LAT Poll: "Obama even/ahead of '04 white vote."

According to a new Bloomberg/LA Times poll out this morning, Barack Obama is doing at least as well, if not better,  among white voters than the previous Democratic nominee for president, John Kerry, did in 2004.


 Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama is running even with or ahead of 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in support by white voters. If those numbers hold, with a changing electorate, pollsters say Obama will win on Nov. 4.

It gets even better below the fold...

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Iowa polls: The winners and the losers!

Now the results are in from Iowa, it is time to see how accurate the many polls were in predicting the actual outcome. This diary intends to offer praises to the winners and lampoon the losers for brazenly shifting the RCP & the pollster average with their ridiculous polls.

First, the Desmoinesregister poll which drawed strong criticisms from virtually all the Democratic field (excerpt Obama who was clearly the beneficiary) was almost perfect. Let's see how did the courageous pollster, Ann Selzer, fares for the top three finishers:

Last Iowa poll of DMR       Actual results (delegates)
Barack Obama     32%        Barack Obama     38%
Hillary Clinton  25%        Hillary Clinton  29%
John Edwards     24%        John Edwards     30%
This was what the pollster, Ann Selzer, predicted and keep in mind this poll was conducted in the period of Dec.27-30, a very precarious time considering the holiday. yet, She was almost perfect! As Tom Beevan bluntly puts it after the Iowa result:"Here's one lesson from tonight: do not mess with Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines register. The Edwards camp, the Clinton camp, and various talking heads poo-pooed her projection that 220,000 would turn out tonight. They said it was a fantasy, and that her model included too many independents and first time caucus goers. (To be fair even the Obama folks didn't think it would be that hight).

Well, with 91.5% of precincts reporting, turnout tonight for the Democrats is 212,000. The woman is good".

I don't see anyone or any campaign, for that matter, apologizes now to her but has she been wrong, they sure would relish the moment to attack her more stingingly than they did when this poll was released. For the republican side, the Desmoinesregister poll was so accurate it's like they saw the actual results before releasing the poll. Give props to Ann Selzer for being a professional with strong ethics. She sticks with her data even when the finding seems outrightly at odd with the conventional wisdom.

Last Iowa poll of DMR    Actual results
Mike Huckabee  32%       Mike Huckabee  34%
Mitt Romney    26%       Mitt romney    25%
John Mcain     13%       John Mcain     13%

Zogby International did a very good job and I must say I was surprised. They don't have a very good record according to survey of their peers but this time they exceeded my expectation and I will trust their finding now for the continuation of the primary until they fumble the ball.

Iowa Zogby poll w. 2nd choices  Actual results
Barack Obama     37.5%          Barack Obama    38%
Hillary Clinton  28.8%          Hillary Clinton 29%
John Edwards     33.7%          John Edwards    30%

I think Edwards' numbers might have been off a bit because of the (rumored)deal between Richardson & Obama. Overall, this poll was right on the money.

Iowa Zogby poll              Actual results
Mike Huckabee   31%          Mike Huckabee  34%
Mitt Romney     25%          Mitt romney    25%
Fred Thomson    11%          Fred Thompson  13%
John Mcain      10%          John Mcain     13%
Strikingly, this poll correctly shows Thompson  narrowly edges Mcain for a third place finish. What more can one asks for.

Insider Advantage have a quick turn around right before the Iowa caucus to show Obama at the lead  after he trails Clinton and Edwards by 8& 7% pts respectively but to their credit, they get both the GOP and DEMS orders of finish correctly for at least the top three.

The CNN polls was completely wrong and as I correctly suspect they were wrong all year as they show Clinton leading poll after poll. The moment of truth came January 3rd and they failed miserably. Check RCP chart to see how they did.

Strategic Vision, the republican pollster, did well but didn't get the right order for the top two republicans.

Finally, the worst poll of the polling industry as confirmed by the Iowa results: The American Research Group. Seriously, they should be banned from doing any more polling. I, for one, didn't trust them as were many others and I will never, ever trust them. Take a look at how they did:

ARG final Iowa poll      Actual results
Barack Obama     25%     Barack Obama     38%
Hillary Clinton  34%     Hillary Clinton  29%
John Edwards     21%     John Edwards     30%

Their leading pollster must have been  drunk when he conducted this poll. In fairness, they did get the right order for the Republicans. Now we know for sure they are charlatans... well,everyone knows that all along.

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ARG NH poll--Clinton 31, Obama 27, Edwards 21

ARG has come out with a new poll of New Hampshire.  Clinton still leads, but the noteworthy item is Edwards' jump from 15% to 21%.  I'm predicting an Edwards win in Iowa, so can he use the momentum to actually win New Hampshire?

The other finding is that Edwards leads among independents with 38%, Obama has 23% and just 17% for Clinton.  So this could punch holes in the theory that the battle for NH independents is between McCain and Obama.

On the GOP side, McCain and Romney remain tied at 30% each, as Rudy could conceivably finis fourth behind Ron Paul.

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NEW ARG IOW POLL

For Dec 26-28 shows:

Clinton - 31%
Obama - 24%
Edwards - 24%

Trends are:

Dec 20-23

Clinton - 34%
Obama - 19%
Edwards - 20%

Dec 16-19

Clinton - 29%
Obama - 25%
Edwards - 18%

link is here:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

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New IOWA poll: Clinton - 34, Edwards - 20, Obama - 19

This could possibly be the first time in history pollsters have to work on December 24th; but with Iowa around the corner we are getting polls at the end of December. Now we will have to take polls with a grain of salt from now on, cause with people going on break and things messed up by holidays, things can get unreliable.

Here is ARG's latest from Iowa. A week ago, Clinton was on top 29% to 25% and 18% for Edwards, while Huckabee was dominating the GOP race 28% to 20% for... McCain (the first poll in pretty much 8-9 months showing McCain ahead of Romney). Here is what we get today:

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