The special election in Mississippi's first district today will likely be our final opportunity before November to turn a red seat blue. Coming on the heels of our wins in IL-14 and LA-06 earlier this year, a win by Democrat Travis Childers in MS-01 today would provide that magical third instance that proves the trend and would set in motion a whole new "GOP screwed in November" narrative. The NRCC knows this, which is why they've spent at least $1.4 million on the race; and it's why they brought out the big guns to campaign with Republican candidate Greg Davis yesterday:

Davis spent the final day before the election rallying with Cheney, Sen. Roger Wicker (R), Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant (R), whipping up voters from Tupelo to Oxford to Batesville to his base in DeSoto County, where Cheney was set to appear.

Former Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) have also helped in recent days.

Yet, despite this, Chris Cilizza reports that things are not looking good at all for Davis:

Despite the onslaught of spending, knowledgeable sources on both sides of the aisle insist little has changed in the last 21 days. Childers is believed to have a mid single digit lead over Davis with Republican strategists turning pessimistic about their chances in the last 48 hours or so.

The Thorn Papers concurs:

A little bird just informed me that the Republicans' own internal polls are showing Childers up five.

Not that that should prevent anyone from, as Jonathan urged earlier, to phonebank for Childers today. Still just under an hour of voting left.

Hat tip to Cotton Mouth Blog for the links.

Check back here for live results once polls close at 8pm EDT.

In addition to West Virginia's presidential primary, there will also be two high-stakes elections tomorrow that we'll be following closely.

• NE-Sen The first is the Nebraska Democratic primary for senate. Voters will be choosing between netroots allstar Scott Kleeb, who made a name for himself in 2006 during his impressive run for the 3rd district congressional seat, and life-long Republican businessman Tony Raimondo who switched parties just to run for the senate. The choice is clear. Not only is Kleeb a champion of the netroots, but he is a proud Democrat in reddest of red Nebraska.

  New Nebraska Network has a rundown on the distinctions Kleeb is drawing between himself and Raimondo.

  This  editorial from the Lincoln Journal Star calls it a horserace -- it could go any way tomorrow, so go HERE to phonebank for Scott to get the vote out for him tomorrow.

  Also, here's Scott's final ad of the primary:

• MS-01 Remember the nailbiter of a special election in MS-01 from last month when Democrat Travis Childers almost beat Republican Greg Davis outright to fill out the remainder of former congressman Roger Wicker's term in congress? Since Childers came just short of the 50% threshold, tomorrow will be the runoff between Childers and Davis.

  WaPo on what's at stake tomorrow:

  With lots of help from Washington -- including more than $1.3 million in campaign cash and a last-minute visit by Vice President Cheney -- Mississippi Republicans are desperately trying to retain a congressional seat in one of the most reliably conservative districts in the nation.

  The stakes in the 1st District special election couldn't be higher, strategically or symbolically. The loss of a traditionally GOP seat to a Democrat would be the third in a special election this spring and the second in the Deep South after the May 3 victory of Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.)

  The importance of this race has not been lost on the DCCC who, to their credit, have spent $1.8 million of their considerable warchest on the race and have set up a virtual phonebank so you can help get out the vote for Travis Childers tomorrow.

  Check in with Cotton Mouth Blog for local coverage of this important race.

First a big shout out to MyDD for their front page links to our coverage at Cotton Mouth of MS-01.

We are in a street fight down here.  Travis Childers has an oppurtunity to lay claim for the Democratic Party a congresssional district that voted 62% for Bush in 2004.  He is up against Republican Greg Davis who has offered nothing but vicious attack ads.  

We are in a dogfight down here in Mississippi for a congressional seat that is supposed to be "safe republican".  MS-01, an R+10 district is down to a runoff on May 13 between Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis.  Childers won a plurality of 49.6 percent in the special election, just a few hundred short of victory.

Jonathan followed the results of that other race Tuesday night, the special election to fill the MS-01 congressional seat vacated by now Senator Roger Wicker. The result was fairly stunning: in an R+10 district, the Democrat Travis Childers almost defeated outright the Republican Greg Davis, winning 49% to 46%, leading to a run-off on May 13.

No matter what happens in 3 weeks, this result should be a wake up call to national Republicans and specifically John McCain for a few reasons. Not only was this a red district (it went for Bush with 62% of the vote against Kerry in 2004) but it's in the heart of the south, the GOP's last remaining stronghold, and their playbook didn't work there.

"Liberals are on the march," the narrator warned in one Davis advertisement, which described the Republican as a "pro-life conservative" and urged voters to "send a message to Washington liberals." [...]

At least in part, Mr. Childers was able to deflect Republican efforts to tie him to national Democratic figures held in deep suspicion here, like Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. A nursing home owner as well as the chancery clerk, or county financial administrator, Mr. Childers, 50, styled himself a Mississippi Democrat, marking a distinction with the national party, which he said he disagreed with on some issues.

But while Childers effectively blurred the distinctions between himself and his Republican challenger, the issues on which he did distinguish himself, the issues that won him a plurality in a bright red southern district, should send shivers down John McCain's spine.

But the Republicans' hold is being unexpectedly tested by a self-described "Mississippi Democrat," a gregarious local courthouse official whose positions on social issues -- guns, abortion, same-sex marriage -- are indistinguishable from those of the other party. Democrats are hoping to add the candidate, Travis Childers, 50, to the raft of conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats elected in the 2006 midterm elections, due partly to economic appeals and doubts about the war. [...]

Up and down the rolling hills, black-soil prairies and small towns of this upstate district stretching north to Tennessee, Mr. Childers makes frequent appeals to what he calls "working folks" struggling in a weak economy, and expresses his opposition to a war policy he says is "not working."

So not only is this a reminder that, as Matt Stoller writes:

The public hates Republicans, and larger macro factors are at play...the economy and Iraq.  No one likes Republicans, even in R+10 districts.

But as Eric Kleefeld puts it, the result Shows Unpopularity Of Iraq War In Deep Red States.

So, John McCain and Republicans nationally who are continuing to run on the war, should be on notice; and as for any cautious Democratic challengers who still wonder if running against the war is politically perilous just because it's off the front page, they should take a lesson from the MS-01 race.