AZ-08,CO-07,IA-01,IN-02,IN-08,IN-09,KY-04,NC-11,NM-01

What do they have in common? A new Republican 527 called Americans for Honesty on Issues that has popped up to run negative ads against 9 Democratic House candidates.  Some of the negative ads have already run in Iowa and Colorado.

Candidates and titles of attack ads:

Bruce L Braley IA-01
"No Funds For Troops"

Edwin Permutter CO-07
"Sponsor"

Brad Ellsworth IN-08
"The Tarnished Badge"

Gabrielle Giffords AZ-08
"Path to Citizenship"

Baron P Hill IN-09
"Tagged"

Patricia A Madrid NM-01
"Super-Size"

Heath Shuler NC-11
"Heart in Tennessee"

Kenneth Ray Lucas KY-04
"Six Years & Zip"

Joseph Simon Donnelly IN-02
"Tax Attack"

There's more...

Thursday Polling Thread

Here are some of the latest numbers on the 2006 campaign. If you have a new poll I missed, post it in the comments.

1.Bush and Iraq: CBS has a new poll (PDF) that asks people what they like most about the Bush presidency, and what they like least. The questions are open-ended, and I compliment CBS on allowing the country to speak for itself by not providing a pre-set list of responses. When not prompted, Iraq is the overwhelming choice of what people like least about the Bush presidency, coming in at 38% of those surveyed. Immigration and the economy were tied for second with 5%, and "Don't know" had 14%. Clearly, when they are not prompted with a list of issues, Iraq immediately rises to the surface as the number one issue on the mind of the electorate, and the number one reason they want a change in Washington.

Far more humorously and tellingly, when it came to what people liked most about the Bush Presidency, "Don't Know" was the clear winner at 34%, and "Nothing" was a strong second at 19%. "Handling of terrorism" was third at 11%, down from 48% in January of 2002. Handling of Iraq came in a distant fourth at 4%.

2.AZ-08: A new poll shows Giffords (D) and Graf (R) ahead in their respective primaries. The election is on Tuesday. A generic ballot poll yesterday showed Democrats ahead 50-46. Graf is a real wingnut who has less than 10% of Giffords' cash. If Graf wins instead of Huffman on the Republican side, this race becomes an almost certain Democratic pickup. Go Graf!

3.Senate: Pollster.com new five-poll Senate averages (margin trend in parenthesis):Really hard for me to see a pickup in Missouri right now, since McCaskill has nearly identical name ID and a lot les cash than Talent, but Bob Geiger disagrees.

4.Governors. Jonathan's Governor's forecast is the most optimistic of our three forecasts--and with good reason. Look at these five poll averages from Pollster.com on Governor's races in Republican-held states:
  • Arkansas: Beebe (D) 49%, Hutchinson (R) 41%
  • Colorado: Ritter (D) 46%, Beauprez (R) 39%
  • Ohio: Strickland (D) 53%, Blackwell (R) 37%
This does not include New York and Massachusetts, where Democratic pickups are virtually assured. Those five states alone, which all look very, very good for Democratic pickups, account for over 15% of the national population. Democrats look very, very good to take a majority of Governorships this fall.

Update: Here is an intereting polling update. A former pollster of both George Bush and Joe Lieberman has been found guilty of fraud because she simply made polling data up.

A plea to the DSCC: forget about AZ Senate race

As an Arizona Democrat, I am incredibly disappointed with the campaign of Jim Pederson, who is challenging Republican Jon Kyl.  I will be voting for Jim Pederson, but it is solely an anti-Kyl vote; I despise Jon Kyl and his voting record.  Jim Pederson, however, is an AWFUL candidate--his campaign ads, rather than energize me, actually annoy me.  I would suggest to the DSCC to stop contributing funds to this campaign, as Pederson, in my opinion, has absolutely no chance.  The DSCC should spend its money where it will really make a difference (PA, OH, RI, MO, MT, NV, TN, and unfortunately, MD, NJ, and MI).  As for the other Arizona races, I would suggest contributing to Harry Mitchell for AZ-05, and whichever Democrat wins the nomination in AZ-08; both of these House races are excellent pick-up opportunities in this "trending purple" state.  I think Janet Napolitano will be easily re-elected as Governor but needs our continued support.  Any Arizona residents agree with my assessment and pessimism concerning the AZ Senate race?  

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New Congressional Quarterly Ratings: Very Good News

Congressional Quarterly recently updated its 2006 Projections. Of the 18 contests with new ratings, sixteen have moved in our direction.  Both of the seats moving in the Republican direction are already Republican seats, so no change there.

Of the three Senate seats, Nevada (John Ensign-R) has moved to "Safe Republican," New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman-D) has moved to "Safe Democratic," and Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee-R) is now a tossup.

In the House, only California-50 (Brian Bilbray-R) is moving toward the Republicans.  Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, and Connecticut-04, all Republican seats, are now tossups.  Arizona-01, Illinois-10, and Nebraska-01 have entered the list, going from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored." Democratic seats in New York-27 and Oregon-05 have dropped off the list, becoming "Safe Democratic." Connecticut-05, Nevada-02, New York-20, Wisconsin-08, and Wyoming-At Large have all been upgraded to "Leans Republican."

There's more...

New Congressional Quarterly Ratings: Very Good News

Congressional Quarterly recently updated its 2006 Projections. Of the 18 contests with new ratings, sixteen have moved in our direction.  Both of the seats moving in the Republican direction are already Republican seats, so no change there.

Of the three Senate seats, Nevada (John Ensign-R) has moved to "Safe Republican," New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman-D) has moved to "Safe Democratic," and Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee-R) is now a tossup.

In the House, only California-50 (Brian Bilbray-R) is moving toward the Republicans.  Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, and Connecticut-04, all Republican seats, are now tossups.  Arizona-01, Illinois-10, and Nebraska-01 have entered the list, going from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored." Democratic seats in New York-27 and Oregon-05 have dropped off the list, becoming "Safe Democratic." Connecticut-05, Nevada-02, New York-20, Wisconsin-08, and Wyoming-At Large have all been upgraded to "Leans Republican."

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Diaries

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