I will never forget election night, November 2000.   I was living overseas, hosting a party for a rowdy Democrats Abroad group.  I'll never forget the ecstasy of Al Gore being declared winner of Florida after a nail-biting night of state-by-state returns.  We cheered and jumped around like kids, dialed up relatives in the US, popped the cork...

Well...you know the rest of the story:  chads, lawsuits, Supreme Court briefs, outrage, heartbreak, regret. Mostly, though, the injustice of it all.

The injustice was wrenching.  Our candidate lost the White House over a handful of votes in the swing state of Florida even though he won more votes nationwide.  There you have it.  Reality sunk in and George Bush moved into Al's house on Pennsylvania Avenue.

That 8-year-old memory has been haunting me lately.   Because the Democratic party is poised to re-enact this farce in a case of tragic irony.  If Barack Obama becomes the nominee, it will be because party officials decide to override the popular vote -- the will of the people --  in favor of a slim lead in pledged delegates.

After the last primary on June 3rd, it's likely that Obama will lead Clinton in pledged delegates by approximately 100 out of  some 3200 total. But Clinton will be the popular vote leader, including caucus states and Florida, even excluding Michigan (where Obama removed his name from the ballot and blocked a re-vote). Following Clinton's net gain of 150,000 votes from Tuesday's contests in Oregon and Kentucky -- Clinton now leads Obama in the popular vote by over 55,000, including caucuses, Florida, and Michigan.

The  Philadelphia Inquirer analyzes the situation:

It is this looming prospect which explains the tremendous pressure Obama partisans and the media are putting on Clinton to drop out of the race. They want her gone now because they understand that she has an excellent chance of finishing as the undisputed people's choice.

Would it matter if Clinton were the undisputed (or even disputed) popular-vote winner? That's hard to say. The question is, matter to whom? The superdelegates will determine the nominee and there's no telling what will sway them. They have no objective criteria from which to make their decisions. But if they were to deny the popular-vote champ the nomination, there is a real question of whether Democratic voters would reconcile themselves to the decision. As it is, much of the talk about Democratic defections in November has been overstated.

Partisan voters almost always come home after their candidate loses. The problem arises when a candidate's supporters believe that their guy (or gal) didn't lose. Expect the chorus calling for Clinton's withdrawal to grow louder over the next week, with people insisting that she has no "path to victory."

Clinton's path is both obvious and simple: Win the popular vote and force Barack Obama and his cheerleaders to explain why that doesn't matter.

(emphasis added)

I agree with this analysis, with one strong exception.  "Talk about Democratic defections" has not been "overstated."  Party members are in denial about the rapidly expanding coalition of McCain Democrats.  Warning: ignore this phenomenon at the party's peril.

Clinton will emerge from the primary season with a compelling case for the nomination based on a healthy popular vote lead.  For Democrats un-afflicted by amnesia, the winner should be the person who gets the most votes.  And thankfully, unlike November 2000, there are superdelegates who can ensure that this time, the people are not cheated.

And one other thing, which is even more important: not only will Hillary Clinton be the peoples' choice, she will also be the strongest candidate against John McCain in the General Election, as noted by a mounting body of analysis based on surveys showing Clinton trouncing McCain in the Electoral Vote count while Obama trails him. What's most impressive about these trends is that Clinton now out-performs both John McCain and Barack Obama in state-by-state GE polls even though the mainstream media is all but ignoring her and acting as if Obama is already the nominee, and even though Obama is acting that way himself!  Imagine -- just imagine -- how Clinton could expand her lead over McCain if that head-to-head contest were the media's sole focus?  Even though Obama gets all the media bias and attention as his party's "presumptive nominee," he's still behind.  Anyone who doubts Clinton's commanding GE advantage is spell-bound by alternative criteria.

So buckle up superdelegates.  It's time to take this task seriously and do the right thing, not just on behalf of the people, but on behalf of our party.  We can take back the White House if you listen to the voters.  They know exactly what they're doing when they give Hillary Clinton decisive victories in GE battleground zones. If the popular vote winner had won in 2000, what a better world we'd have today.

Note:  popular vote and delegate statistics from Real Clear Politics.

Cross posted at TexasDarlin

TexasDarlin, all rights reserved
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign

The people are speaking.  Is our party listening?

Early in the primaries, Barack Obama promised that he would win more people over the longer he campaigned.  He said that every state becomes an "Obama state" once he goes there.  But an interesting thing happened as winter turned to spring, and the people kept voting in record numbers.  Hillary Clinton stole the momentum.   Her popularity soared; her appeal broadened; and she steadfastly became the darling of the masses, even as Barack was crowned darling of the mass media.

It started back in New Hampshire, when Hillary "found her voice," but what really happened is that the American people have found Hillary. And there's nothing like raw data to illustrate the point:  

*The Electoral Vote "Poll Watcher" shows Hillary gaining steam against McCain, now leading 310 to 228, with Hillary winning key states like Florida, North Carolina, and West Virginia.  (Obama trails McCain by over 30 EV's.)

*Over the last three months, Hillary has won more contests, gained more votes, and earned more delegates. Since March 4th, she has gained nearly 500,000 more popular votes than Barack Obama as voters in crucial battleground states have made their voices known.

*More Americans have voted for Hillary than any other presidential candidate this cycle. In fact, more people have voted for Hillary than any other primary candidate in history - nearly 18 million so far.

*Just yesterday, Hillary won 150,000 more votes than Obama in Kentucky and Oregon, even though delegate counts will be split fairly evenly.

*Hillary has now won nearly 64,000 more votes than Obama in total, when all caucuses and primaries are included.

Hillary Clinton just keeps winning.  She is the candidate who closes the deal with voters. Despite being out-spent by margins of up to 4-to-1; despite anxious efforts by Obama, his surrogates, and an obedient press corps to convince people that the race is over.  They keep voting for her anyway.  Thankfully there's a stubborn gene in the American people, a natural resistance to authority, and maybe that's why the people love Hillary.  They see her get up with the roosters every day, work herself to exhaustion in pursuit of a dream, and never give up or give in to the nay-sayers.  Hillary, in spite of all the odds, has become a genuine Made in the USA hero, a leader for the people and no longer just "Bill's wife," the other Clinton.

My candidate for President, Hillary Clinton, said in her Kentucky victory speech last night:

It is not just Kentucky bluegrass that is music to my ears. It is the sound of your overwhelming vote of confidence even in the face of some pretty tough odds. Some have said your votes didn't matter, that this campaign was over, that allowing everyone to vote and every vote to count would somehow be a mistake. But that didn't stop you. You've never given up on me because you know I'll never give up on you.

Funny thing...that pesky notion of one-person-one-vote-rules in a democracy, such an irritant to the power-brokers who want Hillary Clinton to pad dutifully back to her seat in the Senate, and forget about the 18 million people who want her to be President, including 2.3 million in Florida and Michigan who knew exactly what they were doing.

Power to the people, that's the lesson from November, 2000.  It's not too late to take it to heart.  Hillary Clinton can close this deal for the Democrats in November.


Note: popular vote statistics from Real Clear Politics




Cross posted at texasdarlin

TexasDarlin, all rights reserved
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign

It's projected that Hillary Clinton will have more popular votes than Barack Obama on June 3rd.  Some news organizations have already declared her the popular vote leader.  

Yet many party officials seem anxious to coronate Barack Obama prior to the Democratic convention.  They must have short memories, and have forgotten the sense of outrage and injustice we (the Democrats) experienced when Al Gore was robbed of his election mandate 8 years ago.

"Hillary Democrats" will feel aggrieved if the Superdelegates over-turn their votes.  It's naive to assume that they'll jump on the Unity Express to join forces against Republican enemies in November.  Millions of Democrats (and some others too) -- the majority of whom belong to that key demographic called women -- are already steaming mad at how Clinton is being treated by her colleagues, aided by a misogynist mass media.

As a reminder, Hillary Clinton has dedicated decades of her life to fighting for progressive causes and Democratic candidates.  She is a 2-term Senator from the 3rd largest state in the union, and a major voice on the Senate Armed Services Committee.  At the end of this primary process, she will have inspired nearly 20 million people to get out and vote for her.  Millions of them are just like me -- actively campaigning and donating for the first time in our lives.

Now, this takes nothing away from Senator Obama, as he has also inspired millions of people.  But he's getting the respect due from Democratic peers while Hillary Clinton -- champion of children and sick people and veterans and women -- is being treated like a nuisance. Some have even attacked her character and dignity, such as Obama surrogate Ted Kennedy who recently said that Clinton is not "in tune with...the nobler aspirations of the American people."

In the absence of a rational explanation for this abuse, millions of women (and men too) are fuming because, frankly, it reeks of good ole fashioned back-slapping sexism.  I'm not alone in wondering out loud whether a man in Clinton's position -- that is, a serious contender for the presidential nomination who has won swing states (most recently by 41%) and built a formidable coalition needed to win the White House -- would be taunted, ridiculed, and treated like an outcast.

As a woman who has been on the receiving end of double standards, and one who happens to believe that Hillary Clinton will be the best President of my lifetime, I want to urge Senator Clinton to take her campaign all the way to the convention floor.  By earning more than half the votes cast, she has every right to make her case directly to party representatives in the proper venue, and even a responsibility to the voters.

See, this is the way it is for Clinton supporters.  If you throw Hillary under the bus, we go with her.  And although our leader would be gracious in asking us to disregard the injustice, millions of "Hillary Democrats" will be unable to do so.  "Backlash" is a real social and psychological phenomenon.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

Note:  please don't shoot the messenger.