14 New Polls (4 Senate, 10 House) From CIS

The Right-Wing Anti-immigration group, the Center for Immigration Studies, has 14 new polls out from 10 different House districts and 4 different Senate races. The polls focus on immigration, but also ask which candidates the poll respondents plan to vote for in these 14 races. The polls are all from about the time the Foley scandal broke, with polling done both before and after the scandal (Foley resigned on September 29th). Generally speaking, the Senate polls seem to have been conducted before Foley broke, while the House polls were done shortly after.

CIS did not report candidate percentages, which I calculated from the raw crosstabs in the "detailed breakdown" for all the polls. If anyone wants to check my math, that would be greatly appreciated.

Having just glanced over the results, some of the samples seem to skew a bit to the R side, so keep that in mind, along with the Right-Wing leanings of CIS. The 14 races polled are MO-Sen, PA-Sen, NJ-Sen, MT-Sen, AZ-05, CT-04, IN-08, KY-04, PA-06, TX-17, LA-03, GA-08, CO-07, and OH-06.

For the results, see the flipside.

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CT-04: First Debate Goes To Farrell (D) By Castration

Thanks to dailyKos diarist dvogel001 whose diary alerted me to the first CT-04 debate between Republican incumbent Chris Shays and Democratic challenger Diane Farrell, which aired on CSPAN yesterday.

For a primer on the race, check out my first CT-04 diary.

The debate over the flip...

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CT-04: 'Congresswoman Diane Farrell' Sure Has A Nice Ring To It

As a former resident of CT-04 and as someone who voted for Republican incumbent Congressman Chris Shays long long ago, I have followed this race with particular interest. Shays stood up to the Republican leadership admirably during the impeachment circus but over the last few years, he has enabled this administration's failed war policy, lending credibility through his support. He has done little to stand up to the leadership and, certainly, as a moderate in a caucus dominated by conservatives, is impotent even with his seniority.

It's time for him to go and for his excellent Democratic opponent, Diane Farrell, to replace him in Washington.

More over the flip.

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building a netroots wave

Lynn Allen at Evergreen Politics had a must-read essay this week called Transformational Candidates.  In that essay, Lynn lays out the five qualities that epitomize what makes a great netroots candidate:

  • They work for a progressive agenda.
  • They are incorruptible.
  • They are willing to kick ass.
  • They are leaders.
  • They are supported by the netroots.
  • Well, Lynn's term transformational candidates itself kicks ass and certainly whups the "node races" term I floated here last week.  Given that, I'd like to take her concept and try to weave it back into a parallel theme that I've been working on: building a netroots wave.

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    New Congressional Quarterly Ratings: Very Good News

    Congressional Quarterly recently updated its 2006 Projections. Of the 18 contests with new ratings, sixteen have moved in our direction.  Both of the seats moving in the Republican direction are already Republican seats, so no change there.

    Of the three Senate seats, Nevada (John Ensign-R) has moved to "Safe Republican," New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman-D) has moved to "Safe Democratic," and Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee-R) is now a tossup.

    In the House, only California-50 (Brian Bilbray-R) is moving toward the Republicans.  Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, and Connecticut-04, all Republican seats, are now tossups.  Arizona-01, Illinois-10, and Nebraska-01 have entered the list, going from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored." Democratic seats in New York-27 and Oregon-05 have dropped off the list, becoming "Safe Democratic." Connecticut-05, Nevada-02, New York-20, Wisconsin-08, and Wyoming-At Large have all been upgraded to "Leans Republican."

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