No Sure Bet!

Iowa, New Hampshire are still a year away, yet all the political types are talking about Obama and Clinton and now Edwards. We have a long way to go before selecting the Democratic nominee so we all need to slow down and smell the roses. After all it is Valentines Day.

Here in Southern Illinois, in the region where I came of age in the 1950s and '60s, the home of the Paul's (Paul Powell and Paul Simon) and Glenn Poshard, I hear a lot about Hillary Clinton and it is not good. The local Democrats are lining up behind Obama, most because he is from Illinois. But there is very weak support for Senator Clinton.

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NY-SD7 Post-Election Numbers With Maps

From the Working Families Party department of targeting, here are maps of turnout percentage (pdf) and Craig Johnson's percentage of the vote (pdf) in the recent State Senate special election on Long Island.

Serious number junkies will want to look at the pdf versions, but the basic breakdown is blue means a high percentage on both maps, green is a medium percentage and yellow is a low percentage.

Turnout first:


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Is Canvassing a Waste of Time?

I did a bit of election-day GOTV canvassing for Craig Johnson's successful NY state senate campaign. While I have a strong aversion to being yelled at by strangers and long ago gave up on phone banking, I was asked to canvass targeted Democratic-registered voters a neighborhood and decided to give it a try. While the experience was not without interesting moments, it was, on the whole, extremely unpleasant. It also got me wondering whether the traditional, intrusive GOTV tactics of canvassing and phone banking in a media-saturated world may be ineffective at best and strategically detrimental at worst.

I'm curious whether anyone in the MyDD community has hard, empirical evidence about the effectiveness of canvassing and phone banking. While there are a wide variety of anecdotes of individuals who seem to have responded positively to calls or visits, I wonder whether there is any data that can isolate the contribution of canvassing/phone-banking to actual votes within the context of a larger campaign effort and larger social and political forces. It's something we just seem to accept as part of politics without ever asking whether it makes a positive contribution toward the larger goal.

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NY-07: Johnson Wins!!! Losing to O'Connell

According to the Nassau County board of elections, Johnson leads O'Connell 7,902 to 5,257, with  95 ED out of 264 EDS counted.

I have no idea how to read these numbers, but lipris is happy.  Nassau County was one of the strongest Republican machines in American history until very recently, a kind of reverse Tammany Hall.  Tom Suozzi, who was destroyed by Spitzer in the NY gubernatorial primary, helped defeat the machine as the first Democratic County Executive since 1971, and only the second since WWII.  Suozzi is something of a reformer.  He and Spitzer don't like each other much, so it would be ironic if Spitzer consolidated his power in New York state by wrapping up the Senate in Suozzi's county.

Ah, politics.  I wish I could have some fancy numbers for you, but this is such an odd election situation that it's tough.  And besides I don't want to encroach on Chris's turf.  

Culture Kitchen is hosting a chat on the election results.

UPDATE: 231 EDS out of 264 EDS IN RACE

Johnson 20,115
O'Connell 20,842


JOHNSON 24,666
O'Connell 22,345

UPDATE: Final numbers are in:
JOHNSON 26,354
O'Connell 22,919

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Super Sunday: Spitzer, Sen Schumer campaign for open NYS Senate seat

Governor Eliot Spitzer and Senator Chuck Schumer are coming out to Long Island to campaign with Craig Johnson (D-WFP) today as Craig launches his "Moving New York Forward - 33 Stops in 33 Hours" tour.  Craig Johnson (D-WFP) is running in the Feb 6 special election for an open State Senate seat in New York's Seventh District on Long Island.

Starting this morning and going until the voting starts, Craig is campaigning in every one of the 33 villages in the Seventh District, leaving no stone unturned to Get Out the Vote.  The tour will take Craig to morning bagel stops and popular lunch spots, religious services and Super Bowl parties.

Come out and meet Craig and help the campaign Get Out The Vote!

Can't make it out? Help with a donation.

The Johnson campaign Sunday schedule is after the jump.

2 days until Election Day!

Volunteer | Donate

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