by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:32:52 PM EDT
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:01:27 PM EDT
by Jonathan Singer, Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:24:20 AM EDT
SurveyUSA has released its final round of polling out of Oregon gauging Democratic voters' sentiments about the presidential primary going on in the state (with an all vote-by-mail system, Oregon's election day is effectively two weeks long), and the numbers look like this:
The overall margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points, so Barack Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton in the state is statistically significant. Doing some back of the napkin math, it appears that the margin of error for the subsample of voters who have already turned in their ballots is roughly plus or minus 4.46 percentage points, meaning that Obama's lead in this category is just statistically significant as well.
Other pollsters who, to the best of my recollection, have never polled in Oregon before and thus do not necessarily have a good grasp as to how to poll such a drawn out election (or at least have the experience doing it before) show the race to be tighter, within the margin of error. However, with the pollsters who actually have a history of polling in the state (SUSA, but also national pollster Rasmussen Reports and Oregon pollster Tim Hibbits) pretty unanimous in having Obama up by a solid double-digit margin, it's hard to see this race being a tossup. What's more, although rallies are not generally the best metric for gauging support (a whole lot more voters don't go to rallies than do), the fact that Obama apparently drew 75,000 people to Waterfront Park in Portland says a lot.
Man, I kind of wish I had gotten up to Portland a day earlier...
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:08:24 AM EDT
Here are the latest results out of Oregon:
Here's SUSA's write up:
Though the results are only slightly more in favor of Obama than SurveyUSA's most recent track point, released 11 days ago, before results of North Carolina and Indiana were known, there is movement in Oregon among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women. Today, Obama leads by 7. See the interactive tracking graph here. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 24 points. Among voters older than Republican John McCain, Clinton leads, but just barely, and by a lot less than she had. See the interactive tracking graph here. 4 in 10 of likely voters have already returned a ballot. Among the actual voters, Clinton and Obama tie. Obama's advantage comes entirely from the 6 in 10 likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they will return their ballot before 8 pm on Primary Day, but have not yet done so. All voting in Oregon is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08.
Oregon will have the largest convention delegation of any of the remaining states or territories holding contests here on out (though Puerto Rico has slightly more pledged delegates). Perhaps more importantly, it's the only "blue" state remaining to vote, having backed every Democratic presidential nominee since Michael Dukakis and not having elected a Republican to a statewide elected position (other than Gordon Smith) in about a decade. So while there will be talk about tonight's results in West Virginia and those next week in Kentucky (and those from the other remaining primaries and caucuses), it looks like Oregon might be the only state left in play that will actually be key to putting a Democrat in the White House in November. With one week of balloting to go in the state (it conducts its vote completely by mail), this should be interesting.
Update [2008-5-13 17:58:32 by Jonathan Singer]: Obama is up 20 points in a Portland Tribune poll.
by Jonathan Singer, Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:52:42 AM EDT
In the flow of endorsements in recent days and weeks -- and indeed over the past few months as well -- one thing we haven't seen is very many Senate candidates come out and endorse in the presidential race. There have been a few -- both Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick in Oregon have endorsed Barack Obama, for instance. But by and large, top-tier Senate candidates have refrained from wading into the presidential contest, whether out of fear of alienating half of the party or a desire not to make press in that way. Yet today, an endorsement from a Democratic Senate hopeful and Congressman (and thus a superdelegate to boost) for Obama.
Congressman Tom Allen is throwing his support behind Sen. Barack Obama as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Allen, a superdelegate to this summer's Democratic National Convention, said Monday he believes Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton are both "supremely qualified" to be president. Allen has been friends for decades with Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton.
But Allen says most of the nation's primary voters have spoken, and that the time has come to bring a "graceful end" to the primary campaign.
Thus far, people like Mark Warner and Tom Udall and Mark Udall -- the top-tier of Democratic Senate hopefuls -- have not come out and endorsed either candidate for President. As alluded to before, in the eyes of most Senate campaigns, the risks of such an endorsement outweigh the potential benefits. Or at least they did.
It remains to be seen if the Allen endorsement foreshadows more to come -- if it is a dipping of the toe in water, in a sense -- or if it simply represents one American coming to a public decision about his views on the race for the Democratic nomination. In the coming weeks, we will have to wait to see if any more Udalls or Warners come out and publicly support either Obama or Hillary Clinton. But if others do follow in Allen's footsteps, we could see a new stage of coalescing in the Democratic presidential primary in which the campaign class of the party, as well as candidates who will actually face the voters in competitive general elections in the fall, are ready to see one nominee emerge.