Chuck Schumer Asks For One Final Push To 60

This is interesting. Just got a fundraising ask from Chuck Schumer asking for help delivering a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Included in the e-mail are some public polls of the 9 most competitive Senate races (Virginia and New Mexico excluded.) Below are the 7 most competitive of those:

Alaska

Mark Begich 58
Ted Stevens 36

Georgia

Jim Martin 46
Saxby Chambliss 47

Kentucky

Bruce Lunsford 48
Mitch McConnell 48

Minnesota

Al Franken 42
Norm  Coleman 38

Mississippi

Ronnie Musgrove 46
Roger Wicker 47

North Carolina

Kay Hagan 53
Elizabeth Dole 44

Oregon

Jeff Merkley 51
Gordon Smith 43

While the chosen polls no doubt pick the best of the bunch for Democrats, they tell most of the public polling story:

  • post-indictment, Begich rises to double digit lead over Stevens
  • Merkley and Hagan running away with it in the end
  • Martin in a dead heat with Chambliss
  • Franken up within a few points over Coleman

Which brings us to those Mississippi and Kentucky numbers, which, while certainly bullish, are actually not that far outside of the Pollster.com trend estimates (Musgrove performs +4 better than Pollster and Lunsford performs +3.1.)

Personally, I'm predicting we'll win 8 seats by tomorrow night with Georgia set for a run-off to determine that 60th seat, but  the picture Schumer is painting here is one in which 60 true Democratic votes, i.e. without Lieberman, is a distinct possibility. And as unlikely as it seems now, I keep thinking back to 2006 and how unlikely it was that we'd get that 6th seat.

You guys really rocked our Road to 60 ActBlue page and I can't tell you how much we appreciate it. A total of 317 supporters gave $26,312 to our Road to 60 Senate candidates. Now, if you'd like to continue to help our Senate candidates reach that road to 60, I'd recommend donating directly to the DSCC. From Schumer's e-mail:

I assure you that every dollar you send to the DSCC before 9:00 PM tonight - even as little as $5 - will be rushed out immediately to campaigns in the closest races with the greatest need.  They'll use your money to make certain that every Democratic vote is counted.  Any amount can make a real difference.

Give right now and a group of Democratic senators will triple your contribution, meaning your $5 goes three times as far bringing voters to the polls. That's the only thing that matters.

Donate HERE.

[editor's note, by Todd Beeton]I mistakenly referred to these polls as "internal DSCC polls." They are not. I've revised the post accordingly.

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Mitch McConnell has lost it

This is hilarious. Barefoot and Progressive has all the details. Way to go though, Chuck Schumer, you've clearly gotten under the Minority Leader's skin:

...the new ad against Chuck Schumer shows that Mitch McConnell has lost his cool, going seriously off-message in order to attack his Senate enemy instead of... oh, I don't know... his opponent??? This was purely a reaction in anger, not a clearheaded decision by someone who is focused on the election at hand.
McConnell is running scared, now avoiding all debates against the quasi-Democrat Lunsford (I'll take a q-D over a real Republican any day).

Here's the latest from CQ:

CQ has changed its ratings on four Republican-held Senate seats, and all four in the Dems' favor: Sen. Norm Coleman (MN) has gone from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite"; Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) has gone from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican"; Sen. Saxby Chambliss (GA) has gone from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican"; and the open seat of retiring GOP Sen. John Warner (VA) has gone from "Democrat Favored" to "Safe Democratic."

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Don't Spy On Me

Hillary Clinton could make some news today.

We already know Dodd and Feingold are fighting FISA.

And, to his credit, Harry Reid is opposing the deal:

It is a position that puts the Democratic Senate leader at odds with his own party's presumptive presidential nominee, Barack Obama, who also has pledged to fight for the removal of immunity but will vote yes on the final package.

"I am not going to vote for the FISA bill," said the Nevada Democrat. "There are people, Mr. President, who have worked on this FISA matter for three months or more and again the administration worked with them. Did they, on the FISA bill, move enough to make me vote for the bill? The answer is no."

But now comes something a little more interesting. Chuck Schumer, Clinton's close Senate ally and a member or the leadership, is also voting no on the capitulation:

Chuck Schumer's spokesman tells us that he's going to oppose the current version of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act legislation, which immunizes telcom companies for past implementation of Bush's requests and expands the government's capacity to surveil without court approval.

If Schumer backs an effort to remove the immunity provisions, that could be a big deal. Obama has come out against those provisions, but Schumer is a strategic signal caller in the Senate. The key question: Will Schumer support a filibuster on removing immunity from the bill?

Hillary Clinton was welcomed back to the Senate this week. And with two members of her caucus leadership standing against the deal, she could return with a bang.

Update [2008-6-25 15:58:57 by Josh Orton]: Now might be a great time to head over and buy one of Feingold's great "Don't Spy On Me" shirts, which look like the photo above.

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Congressional Democrats Forgetting Key Part of Obama's Relief Package?

CQ Politics is reporting on the Democratic leadership's desire for a second package to strengthen the economy that largely lines up with Barack Obama's plans. But are Congressional Dems omitting aid to state governments, one of the key planks of Obama's plan?

Democrats have been contemplating a second effort to inject money this year into the faltering economy. The idea appears to have gained traction, particularly among congressional leaders, since Monday when presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois outlined a $50 billion stimulus proposal that will serve as the centerpiece of a two-week economic tour of battleground states.

Though the prospects for a second stimulus package are slim, the debate gives congressional Democrats an opportunity to rally around Obama.

The massive economic stimulus package enacted in February focused on tax breaks for businesses and rebates for individuals and families.

Obama has proposed a second round of rebate checks, an extension of unemployment insurance, aid to state governments and a new $10 billion fund to help stem the tide of home foreclosures.

He also proposed increasing investment in infrastructure such as roads, schools and bridges.

"There's a need for additional targeted stimulus," said Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad , D-N.D.

Schumer said infrastructure investment and a second round of rebate checks could be part of the new package, which Democrats are likely to unveil after the July Fourth recess.

State government spending is a key prop holding up the economy during a recession. Dem leaders might want to check out the NYT, which pointed out earlier this week:

At $1.8 trillion annually in a $14 trillion economy, the states and municipalities spend almost twice as much as the federal government, including the cost of the Iraq war. When librarians, lifeguards, teachers, transit workers, road repair crews and health care workers disappear, or airport and school construction is halted, the economy trembles.

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Chuck Schumer to MyDD on Moving Forward

Following Hillary Clinton's remarks from the National Building Museum earlier this afternoon, I had a moment to ask Senator Chuck Schumer, an early and ardent supporter of the Clinton campaign, for his message moving forward to the MyDD community and the netroots more broadly.


powered by ODEO

Jonathan Singer: Can you speak to the online supporters, the people online who are so strong for Hillary, who don't want to see her leave, as a strong Hillary supporter yourself?

Sen. Chuck Schumer: As a strong Hillary support I say, look, I was for Hillary all the way. I was sort of the first Senator to endorse her and I guess I'll be the last off the bandwagon, which I guess will be tomorrow. But, having said that, I would say to all of the people online, there's too much at stake to sit this out, to be angry, to be bitter. There is too much at stake. A Supreme Court with more Alitos and Roberts. A continuation of the war in Iraq. A failure to have a healthcare policy that helps people. A failure to have an energy policy that frees us from foreign oil. All these are such huge things that we have to do what Hillary said there, which is overcome, not look back, even though there are lot's of disappointments, but look forward.

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