by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:31:47 PM EDT
Consider this a thread on Barack Obama's speech following his North Carolina primary victory from Raleigh.
Update [2008-5-6 21:37:47 by Todd Beeton]:Again, Obama is taking on the unpatriotic BS head on.
I love this country too much to see it divided and distracted at this critical moment in history. I believe in our ability to perfect this nation because it's the only reason I'm standing here today. I know the promise of America because I've lived it...it is the light of opportunity that led my father across an ocean, it's the founding ideals that the flag draped over my father's coffin stand for. It's life and liberty and the pursuit of happiness. In this country justice can be won against the greatest odds...and when we are told that we can not bring about the change that we seek, we answer in one voice: Yes we can!
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:58:27 PM EDT
41,468-vote margin for Clinton
Hillary Clinton: 461,252 votes (52 percent)
Barack Obama: 419,784 votes (48 percent)
With 71 percent of precincts reporting at 9:25 PM Eastern
Update [2008-5-6 21:15:22 by Jonathan Singer]: NBC News now classifying this contest as "too close to call". This differs from a "too early to call" classification in that there is now sufficient data upon which to make a call, but the results are simply too close to make a projection.
Update [2008-5-6 21:17:19 by Jonathan Singer]: In his speech on air now, Obama congratulated Clinton on her apparent win in Indiana, jumping the nets. We continue to keep an eye on the results...
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:32:02 PM EDT
CBS News has called Indiana for Hillary Clinton. No call from NBC News, CNN, or a number of the other nets. More as we have it...
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:32:49 PM EDT
Just in; results to come... ABC News calls it a rout.
Update [2008-5-6 19:48:32 by Todd Beeton]:From CNN's NC exit polls, Obama over-performed among black voters, winning them 91-6, and Hillary Clinton underpeformed among white voters, winning them by a margin of 59-36. And remarkably there really was not much of a gender gap. Barack Obama won men 57-39 and he won women 54-42. A friend tells me that if these exit polls hold up it will translate to a 13 or so point win for Obama.
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:19:24 AM EDT
Today is obviously election day in North Carolina and Indiana, but looking ahead to Oregon, which appears to be about the only remaining even medium-sized state after today's contests that will be seriously contested by both campaigns, new numbers show Barack Obama leading, though not overwhelmingly.
The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Oregon Democratic Presidential Primary shows Barack Obama enjoying a twelve-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It's Obama 51%, Clinton 39%.
Clinton has a statistically insignificant lead among senior citizens while Obama leads among younger voters. Obama does best among upper income voters while
Clinton's strongest support comes from those who earn less than $40,000 annually.
Obama is viewed favorably by 78% of the state's Likely Primary Voters, Clinton by 71%. Fifty percent (50%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% of Clinton voters hold a positive view of Obama.
Eighty-two percent (82%) say that if Clinton is the nominee, they will vote for her over John McCain in the fall. An identical number, 82%, say they will vote for Obama over McCain.
At this point there simply is not enough public data available at this juncture to get a complete feel on the race in Oregon. SurveyUSA released two polls, one early in the month and one later on, showing Obama leading by 10 points and 6 points in the state, respectively. The more recent SUSA poll, in particular, doesn't exactly gibe with the results from Rasmussen (though differences in methodology as well as standard sampling errors might account for some of that.
For whatever it's worth, Rasmussen did better than any other pollster in nailing the gubernatorial race in Oregon in 2006, with its final poll showing Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski defeating his Republican challenger Ron Saxton 51 percent to 44 percent (the final spread was 51-43), so I'm not terribly inclined to write off these numbers. Nevertheless, it's probably worth waiting for at least another poll or two to emerge out of the state -- particularly polling conducted after today's results (though not too long after because balloting in Oregon has already started) -- before making a real hard prediction about the state of the race in the Beaver state.