PA & MD polling

There are two things making us sweat: Pennsylvania & Mason-Dixon polling.  The PA polling can be attributed to tightening, Morning Call's poll is a good example of this at work:

Morning Call	

10/28 - 11/01	615 LV	4.0	52	45	Obama +7
10/19 - 10/23	608 LV	4.0	52	40	Obama +12
10/16 - 10/20	600 LV	4.0	53	41	Obama +12
10/10 - 10/14	584 LV	4.0	52	38	Obama +14
09/26 - 09/30	598 LV	4.0	48	41	Obama +7
09/21 - 09/25	577 LV	4.5	47	43	Obama +4

Obama's current average at RCP is 51.2, and at Pollster.com, using the 'high sensitive' model, it's 50.9:

I wouldn't be surprised to see the undecideds continue to break to McCain, and for the final margin to be close to what Mason-Dixon last polled, at 4 percent.

Mason-Dixon might be polling off of a very wrong model, but we do know that they were the best pollster in 2004, being off by an average of 1.8% cumulatively, and missing only one state 13 out of 14 (iirc). Here's their polling as of late:

I'll have another post on this later, but I think it comes down to 5 states that are going to be the closest and decide the election: OH, PA, VA, NC, & FL. McCain would need to win all five, while Obama is at 257 EV's and just needs to win in one of those 5 states. MD currently shows Obama taking PA & VA, while McCain takes OH & NC. FL goes both ways. Even giving it to McCain, still a 291-247 two-state win by Obama. Good enough for me.

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Who surges where

Barring some sort of irreconcilable polling fiasco, Obama is going to win the popular vote. Regardless, all that matters is the electoral vote. Pollster.com has a way to make the trend 'more sensitive' which allows us to see which states are having surges toward either candidate. Here's what I found:

The West looks over. Obama is getting stronger in each of the states of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Even in Arizona (which he won't win). There are other states where Obama is surging, but hasn't quite taken the lead: the Dakota's & Montana are a few, but Georgia being the strongest.

In Iowa, Obama is trending down a bit, but is still ahead substantially. This is a state where it could get tighter, like a 5% margin, but according to the late polls, Obama has it locked in with 2 days to go. Nevertheless, and probably because of the whiteness of the state, McCain continues to invest in the state, and Palin is apparently heading there as a 'last stop' in the campaign.

Missouri & Indiana. Both of these states have flipped back to McCain in the past week. Not by a lot, but the 'surge' is with McCain in these two states.

New Hampshire, in the last month, has surged into a seemingly 'out of range' margin for Obama. The same with Minnesota and also, but less so, in Wisconsin.

If we assume all of those states (and all the others not covered but taken as they stand), break accordingly, here's where it stands:

Obama 257
McCain 185

Remaining states: OH (20), PA (21), VA (13), NC (15), FL (27).

That's right, Obama just needs one of these states, while McCain would need to win all five to pull off the win. Here's what they look like with the sensitive chart to look at late trends:

Ohio-- something happened in this state in the past two weeks, since about the 20th of October. Perhaps it was the debates. Regardless, Obama has led in all recent polling. This is a state where I'll be interested in what Mason-Dixon puts out tomorrow. McCain does have a small uptick happening, but the current margin is 49-44.

Florida-- the current margin is 49-46. Again, you have to go back to around the 20th of Oct to find a poll (not R or internet) where McCain is leading. It's still very tight; even more so than Ohio. The reports from early voting have shown AA turnout very high, but not so much for the youth turnout.

Virginia-- just about the same thing, with Obama leading by a 49-44 margin. The sensitive trend has Obama dropping a bit, and McCain coming up a bit. VA is a tough state to call based on the polls. In '06

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Please Leave Obama out of 8

Folks should leave Barack out of this "Proposition 8" fight.

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Racists Anti-Obama Email Circulated by Rhode Island Republican Candidate

RIFuture has acquired an email that is circulating in certain political circles both here and in New Jersey that is likely to put a local Republican candidate on the defensive.  Dave Anderson, Republican Candidate for the General Assembly in District 4, Providence, running against Majority Leader Gordon Fox, said this to friends in the GOP:

I have never been so worried about a candidate's experience, honesty, and intentions as I am about Mr. Obama. I think he might win, not based on his platform and record, but on the generosity of voters who think it is time to give a "minority guy a break." It's an affirmative action impulse taken too far.

 Please pass this along to others as you see fit.

I spoke with Mr. Anderson a short time ago who confirmed that he had indeed sent the email.  According to him, he stands by the assertion that Obama’s appeal is based on the generosity of voters to “give a ‘minority guy a break.’” 

Really, can the  State GOP find ANY credible candidates?

The full text of the email is after the flip.  As he says, “Please pass this along to others as you see fit.”

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Gallup Just Exploded

Wow, wonder if Drudge the Fedora will be front paging this one with 42pt fonts and flashing lights.

As of today, all 3 models show decisive leads for Obama.

Of course as we all know, State polls are what really matters right now, but the National trackers are great for surveying trends, and the trends look very good heading into the final weekend.

Here's Gallup's numbers for 10-31-08

The Registered Voter model shows it as: Obama 52%, McSame 41%. That's a gain of 2 points for Obama and a loss of one for McWalking Cane.

The "Traditional" (based on 2004 turnout) Voter model shows it as: Obama 51%, McShame 43%. gain of one point for Barry, loss of two points for Gramps.

The "Expanded" (based on estimations of higher turnout this year) Voter model shows it as: Obama 52%, McFailin 43%. Gain of one point of That One, loss of one point McKitchenSink.

UPDATE: Here's a snippet from the Write-up:
Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

Obama's lead among expanded likely voters is only slightly greater than that seen among traditional likely voters. He now leads McCain by nine-points, 52% to 43%, using this looser definition that does not factor in whether respondents have voted in past elections, but strictly relies on their reported level of interest and intention to vote in the 2008 election.

Again, it cannot be stressed enough that we must continue fighting for this election! But it's good to see the tightening we saw earlier in the week reverse itself, either way.

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