This isn't a confession.  I'm not ashamed of my choice and I'm not going to apologize for it.  But things have changed, and they've changed in ways that I don't know that I can fully articulate, though I think most of us know.  If I'd lived in a swing state, I probably would have voted for Gore, but in Vermont I had the luxury of making a protest vote.   The electoral college map wasn't going to change. Vermont was going to go for Gore no matter what I did.  If I'd lived in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico or New Hampshire, I would have voted for Gore.  I didn't have to make that choice.

After the fold, I'll talk a bit about the decision processes that go into this and why they're relevant to 2008.  For those of you in Vermont, the first few paragraphs will be familiar to you.  For those of you who don't, you'll learn some very strange things about the way we choose a governor.

For months now Democrats have merely been in the speculative phase in terms of having a candidate for governor.  First "Young Dunne," former state legislator Matte Dunne who nearly took down Brian Dubie two years floated his name, but reneged.  Peter Gailbraith, a former ambassador had been floating his name, but he was a second tier candidate at best, without any legislative or executive experience to speak of.  Meanwhile, "Tony the Prog," Anthony Pollina, a perennial candidate for the progressive party announced that he was running, and hoped for a two man race. This was a rather sad state of affairs, considering how strongly democratic Vermont is, and the opportunity that a surge of democratic voters in the presidential election could bring us.  Then House Speaker Gaye Symington announced that she was going to run, challenging incumbent governor Jim Douglas.  

With four years experience as speaker of the house, and a progressive record on health care, the economy, and childcare issues, she is clearly a top tier candidate.  Speaker Symington has been a legislator for twelve years, first elected to the house in 1996.  During her freshman term as a legislator, she worked to pass Act-60, the plan that funds Vermont's education system.  After democrats lost the legislature following backlash from both the aforementioned Act 60, and civil unions, Speaker Symington helped bring the democrats back into the majority in both the house and senate, and they now enjoy a 2/3 majority in both houses.  It is because of this, I am asking the netroots to look into Speaker Symington, and contribute.  Her website http://symingtonforgovernor.com/ is a bit primitive at the moment, but should be enhanced soon (at least it better be).

Despite her qualifications, she still faces steep odds, especially in a three way race.  Under the Vermont Constitution, if none of the candidates receive a majority of the votes, then the legislature chooses the governor.  Jim Douglas was elected in 2002 with 45% of the vote to Doug Racine's 42%.  The democratic legislature chose Douglas as he was the vote leader, despite having the votes to elect Racine.  This occurred as many legislators were asked by opponents and constituents to pledge to vote for the popular vote winner.  With Anthony Pollina in the race, this will most likely happen again.  Symington however, may be planning to just keep Douglas under 50% in an attempt to get the legislature to elect her, who knows?  

Currently there are not any polls on the race, but the race will most likely become a fight for moderates.  Douglas will keep his base on the right (the 5,000 people who voted for Huckabee in the republican primary) and right of center moderates, Symington will aim for left of center moderates and Pollina will consoldate the far left progressives.  Both Scudder Parker in 2006 and Peter Clavelle in 2004 (a former independent mayor of Burlington) aimed for the far left and left of center moderates and couldn't get better than 41%.

With an expected surge in democratic votes, Symington may be able to benefit in ways former gubernatorial candidates could not.  2006 nominee Scudder Parker (his real name) only managed 41% despite the overwhelmingly democratic year. Others however, were able to capitalize on the strong democratic leanings of the elections.  Brian Dubie, the republican LT. Governor barely received a majority of votes (51%).  Had he not received a majority, the legislature could have chosen democratic nominee Matt Dunne as LT Governor.  Tom Salmon son of a former governor of the same name, managed a narrow victory over incumbent Randy Brock to become the newest auditor of accounts.  These democrats were able to utilize the strong democrats tide of 2006, and Symington can and will utilize the democratic leanings of 2008, all she needs to get elected is your support?  Will you step up?

The credit card associations and the banks that support them have gotten away for too long without answering serious questions about their practices, and at long last, tomorrow there will be a hearing on Capitol Hill to consider the Credit Card Fair Fee Act - HR 5546. It hasn't had the same press as the Credit Card Bill of Rights but it is no less important, and I say that not just because I work with the merchant group that has done tons of work over the last couple years to bring the issue to this point.

One co-sponsor of the bill who speaking up on the issue is Vermont's Peter Welch, one of the best progressives we have in the House. Comments from Welch and more details via the Rutland Herald below:

Strange things afoot at the Circle K...

I read very closely about what's happening with the credit card industry, and I know when they're trying to put one past a reporter. Especially a small-town reporter that they probably don't expect to do all the research on a story that a member of the SCLM would. So imagine my (mock) suprise to find a MasterCard spokesperson trying to sneak one past a reporter for the Valley News of White River Junction, Vermont.

What do they know in Vermont anyway? Enough to make  MasterCard look not just deceptive, but inept at doing it. Details after the jump.

I wrote this for today's BeyondChron.

Hillary Clinton had reason to celebrate last night for winning the popular vote in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas - but only because Barack Obama did not deliver the final knock-out punch to end her campaign.  In the fight for the presidential nomination, Obama maintains a 150+ delegate lead - and Clinton did not put a dent in his edge last night that she needed to wage a successful comeback.  For all of the media obsession with the popular vote in Texas, it ignores two cold, hard facts: Obama won more delegates in Texas, and across all four primaries Clinton won a grand total of an estimated two more delegates. And after Saturday's Wyoming caucus and Tuesday's Mississippi primary, Clinton will be further behind than on March 3. Her campaign has just finished Act 2 of a Greek tragedy: after an arduous path full of setbacks and defeats, the heroine suddenly appears on the brink of recovery - only to suffer inevitable loss in Act 3.  Clinton's performance last night makes it even more mathematically difficult for her to win the nomination.  But she can damage Obama's prospects, and hurt the Democratic Party---  Will Party leaders allow this?

CNN and NBC News, among others, call Vermont for Barack Obama. More details to follow...

Update [2008-3-4 19:12:24 by Jonathan Singer]: The key number in Vermont seems to me 64 percent. If Obama can get about 64 percent in Vermont tonight, the delegate spread would be 10 to 5 rather than 9 to 6 -- a net gain of 2 delegates for Obama. I don't think Obama will be able to hit 70 percent, which would yield an 11 to 4 spread, but if he could hit that 64 percent mark it could potentially mean that Obama would net as many delegates from Vermont as Clinton will from Ohio.

Update [2008-3-4 19:29:55 by Todd Beeton]:For what it's worth, a friend who crunched the VT exit polls tells me that they are indicating a 62-37 margin for Obama.

Texas reminds me more and more of California.

Recall how Hillary had a lot of momentum while the EARLY VOTING was going on, then Barack started to gain traction, leading to first a closing of the polls, then a final Zogby poll showing that momentum and a LEAD.  

However, the benefits of the early voting (in the primary) in CA, led to a Clinton win of about 10 points.  Respondents in Zogby's poll may have WANTED to vote for Obama, but had already cast their vote for Clinton.

In Texas, there are TWO things at work.  One, is of course the same thing that benefitted Hill in CA.  Early voting.  Obama is going to CRUSH Hillary in the early voting, which was conducted before she started trending up a bit.  Secondly, Obama's ground game (especially for the caucas portion) is much stronger.  Don't believe me?  From Politico's Smith...

"Behind the scenes, meanwhile, the Clinton campaign was scrambling Monday to put a field operation in place for Texas's two-step electoral process, in which the primary election is followed by caucuses at each of about 8,000 precincts around the state. One aide said that while the campaign had rounded up thousands of volunteers to represent the campaign at those locations, they were still well over a thousand short.

The organizing scramble was matched by an internal struggle to tamp down flashes of public sparring between senior aides, with many damaging leaks focused on chief strategist Mark Penn. Penn did himself few favors internally Monday with an email to the Los Angeles Times in which he noted that he was responsible only for the campaign's message, not its organizing or its spending."

In the end, I think that Obama will wind up winning TX by about 5-7 points and win more delegates.  

In OH...I think HRC used every arrow in the quiver and will win by about 7-9 points.

In RI...I think HRC will win by about 5-7.

In VT...I think that Obama wins by 15-21.

Net GAIN of 10-20 delegates for Obama.

Now, if this is the case...remember that I have PROMISED to not post any diaries until the end of the week, for fear of making it look like I am rubbing it in.  I will hold to that guarantee, so this may well be my last diary for a while. Try not to miss me!