Here's where the line is drawn and the scales tip. Everyone pretty much believes now that Republicans are going to win back the House. In the Senate, a flip is also possible, but less likely it seems. There are two issues that, if Obama does not draw his own line with Republicans, that he will lose the Party over.
First, the Bush tax-cuts. The notion that this is going to be something where Democrats can keep them in place for those under $250K, and end it for those above, is a false lie for anyone to pretend such a possibility exists. The Republicans will not let that happen-- its all of them, or nothing.
The question is, with a Republican House sure to pass them, will there be 40 Senate Democrats to filibuster the passage of the complete tax package, say, in the spring of 2011? Do the math. Looking at it the other way, are there 13 or so Democrats who the Republicans can count on for cloture? So, that (the complete Bush Tax Cuts) lands on Obama's desk. Lets ponder whether he would veto it or not.
Second, the Afghanistan quagmire. All it takes is to watch this video to realize the disingenuity that Obama has performed (Senator Obama vs. President Obama on Afghanistan); a reckless abandoment of the promise of his entire candidacy. There are knaves who would like to pretend that Obama played a straight hand on Afghanistan with Democrats in the leadup to the 2008 election. We are currently amidst Obama's own Friedman Unit-- one that expires in July 2011.
General Petraeus has played the President like a fiddle with the surge to over 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. The Generals now openly speak of there being no such deadline, and being in Afghanistan until 2020. VP Biden has cowardly backtracked on the deadline he said was set in stone.
That Obama will give us enduring war in Afghanistan beyond July 2011 seems a given. Will it come on the heels of his buckling to the Republican passage of the permanent Bush Tax cut package for millionaires?
And when I say lose the Party, I mean explicitly that he will face a Democratic primary in 2012, and hopefully, denied the nomination.
Some of you still might see this as far-fetched. But watch and see how losing 50 seats, setting the Democrats back below 200 in the House, has a way of changing the perception.
But that alone is probably not enough-- its strike one. The betrayal by Obama over the Bush Tax Cuts (if he doesn't let the entire package expire-- all or nothing will be the only choice) will be the second shoe. Then, the unlikelihood of his getting us out of these damned military occupations, and his being played like a puppet of the Pentagon's desire to build a military empire in Afghanistan, will be the final straw.