by Jonathan Singer, Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 04:14:35 PM EDT
There has been a number of questions floating around the web surrounding reports from the Clinton campaign that it had raised $10 million dollars in the 24 hours following the closing of the polls in Pennsylvania. You can read some thoughts on this from Marc Ambinder. One theory, posited by an Ambinder reader (which the reporter puts up on his blog), is that a significant portion of the campaign's take since Tuesday night came from dollars earmarked for the general election -- i.e. contributions from donors who had already given the maximum $2,300 for the primary campaign. However, the Clinton campaign says this is not the case.
This evening, a source at the Clinton campaign informed me that "virtually all" of the donations received by the campaign since the polls closed in Pennsylvania Tuesday night were for the primary. Unlike contributions earmarked for the general election, which cannot be used until after the Democratic National Convention, money earmarked for the primaries can be used immediately.
In recent months, a significant portion of the contributions into the Clinton campaign have come from contributers who had already maxed out for the primary election. As of the end of last month, more than two-thirds of the money the Clinton campaign had in the bank was earmarked for the general election (just about $9.3 million of the roughly $31.7 million the campaign had in cash-on-hand could be used for the primaries). Because the Clinton campaign also held a large amount of debt -- for the third straight month, the campaign entered the month in the red -- an infusion of $10 million, most of which could be used now could help enable the campaign to continue at least through the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6th and perhaps even longer.
by Jonathan Singer, Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 11:21:37 AM EDT
Gallup has some new numbers:
The Gallup Poll Daily tracking update based on April 21-23 interviewing shows Barack Obama holding a narrower advantage over Hillary Clinton than he has in recent days, 49% to 44%, in nationwide Democratic nomination preferences.
These are the first results to include any interviewing following Clinton's impressive victory in the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday. Though the gap between the two has narrowed -- down to five percentage points from 10 and 8-point Obama leads the prior two days -- Obama remains ahead. Notably, he outpolled Clinton slightly in Wednesday night interviewing, the first night of post-Pennsylvania primary data collection. The full impact of the Pennsylvania results will be apparent in the coming days, though the initial indications are that it has helped Clinton, so far her win has not dramatically altered the dynamics of the race at the national level.
Also according to the Gallup polling, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue to poll neck-and-neck with John McCain in theoretical general election matchups -- a remarkable piece of data considering that both Democrats are hitting one another (and in the case of Obama, he is being double teamed by both Clinton and McCain) while McCain has been able to solidify his position with the Republican base effectively unabated.
But perhaps even more interesting, at least for his moment, is the initial indication that Obama continues to lead nationally even in the wake of his loss in Pennsylvania and the subsequent flow of positive media attention for Clinton. To underscore, this is an initial indication -- one day of polling a conclusion does not make, and, what's more, the margin of error for the subsample of a single day's polling of likely Democratic voters nationwide by Gallup is in the neighborhood of plus or minus 5 percentage points, so an Obama lead of less than 10 points in a single day is not statistically significant.
That said, the first indication we now have is that Obama continues to lead nation-wide among likely Democratic voters (whatever that means...) despite having lost by 9 points in Pennsylvania Tuesday. It will be worth watching to see if this trend continues as the week progresses.
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:08:22 PM EDT
Here are some actual numbers:
√ Hillary Clinton: 1,258,245 votes (55 percent)
Barack Obama: 1,042,297 votes (45 percent)
99 percent of precincts reporting (as of 2:03 AM Eastern)
by architek, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:29:02 PM EDT
As far as I can tell, Hillary Clinton is now ahead of Barack Obama in national popular votes in the primaries to date, as well as of the electoral votes of the states she has won.
Obama was ahead by 71,000 going into the PA primary, but now she has just pulled ahead..
(sorry that this is such a short diary, but I thought THIS deserved mention!)
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:50:59 PM EDT
NBC News has called the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Hillary Clinton, as has Fox News. No call thus far from CNN...