by Chris Bowers, Sat May 29, 2004 at 04:17:07 PM EDT
He's still not at Dean level, but Kerry's grassroots support is coming along nicely.
Meetup Totals as of 8 p.m., EDT
Percentage of Funding from $2,000+ donors:
Percentage of Funding from donors of $200 or less:
Considering their different levels of fundraising, this does mean Bush has raised more money from small donors than Kerry ($44M to $35M). In total, however, Democratic Presidential candidates have raised far more money from small donors than Bush ($90M to $44M). Also, Kerry recently passed Dean's small donor total of $31M.
Kerry may not have started on the largest wave of grassroots support, but the fact is that if we help him get elected he will be less obligated to listen major executives, and more obligated to listen to the Democratic rank and file. Following Kerry's victory on November 2nd, the next four Kerry Meetups, Democracy for America Meetups, and Democratic Party Meetups could be dedicated to developing a list of issues produced and voted on by all those in attendance that we would like to see Kerry address. It would be a sort of netroots platform committee. The Blogosphere could help with the organization, and the final summation could be delivered to the White House on March 2nd, 2005, the one-year anniversary of Super Tuesday. After all, if we are going to help people, we need to demand action from them as well.
by Chris Bowers, Wed May 26, 2004 at 06:46:11 PM EDT
I really shouldn't write articles like this, especially, now that I am "over" the primary season and a strong Kerry backer. But hey, inquiring Deaniac minds want to know!
What if Dean had made a deal with Kucinich, and finished closer to Edwards and Kerry in Iowa? What if there had been no scream the night of the caucus? What if Dean's negatives hadn't temporarily soared? What if Dean had held on for a squeaker victory in New Hampshire by around 34-33, as the LA times 2:00 p.m. exit poll suggested he would? What if, as a result, Dean had become the new "comeback kid," and received the same New Hampshire bounce Kerry received? What would the primary season have looked like?
To find out, read part one of this series, which projects hypothetical primary results from February 3rd until March 1st. Be forewarned: it is a descent into chaos.
by Chris Bowers, Tue May 18, 2004 at 06:17:38 PM EDT
- Oregon Update II (Jerome)
In the mayoral race, there's a bit of a upset in the making, though a run off remains. Jim Francesconi has been favored from the get go, and scared off many other potential challengers. However, Tom Potter actually leads Fancesconi by a slim 40-38 margin. What transformed this race was a couple of key endorsement by Erik Sten, the Willamette Week, and (all but) Howard Dean. I expect that the Phil Busse voters (6%) and James Posey (5%) will be the key to Potter closing the deal, which is likely. The other 10% is scattered amongst about a dozen candidates, most of which are probably not going to look first to the establishment/business candidate Francesconi.
- Oregon Update I (Jerome)
You have to hand it to the Republican Party in Oregon, where prominent minority candidates are running in the GOP primaries, in order to portray a moderate face on their conservative agenda. So far though, it looks like a mixed bag.
In the 5th CD, it's a close contest between Jackie Winters and Jim Zupancic, with Winters getting all of the newspaper endorsements, but Zupancic hitting the right conservative notes, especially in his hard hitting ads that portrayed Winters as voting for raising taxes. With 90 of 196 precincts reporting, Zupancic leads Winters by a 52.81% to 47.19% margin.
In the 1st CD, it's going to be Goli Ameri, an Iranian Muslim, challenging David Wu. With 110 of 194 precincts reporting, Ameri leads two other Republicans, who have about 26% and 22% of the vote in the multicultural Beaverton-based district.
As for the outlook, the Democrats are favored in both CD's. Whereas Winters is the moderate, and would have been a strong challenge to Hooley, Zupancic is your typical GOP conservative that's been beaten by Democrats in Oregon over and over again; the 5th CD will not be close. The 1st CD will be closer, but not by much. It's Wu's to lose, and there's enough of a redneck vote in the Coastal Range area, that it's doubtful that Ameri can count on the base she would need for an upset.
- Follow the election results here.
by Chris Bowers, Fri May 14, 2004 at 02:14:52 PM EDT
I am a recent convert to the Democratic party. While I voted for Clinton in 1992 as an apple-cheeked 18-year old, until the Blogosphere and the Dean campaign entered my life, I had regularly associated with radical left-wing parties and groups rather than Democratic ones. Ideologically, I have not changed drastically from my radical days, but despite this I do not feel out of place in a party that includes the Democratic Leadership Council (as I explained in a different article
). This is the story of how I changed, and why I believe we all need to embrace personal experience as an important part of the political process.
Click on the extended entry to read the story
by Chris Bowers, Tue May 11, 2004 at 07:38:25 PM EDT
According to Bloomberg, Kerry has narrowed his VP list
to a very safe, very predictable five:
The only real surprise on this list, as far as I can tell, is the lack of Landrieu and Richardson. Otherwise, it is boring, dull, unexciting, and bland. Whatever happened to "surprise" picks, or at least claiming that minorties and/or women were still being considered until the end?
The article also mentions that Kerry will make his selection in June. That seems smart: receive a June bounce from the VP pick, and then a July bounce from the convention. Will Kerry be up by 15 come August 1st?
Take the obligatory VP poll.