Ouch!

But a great way to get eyeballs, lol.

Sarah Palin's Numbers Tank in Alaska

All I can say is ouch.

Hays Research, 400 adults, 5/4-5/09 (7/24-25/08), MoE +/- 4.9%

Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sarah Palin?

Favorable: 54 percent (80 percent)
Unfavorable:32 42 percent (16 percent)

In the time since Sarah Palin became a national political figure, here favorable rating within her home state of Alaska has dropped more than 25 points while her unfavorable rating has doubled. While a scant 5 percent viewed her negatively last summer, fully one quarter of the state (24.8 percent) now views her in an unfavorable light. With numbers like these, and particularly a trajectory like this, it's not at all beyond the realm of possibility that Palin could find herself in a competitive reelection campaign next year -- or even, for that matter, a competitive re-nomination campaign. Quite the rising star, indeed!

Update [2009-5-7 15:41:59 by Jonathan Singer]: My math was a little off -- Palin's unfavorable numbers are 42 percent, not 32 percent.

There's more...

Murkowski Files for Reelection; Dem Pickup Imminent?

What does a governor with a staggeringly low approval rating of 23 percent do? Why run for reelection, of course.

Up in Alaska it sees that Republican Governor Frank Murkowski can do no right. In 2002 Murkowski successfully made the jump from the Senate to the Governor's mansion by picking up a very respectable 56 percent of the vote. But things turned sour soon thereafter as Murkowski appointed his daughter to succeed him in Washington amid cries of nepotism, and almost ever since Murkowski's approval ratings have been just awful. In fact, Murkowski's approval number has topped 30 percent in just three of the past 13 SurveyUSA polls dating back to May of 2005 while his disapproval rating now stands at an all-time high of 73 percent (including a whopping 61 percent of Republicans).

Amid these truly awful numbers Murkowski today announced that he would be seeking a second term. But his path to reelection will not be easy. Already, two other Republicans have lined up to run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination -- former state Sen. John Binkley and former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin -- and two Democrats are currently running as well (state Reps. Eric Croft and Ethan Berkowitz). Perhaps more worrisome for Murkowski is the much discussed possibility that the very popular former two-term Democratic Governor Tony Knowles will enter the governor's race.

In an even year, Knowles, who barely lost to Murkowski's daughter during a Senate contest in 2004, might be considered a narrow favorite. But this is not an even year, particularly in Alaska. Indeed, the anti-Republican and anti-Murkowski sentiment in the state is palpable. Even President Bush's approval rating in the state is well below 50 percent while a majority voices disapproval.

Don't get me wrong. Either Croft or Berkowitz would have a shot at victory this year whether or not Murkowski makes it out of the GOP primary (and it's not obvious that he will). But Knowles is clearly the Democrats' strongest candidate in the race and would certainly be considered the prohibitive favorite should he decide he wanted a third term in office. So given the announcement today by Governor Murkowski, I must diverge from the Cook Political Report (.pdf) and CQ and rate this race leans Democrat.

There's more...

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