Clinton, Obama Perform Statistically the Same Among Jewish Voters

According to new polling from Gallup, American Jewish voters, who have tended to overwhelmingly support Democrats in elections going back at least about a century, are no more likely to defect from the Democratic ranks should Barack Obama be the party's nominee rather than Hillary Clinton.

Barack Obama is faring better than might be expected among Jewish voters, beating John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily general-election matchups and trailing Hillary Clinton only slightly in Jewish Democrats' preferences for the Democratic nomination.


In terms of the general election, Jewish voters nationwide are nearly as likely to say they would vote for Obama if he were the Democratic nominee running against the Republican McCain (61%), as to say they would vote for Clinton (66%).


According to Gallup's aggregated tracking data for all of April, 61% of Jewish voters would vote for Obama, much higher than the national average of 45% of all registered voters.

Rather than declining between March and April, support for Obama versus McCain among Jewish voters has increased slightly, from a 23-point margin in favor of Obama (58% to 35%) to a 29-point margin (61% to 32%).

The results are similar for Clinton, who received 66% of the vote from Jewish Democrats in April, compared with 27% for McCain -- a 39-point lead. Clinton led McCain by 29 points in March, 61% to 32%.

Gallup does not provide a margin of error for this aggregation of polling data, but doing the math it looks like the margin of error for this data is about plus or minus 3.5 percentage points -- meaning that the difference between the general election performance among American Jews between Clinton and Obama is statistically insignificant.

Now the fact that Obama beats McCain only by a 61 percent to 32 margin among Jewish voters might be a cause for concern for some. After all, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by a 78 percent to 22 percent margin (.pdf) within this demographic in the two-party vote. However, it's well worth noting that polling at the outset of the Democratic race in late 2003/early 2004 showed Kerry, as well as most of the other Democratic contenders at the time, beating Bush among American Jews by only about 60 percent to 30 percent margin. Even Joe Lieberman only carried the Jewish vote in a hypothetical head-to-head match up at the time by a 71 percent to 24 percent margin. And as late in the game as September 2004, polling indicated that Kerry only led Bush in this subgroup by a 69 percent to 24 percent margin even though he ended wup winning by about a net dozen points more.

So when you actually delve into the numbers, it becomes clear that these numbers actually bode fairly well for Obama's chances among Jewish voters in November. What's more, these numbers seriously undercut the notion that Obama has a serious problem among American Jews resulting from false smear emails or whatever else.

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NBC News: Clinton Apparent Winner in Indiana

NBC News calls Hillary Clinton the "apparent" winner in Indiana. Fox News is projecting a Clinton victory in the Hoosier state, as is CNN.

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MSNBC Calls Indiana For Hillary Clinton

The first two thread on Indiana are full, so time for a third one. Here are the numbers from CNN:

22,019-vote margin for Clinton

√ Hillary Clinton: 637,389 votes (51 percent)
Barack Obama: 615,370 votes (49 percent)

With 99 percent of precincts reporting at 1:10 AM Eastern

Lake County, home to the city of Gary, is beginning to report, and thus far with about a quarter of the vote there tallied Obama is leading by a 3-to-1 margin. This is a real nail-biter, so stay tuned...

Update [2008-5-7 0:19:33 by Jonathan Singer]: Note, too, that there remains about a third of the vote in Monroe County -- home to the city of Bloomington (and thus Indiana University) -- a county where Obama is leading by about a 2-to-1 margin. NBC News estimates that as many as 10,000 votes could remain there, as well, so Obama might not need to pick up the entire remaining margin from Lake County (and the city of Gary).

Update [2008-5-7 0:23:28 by Jonathan Singer]: It looks like there may be a couple/few thousand votes remaining to be counted from 2 percent of precincts in Marion County, where the city of Indianapolis is located. At present, Obama is leading in the county by a 67 percent to 33 percent margin.

Update [2008-5-7 0:39:16 by Jonathan Singer]: Monroe County (Bloomington/IU) is now basically all in, 56 percent of the precincts in Lake County (Gary) are in, and Obama has cut the lead to a little under 17,000 votes. Only 5 percent of precincts statewide remain, so Obama might not be able to quite make it to even (at least tonight before all of the absentee and provisional ballots are counted). But we shall wait and see...

Update [2008-5-7 1:12:51 by Jonathan Singer]: We're up to 99 percent of precincts reporting (though still 2 percent in Marion County [Indianapolis] not reporting), and Clinton's lead has bumped up from about 17,000 votes to about 22,000 votes. Just about all of the vote in Lake County has now been counted. Looks like this might be about it for the night -- about a 2 percentage point victory (or perhaps slightly less, closer to 1.75 percentage points, to be precise) for Clinton.

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Indiana Results Thread Part Deux

The previous thread is getting a bit full, so time for a second one on the Indiana results. Here are the numbers from CNN:

38,311-vote margin for Clinton

Hillary Clinton: 574,643 votes (52 percent)
Barack Obama: 536,332 votes (48 percent)

With 88 percent of precincts reporting at 11:33 PM Eastern

Still waiting on Gary. For what it's worth, the mayor of the city is suggesting that Obama might have enough votes there to make up his small deficit elsewhere in the state.

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Hillary Clinton Indiana Speech Thread

Consider this a thread on Hillary Clinton's speech from Indianapolis following the Indiana primary.

Update [2008-5-6 22:58:31 by Todd Beeton]:Unity ticket alert. Note her use of the pronoun "we."

And I think standing up for working people is about the American dream and the Democratic Party. And I think standing up for the middle class is about who we are and who we can be if we stick together. So it is important that as we go forward in this campaign that we recognize that we are all on the same team. We're going to be standing up for you. We're going to be looking for a way to turn this country around and bring it back to what it should stand for and be all about. Better futures for you and your children, solving the problems that affect us here in America. I know that people are watching this race and their wondering, I win, he wins, I win, he wins. It's so close and I think that says a lot about how excited and passionate our supporters are and how intent so many Americans are to taking their country back. But I can assure you that no matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November. And I know that Senator Obama feels the same way.

I have to say, I don't think this leaves any doubt that if Obama does win this nomination, that Hillary Clinton would accept the VP slot. Am I reading too much into this?

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