by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 05:09:42 AM EST
There are two things making us sweat: Pennsylvania & Mason-Dixon polling. The PA polling can be attributed to tightening, Morning Call's poll is a good example of this at work:
Morning Call 10/28 - 11/01 615 LV 4.0 52 45 Obama +7 10/19 - 10/23 608 LV 4.0 52 40 Obama +12 10/16 - 10/20 600 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12 10/10 - 10/14 584 LV 4.0 52 38 Obama +14 09/26 - 09/30 598 LV 4.0 48 41 Obama +7 09/21 - 09/25 577 LV 4.5 47 43 Obama +4
Obama's current average at RCP is 51.2, and at Pollster.com, using the 'high sensitive' model, it's 50.9:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the undecideds continue to break to McCain, and for the final margin to be close to what Mason-Dixon last polled, at 4 percent.
Mason-Dixon might be polling off of a very wrong model, but we do know that they were the best pollster in 2004, being off by an average of 1.8% cumulatively, and missing only one state 13 out of 14 (iirc). Here's their polling as of late:
I'll have another post on this later, but I think it comes down to 5 states that are going to be the closest and decide the election: OH, PA, VA, NC, & FL. McCain would need to win all five, while Obama is at 257 EV's and just needs to win in one of those 5 states. MD currently shows Obama taking PA & VA, while McCain takes OH & NC. FL goes both ways. Even giving it to McCain, still a 291-247 two-state win by Obama. Good enough for me.