This diary is intended for only those people who consistently make a fuss about the younger generation of voters who support Obama. These people have labeled these  voters as "naive", "green", "inexperienced", "adolescents",  "immature", "amateurs",  "juvenile", "don't know any better", ""ignorant on the issues", "drinking the kool-aid",etc.

I give to you a recent pew research finding....

One pattern that differs from previous surveys of political knowledge is that younger voters are significantly more knowledgeable about the candidates' positions than are older voters. For example, 60% of voters 18-29 correctly say that Obama is pro-choice, compared with just 51% of those ages 50-64 and just 41% of those ages 65 and older.

Your Honor, I rest my case...

http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1 336

Click the link for the table...

On this day, May 20th, in which Obama will win a majority of pledged elected delegates, I would like to offer a dozen reasons, a baker's dozen, for why Barack Obama will be the next president. I know that this is a difficult time for Clinton supporters, but we have a candidate who can win in November.  Let's do it!  (I will post this on The Daily Kos also.)  

1. The Change Factor: Yes, you have heard it before, but it is for real. People are hungry for it, especially after the worst presidency in living memory. A key point here is that Obama has been on message about change from DAY ONE. He is the Change candidate.

2. The Organization Factor: Obama has built a remarkable organization. Nothing quite like it has been seen before in its capacity to raise money, generate enthusiasm, and get out the vote. For more on the uniqueness of Obama's organization, see Joshua Green's piece, "The Amazing Money Machine" http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200806/ob ama-finance and Marc Ambinder's "His Space" in The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200806/am binder-obama

3.The Charisma Factor: Hard to explain. Hard to quantify. But you know it when you see it. (Obama's recent Portland crowd, 75,000 in a primary election, was no accident.)

4. The Republican Factor: They are in disarray and have money problems. This will have an impact on the Presidential race. How much? Good question. But no doubt it will have some.

5. The Money Factor: A corollary to the Organization Factor. Obama will have lots of it and will be able to raise more and more of it. To those who say that money can't buy love or office, agreed, at least in terms of the former. But money can certainly help win office. It is especially helpful if you have a good candidate, a good brand as they say, to sell. Obama is such a brand.

6. The Even Keel Factor: In this case, the young man, Obama, seems to have a more even temperament than the older candidate. This undermines a potential advantage for McCain and also defies expectations, namely, that age should bring a more even temper. (McCain's anger problem is for real.) Americans believe that we need a steady hand on the rudder in these difficult times.

7. The Intellectual and Expert Factor: There are those who have claimed that Obama is an elitist, a pointy head, etc., and that too many in his campaign fit this bill. But the bottom line is that candidates who can comfortably make use of experts and genuine intellectuals-not faux intellectuals, for example, the neo-conservative ideologues-are in stronger position than those who cannot. Knowledge may not be power, but it sure can help keep power from making foolish mistakes, like Iraq. It can also help win elections. (It was the "nerds," after all, who really understood how the delegate process worked in the Democratic race. And guess who had them on staff and who listened to them.)

8. The African-American Vote. Obama will draw the greatest number of African-American voters in American history. It will make a difference. As Poblano's analysis shows, just a 10% to 20% increase can make a significant difference in who wins in the fall. (Poblano suggests 13 electoral votes for each 10%.) See Josh Kalven's "Obama Over the Top: How New Voters Could Redraw the Electoral Map" http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/f eatures/obama-over-the-top

9. The Youth Vote and Support: Typically the youth vote is viewed as an unreliable voting block. But Obama has shown that he can increase the youth vote. In addition, youth represents `boots on the ground.' They do much of the door to door and office work that campaigns require. On how the youth vote could assist Obama, once again, see Josh Kalven's "Obama Over the Top: How New Voters Could Redraw the Electoral Map" http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/f eatures/obama-over-the-top

10. A Motivated Democratic Party: Yes, there is the issue of whether most of Hillary's supporters will come around. And there are unknowns in terms of whether Obama will be able to bring more working class folks into his corner. But the Democrats are hungry and they have resources. There will be some synergy between Presidential, Congressional, and local races.

11. The Oratory Factor. We know what the man can do. He is pretty much in a class by himself. Speeches matter. Words delivered well matter. McCain, on the other hand, is not a strong public speaker. (The "My friends" thing just isn't going to cut it.) In addition, Obama will best him in the debates.

12. The Bush factor: Obama is the anti-Bush. He listens to those outside an inner circle. He is anti-Iraq war, exceptionally intelligent, reasonably hip, etc. McCain, on the other hand, appears to be running for Bush's third term. The McBush notion will stick with a significant number of voters.

13. Michelle Obama: Michelle has made some gaffes. Some view her as coming on too strong. But her story will get out: poor kid from the South Side of Chicago, who through her own hard work and intelligence made it to Princeton and Harvard. She is now the mother of two young daughters, juggling family and career. Women, many of Hillary's supporters, will relate. Further, Michelle is a powerful speaker. The Republicans would be foolish to underestimate her.

For a baker's dozen of reasons for why McCain will NOT win, I shamelessly offer you a link to my blog  http://msa4.wordpress.com/

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/us/pol itics/22age.html?hp

So this is an article that's about a week old, and I included it more as an example than anything else, as if anyone isn't aware of the age-related demographic split between the candidates.  It got me wondering though:

What effect would the super delegates giving Clinton the victory have on the future of the democratic party, given how heavily young voters trend toward Obama?  Do you think they'll stay politicized and continue their support of the democratic party?  Will they forget/forgive?  Perhaps when they get older will they see things the same way old folks do now, or would the future old people still disagree with today's old people?  Damn, I think I wandered into time travel there...seems to happen a lot.

I'm genuinely curious how people see this election in the long run from a "10,000 miles up" view affecting the demographics of the democratic party in years to come.  We can argue all day about Bosnia and Wright and all the other bullshit that pervades this site, but maybe someone is interested in taking a break and  talking about this from a more analytical standpoint regarding the future of the democratic party.

Hello?

CIRCLE has crunched what numbers they could and here are the results from yesterday's primary:

There are a boatload of caveats that come with these stats.  First, looking at the turnout number (14%), it needs to be noted that this is a low-ball number.  CIRCLE doesn't just calculate the turnout within the Democratic Primary, they calculate it for the entire electorate.  Last night there were no exit polls for the Republican primary, making it impossible for CIRCLE to crunch the data on that side of the aisle.  So the 14% comes purely from Democratic turnout, but it's representative of the entire electorate.  If CIRCLE were able to add in data from the Republican turnout, that number would surely rise.

Second, because there were no exit polls at all done in Pennsylvania in 2000 or 2004, we have no data against which to compare these numbers.  We can, however, make a few very good guestimates.

What we do know is that turnout doubled in Pennsylvania last night, and that in 2004, the average youth "share of the electorate" was 9%.  So in a year in which turnout doubled overall, young people gained a 3% greater share of all voters than they did in 2004.  So youth turnout yesterday was likely more than double what it was in 2004.

As per usual, youth turnout also went heavily for Senator Obama.  According to CNN Exit polling, 18 - 24 year olds broke for Obama 66 - 34%.  Among 25 - 29 year olds the race narrowed, though Obama still carried the cohort 55 - 45%.

As I noted earlier in the week, Ohio and Pennsylvania are very demographically similar states.  If Obama was to win or be competitive tonight, he needed youth to turnout be a greater share of the electorate in PA than it was in OH.  That didn't happen.  In Ohio, the youth share of the electorate was 3 percentage points higher, at 15% (pdf).  There were likely a number of factors that kept youth turnout down.  

There have been some reports of problems at the polling place, but a greater problem was likely the fact that many students - who have made up a disproportionately high number of young voters this cycle - missed the registration deadline, which bumped up against spring break, or they voted absentee in their home state during the previous contests.  There is also the matter of brain-drain.  Pennsylvania is one of the oldest states in the country, in no small part due to the fact that young college graduates leave the state to find work elsewhere.  In other states, college-educated young voters have played a large role in boosting youth turnout.

While it's great news for Democrats, the Obama campaign, and youth activists that, in spite of those hurdles mentioned above, young voters turned out yesterday in greater numbers than every before, there was still room for growth.   Young voters in PA made up 21% of the eligible electorate, so young people still did not vote in proportion to their share of the population.  There was a 9% gap between what happened, and what was possible.  Look at previous contests and you will see that this gap has occurred time and again this primary season.  We've seen big gains - double, triple, even quadruple turnout - in every single state, but with the notable exceptions of Iowa and New Hampshire, these numbers have lagged behind young voters' share of the population.

Why is that so?

In Iowa and New Hampshire, which saw the largest share of the electorate and the largest turnout rate, respectively, among young people, youth organizers were moving full-steam ahead.  Every 501c3, c4, and 527 was on the ground working to turn out young people.  This has not been the case in the rest of the  primary contests and caucuses.  Progressive youth orgs just don't have the budget to run full youth campaigns during the primary season and no one thought this contest would go past February 5th.  We were all caught unprepared for this and the youth vote in the remaining states is not turning out  as much as it could be as a consequence.  

There's a strong argument to be made here that the Obama campaign, for all the incredible work that it has done in energizing young people, needs help.  It can't turn out the youth vote to the greatest degree possible on its own.  It will need the support of outside youth organizations like YDA, The League, Young Voter PAC and more.  If Obama donors who are maxed-out want to continue to help his candidacy, they could do a lot worse than directing some funds to these independent youth organizations that will be on the ground this cycle, and well after the polls close in November.

As I've said in my book and many times in the past, Millennials are a larger generation than the Baby Boom, and research shows that if you can get someone to vote for a party in their first three major elections, you can lock in their partisanship for life.  Getting these young voters out now is about more than the Obama campaign.  It's about building partisan loyalty and securing a progressive majority for the next 40 - 50 years.  That's a worthwhile longterm investment.

Last night I went to see Hillary in Scranton, Pa. It was packed to the rafters. The line was about 1/2 mile long! That wasn't the most amazing thing.

The thing that surprised me was the amount of young people that were there. We were surrounded by college kids in line. It took over 2 hours of standing in the cold before we got in, so there was a lot of time to chat.

Things have been quiet for me here lately, but there's been a reason for it.  I'm excited to announce that after more than a year's work, my book, Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority, is finally published, and I've been getting ready for a book tour.

A huge thank you to my publishers, Ig Publishing (a wonderful independent outfit that also published fellow blogger Jeffrey Feldman's books), and all the youth vote activists and researchers  who agreed to be interviewed and helped me along the way.  After the jump I'll let you know why I wrote this book, why I think it's important, and what it's all about.

I would otherwise write up a pithy, perhaps clever review of the video here but I have to step out to brush my teeth due to throwing up in my mouth a little bit while watching it.

Go here to see the YouTube video

Update: Here's the totally radical experience right here on MyDD. She is way jiggy with it.