Kentucky, Vermont

Looking to pick up a Senate race against Lunsford, the exit polling shows it close, McConnell up by only 2%. The only race in the House is the Louisville seat, the 3rd CD where Yarmuth is the Dem. Here's the results at the Presidential. Obama takes Vermont.

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Poll Closing Times

Swing State Project has a cool graphic depicting the poll closing times for each state as well as a handy chart that shows what time the voting ends in key races being decided today. Many states exist in multiple time zones and so have different poll closing times. Below you'll find simply a list of the times -- all Eastern -- when each state will begin to actually report presidential results, i.e. when ALL voting in each state is technically set to conclude (obviously does not factor in extended times to accommodate long lines/voting irregularities, etc.):

7PM:

Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia

7:30PM:

North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia

8PM:

Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
Hew Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Washington, DC

8:30PM

Arkansas

9PM:

Arizona
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming

10PM:

Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah

11PM:

California
Hawaii
Idaho
Oregon
Washington

1AM:

Alaska

Update [2008-11-4 13:54:2 by Todd Beeton]:Just wanted to reiterate that this list contains the times when the last poll in each state will close and hence, when we can expect to begin to see results. Many states are in two timezones, so check your specific area for when your actual local polls close. The Swing State Project map is a good resource for this.

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Election Protection Calls for Voting to be Extended in Virginia

For those wondering how our electoral system is running today, the folks at 866-OUR-VOTE/The Election Protection Coalition have a blog with running updates from around the country. One state in which the coalition has received a number of calls requesting assistance has been Virginia, where the group is now calling on election officials to extend voting by two hours.

Breaking news: at 10:30, Election Protection - the nation's largest nonpartisan voter protection coalition - will call for the voting hours in Virginia to be extended by 2 hours.

Virginia is emerging as a major hot spot, with tens of thousands of voters at risk. Check out some of the reports here. If you are voting in Virginia, please do not get discouraged and leave the polls.

We've received hundreds of calls to the Election Protection Hotline - 1-866-OUR-VOTE - from Virginia voters reporting a variety of problems:

  • Massive machine failures across the state
  • Over 2 dozen precincts opening late
  • Voters turned away from the polls
  • Reports of voter intimidation

Update [2008-11-4 11:44:55 by Jonathan Singer]:HuffPo has more on the developments on the ground in Virginia.

If you are having trouble voting, do not hesitate to contact the election protection folks, and if you still need to find where your polling location is located, BarackObama.com has a useful widget to help you out. And if you have the time today -- even just an hour -- to help out and volunteer, do it. It's not too late. Punch in your zip code below or click through this link to find out where you can help out the effort the most.

Update [2008-11-4 12:26:32 by Texas Nate]: Virginia Democratic House Caucus Chair, Delegate Brian Moran is in Hampton Roads, VA today working to protect the vote. Here's his election day commentary:

Here's some local news coverage of Moran's efforts from the Petersburg Progress-Index:

Moran has been campaigning for Obama for months. Last week, he launched a bipartisan effort in the General Assembly and urged both Democrats and Republicans to contact their constituents and make sure that all Virginia voters had the necessary information for Election Day.

Today, Moran — a lawyer and former prosecutor — will join Hampton Roads lawyers to visit various polling places to offer legal assistance to voters. In recent weeks, many households in Hampton received fliers falsely urging Democrats to vote on Wednesday instead of Tuesday.

“With the tactics of fear, intimidation and misinformation employed by those who want to stop Virginians from going to the polls on Election Day, I can’t think of a more important role to play than providing voter protection tomorrow,” Moran said yesterday. “I will spend the day making sure that every vote is counted.”

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Tarrance projects a toss-up

Oh boy. As you know, Battleground (pdf) is a polling firm done by a Democratic firm and a Republican firm. In 2004, the final of the Republican firm, Tarrance, nailed the actual vote-- off by one decimal point.

They've come out today with their final projection of 50.2 for Obama and 48.3 for McCain, .9 for Barr and .6 for Nader.

Sure, this looks good enough, but when you factor in that 20M of the total of 130M votes comes from CA & NY, where Obama racks up nearly a 2:1 majority going by the polls, it means that McCain would lead in the other 48 states, where the battlegrounds are happening.

So now we have a real polling gap, with margins going from 11% (Zogby/Gallup) to 2% (Tarrance), and the rest in-between. Going off of DemFromCT's compilation of 13 different polls, the average difference is 7.35% in favor of Obama.

I hope they get the extension in Virginia, it was denied yesterday by a judge. I doubt they get it, as even during the primary there were big problems, and we got no extension. You just have to be in line by 7. My polling location was changed (signs pointed it out clearly), though I did drive by and see the lines, I'm going to take my 3 year old daughter with me later tonight to vote.

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blowout opening

All praise Obama. Seriously. I know I've given him flack in the primary but that's long gone in my mind, and his GE campaign has been pretty flawless. If he governs like he runs a campaign we will all be happy. That said, this election is bigger than Obama. The challenge for Obama was to make the country comfortable with a black man with limited national exposure. His campaign crossed that hurdle. His embracing the 50 state effort and people financing of his campaign were what made it possible to win against the Republican machine, and Obama's personal ability to come across as a 21st century American made it happen. The winning message was change vs more of the same.

McCain: More of the Same, A Third Bush Term, Change-- from all of that to something different. It's the rejection of Bush Republicans and all they have not done to make the world a better place. Beating Bush is why I got involved in politics in the first place. It took a few years longer than I had hoped, but it is now going to happen. All I can hope for is that the Democrats fulfill on their promise to be different, because if they don't... I don't even want to think about it.

OK, onward. Here are the predictions.

Presidential: 52.2 to 45.8-- a 6.4 percent margin. The last days national trend in every poll thus far (there are a few outstanding) is toward Obama. TIPP had undecideds breaking 2:1 in Obama's favor. Battleground started moving to Obama, Zogby too...  I'll predict we have a blowout: Unheard of in my lifetime for a Democrat. Well, actually, I was born in Feb '64, but I don't recall Johnson's blowout. 44 long years, and we finally have a Democratic blowout of the Republicans at the national level.

At the EV level, MyDD's counter has 338-200, which sounds good. I am a little bit nervous that IN, MO, and NC have all flipped back to McCain during the last week. McCain also has increased numbers in FL and OH, both of which I could see him winning. In VA, Obama has fallen below 50 percent on RCP, which could mean trouble. Both NV and CO have had recent polls showing it close. In short, all of the toss-up states seem to have tightened in McCain's favor the last week. This, even though the late-breaking undecideds, as picked up by the national tracking polls, are breaking to Obama. There's usually a lag from national to state, but McCain & the RNC have put all eggs into the toss-up states. My worst case scenario is that VA & PA are "too close to call" by the networks and we are up late waiting for the NV results to come in... the best is that Obama hits 400 by winning all the toss-ups, plus upsets in GA and AZ.

The MyDD EV map is now wiped clean for election day, and along with some really cool Google gadgets, I plan on calling each state and blogging the whole night.

Senate: A pickup of 9 seats. 60, yes! The trend has been for Senate toss-ups to all go one way or another, and not splitting. Since that's the case, I'll go with it. I've had the pleasure of working with 7 Senate races this cycle, and we are going to win all them:) Realistically, 58-59 would be terrific.

House: A pickup of 26 seats. Its probably the case that many of the seats we hope to win are in too red of gerrymandered CD's to actually win in a GE. Plus, we are going to lose seats-- this is a 'throw them out' election. We start with 235, and though I think we will takeaway 30 again, we will likely lose about 4.

After the election, I'm headed to Bahia Honda in the FL Keys for a week. Ah. Then it's on to 2009, and on with making sure that Brian Moran wins the governorship of Virginia. And for 2010, MyDD will be getting involved in a number of efforts to hold Democrats accountable.

Policy-wise, what I am most looking forward in the federal Democratic agenda is a gigantic move toward removing the American addiction to foreign fossil fuels. That has to happen. Even bigger though, I'm looking foward to the USA being a part of the world again; instead of going solo we go global. If the above predictions all play out today, can you imagine how transformational our policies could become that Jan-March of 2009?

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Diaries

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