Delegate Counts Out of Tonight

A few things just in from Chuck Todd on MSNBC, who gets this stuff really well:

  • NBC News now has Barack Obama up 1,078 to 969 in pledged delegates over Hillary Clinton. After tonight that number could be about 1,128 to 1,009.
  • Importantly, though, when you add in the superdelegates, Obama is still projected to lead 1,306 delegates to 1,270.
  • Obama could net a gain of 15 to 20 more delegates next week out of Wisconsin and Hawaii.
  • If this pace keeps up, Clinton will have to start winning with 60 percent margins nationwide in order to win the nomination end up with more pledged delegates than Obama in the end of the day.
  • At this point, Obama now has received more votes than Clinton -- even when the votes of Florida (where he didn't campaign) and Michigan (where he wasn't even on the ballot) are considered.

Interesting stuff...

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CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering Superdelegates

Marc Ambinder this morning brings us word of CBS News' new delegate count, which includes superdelegates but not Michigan and Florida:

Barack Obama 1,134 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 1,131 delegates

2,025 delegates are required to clinch the nomination

Barack Obama was presumed to be able to take an overall delegate lead after Tuesday night after the votes had been counted in Virginia, Maryland and here in the District of Columbia, each of which he appears to lead in (see: Pollster.com). But now, at least according to CBS News' tabulations, Obama has already overcome Hillary Clinton's 74-delegate lead among superdelegates (among CBS News) to take an overall lead -- albeit a very narrow one -- in the race for the Democratic nomination. This means that if the polling is correct and Obama is on the inside track in tomorrow's contests (perhaps a big if, in light of problems with earlier polling this cycle, but perhaps not), he should be able to pick up a decent share of the 168 pledged delegates at stake, and thus pad his lead instead of merely going over the top of Clinton for the first time.

Just to add... It's worth noting that not every news organization has the same tally as CBS News. Our tally, down on the bottom right, still seems to have Clinton up, and on MSNBC this morning Chuck Todd alluded to a Clinton lead that may be below 20 delegates when superdelegates are factored in (paraphrasing).

Update [2008-2-11 8:42:51 by Jerome Armstrong]: MyDD uses the counts done by both the 2008 Democratic Convention Watch for its superdelegate count, and TheGreenPapers for the delegate count, both of which have more credibility [documentation + transparency] than CBS does. Currently they show Clinton leading by 43 or 169 delegates, depending on whether you count Florida and Michigan (I do).

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Delegates Out of South Carolina

Per MSNBC:

Barack Obama 25 (63 total)
Hillary Clinton 12 (48 total)
John Edwards 8 (26 total)

Out of South Carolina, it looks like Obama's lead among pledged delegates estimated to be 15 -- a lead that does not include superdelegates or estimates of delegates likely to be seated later out of Michigan and Florida (which are not yet counted).

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Delegates Out of Nevada -- Obama to Outpace Clinton?

From MSNBC's First Read:

The following delegates are allocated in the NV Democratic caucus:
Clinton -- 13
Obama -- 12

None remaining to be allocated.

The Obama campaign, via email, disagrees:

Senator Obama was awarded 13 delegates to Senator Clinton's 12.

A statement released under Obama's name reads as follows:

We came from over twenty-five points behind to win more national convention delegates than Hillary Clinton because we performed well all across the state, including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled.

Not quite sure what to make of this divergence. I'm trying to follow up and find out exactly what's up. At best for Clinton, it looks like there will be an overall tie between her and Obama in terms of pledged delegates, with 37 apiece for the two candidates. If the Obama campaign is to be believed, the Illinois Senator might still hold a 38 delegate to 36 delegate lead out of Nevada. More to come as I find out...

Update [2008-1-19 18:32:3 by Jonathan Singer]: I've gotten a confirmation from the Obama campaign that indeed they project winning 13 delegates to Clinton's 12 -- in effect a win even though the New York Senator won statewide. Ari Melber over at The Nation is reporting as much as well:

A current estimate of the national convention delegate count is below, though not all precincts have fully reported.

District 1 Clinton 3, Obama 3

District 2 (Washoe) Clinton 1, Obama 2

District 2 (Rural) Clinton 0, Obama 1

District 2 (Clark) Clinton 1, Obama 1

District 3 (Clark) Clinton 2, Obama 2

At-Large Clinton 2, Obama 1

PLEO Clinton 3, Obama 3

Very interesting stuff. If this is indeed a delegate battle (leaving aside for a moment issues of momentum, which are extremely important), this could actually be somewhat of a win for Obama. Interesting.

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