[See Update on new national polls from USA Today/Gallup and CBS/NY Times at bottom]

General Election polls continue to demonstrate that Clinton is the far stronger candidate against McCain than Obama.

Real Clear Politics has data from 6 recent national General Election polls.  In a Clinton v. McCain match-up, Clinton beats McCain in FIVE of the 6 polls. In an Obama v. McCain match-up, McCain beats Obama in 3 of the polls and ties him in one.

More importantly, in key battleground states, Clinton beats McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, while Obama loses to McCain in all 3 states. And RCP highlights a recent McClathy article about Obama's likely loss in Indiana to McCain. A new Rasmussen poll for New Hampshire claims "Clinton gains on McCain...Obama heads in opposite direction."

Obama's problems with working class voters have worsened, according to a story posted yesterday by the AP:

In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll...53 percent of whites who have not completed college viewed Obama unfavorably, up a dozen percentage points from November. During that period, the numbers viewing Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain negatively have stayed about even.

In contrast, Hillary Clinton's strength among seniors, women, and key demographic groups such as Catholics improves with each election, as most recently seen in Pennsylvania.

*CLINTON, THE POPULIST*
Hillary Clinton is a candidate of the people, successfully delivering a populist message across American towns,  cities, and suburbs.  As the Washington Post said recently, "Clinton Is In Her Element:"

Clinton attacks the rope line with more gusto than her husband, who invented the genre in modern campaigns.

~snip~

Clinton has found a home -- and a potentially receptive audience -- among rural Democrats...Small towns. Middle-class and working-class. Older voters. Women.

~snip~

The rope line in Terre Haute late Thursday was dominated by women of all ages, who are as passionate in their support of Clinton as Obama supporters are for their candidate

UPDATE ON TWO NEW POLLS:

A USA Today/Gallup poll released on 5/5/08 gives Clinton a 7 point lead over Obama, "the first time in 3 months she has been ahead." USA Today writes:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The USA Today/Gallup poll also demonstrates Clinton's strength on a number of variables:

Clinton Obama Advantage

Is a strong and decisive leader 53 37: Clinton +16

Has the best chance of beating John McCain in November 48 43: Clinton +5

Shares your values 47 42: Clinton +5

Cares about the needs of people like you 47 43: Clinton +4

A CBS/NYT poll released on 5/4/08 is being publicized by many news sources as showing a 12-pt. lead for Obama over Clinton, but this is among those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary.

However, Clinton actually leads Obama by 1 point when the question is asked of "registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats, regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary".

This means that Obama has lost substantial support among people who have already voted for him.

In other good news for Clinton, the CBS/NYT pollster's report states:

For the first time since October 2007, more registered voters overall have a favorable impression of Clinton than an unfavorable one.

and...

When asked who is "tough enough to make hard choices," Clinton gets 70%, McCain 71%, and Obama 58%.

See related post 2 New Polls: MORE HILLARY MOMENTUM.

Barack Obama today joined with progressive hero Senator Bernard Sanders (I-VT) to introduce the Keep Americans Warm Act of 2007. It may sound like something you read in the Onion but it is real. His legislation would provide an additional $1 billion in emergency funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) to ensure that millions of low-income families, senior citizens, and disabled Americans are able to heat their homes, keep their lights on, and cook their food during the coldest months of the year. Bush proposed reducing LIHEAP funding in his budget proposal. Then he turned around and vetoed LIHEAP funding included in the Senate-passed version of the Labor HHS bill. This puts millions of Americans at risk of not being able to heat their homes this winter. Most of us probably will be able to heat our homes but the reality is that millions simply can't afford it.

What is a 57-year old man doing in a week-long summer camp designed for campaign interns and volunteers?  Especially one who has spent much of his professional life as a political reporter and analyst with the U.S. Department of State.  The answer: learning new skills and networking.  But most of all, getting in touch with the reason that I believe this is the most important election of my lifetime.

This blog originally appeared at
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community /blog/markwiznitzer

This is Nate Willems.  I was a regional director for Howard Dean's Iowa campaign and am finishing law school at the University of Iowa.

This felt more like a caucus event.  John and Elizabeth Edwards spoke to about 900 people in the old gym at Cedar Rapids Prairie High School tonight.  There was no rock star aura, no gimmicks, no particular theme, just a Democratic candidate talking about his values and what he believes America should stand for.

When the doors opened at 5:00 p.m., most of the people on hand to take the good seats were seniors.  I spoke to a pair of older, female activists from rural Tama County who had driven the 60 miles to Cedar Rapids.  One woman had caucused for Edwards in 2004, the other had caucused for Dean.  The Edwards supporter fully intends to caucus for Edwards again.  Perhaps not surprisingly, she said that her friends who caucused for Edwards four years ago all think he would have beat Bush and all intend to caucus for him this time.  She told me that her granddaughter who works in Des Moines is supporting Clinton.  She told her granddaughter, "That's fine.  She's a Democrat.  But I'll talk to you after the caucuses."

Our former Dean supporter is deciding between Edwards and Obama.  She thinks Obama was amazing at the convention in 2004 and at the Harkin Steak Fry.  He wasn't as impressive the last time she saw him, "some of the glitter had faded," "but you can't expect him to be so great all of the time."  Her first issue is the war in Iraq, and she said, "I understand that Obama is supposed to have opposed it from the beginning."  Both of these ladies, though, are unsure of whether a woman or minority can be elected president.

The recent people powered movement of the CT-Senate race isnt the only place where good people are finding their voice! Deep in the hollows of WV, something miraculous is happening...

If we fail as parents, we have failed as Americans - Bo Webb

Grandfather Ed Wiley is no traditional environmentalist, child rights advocate, or political activist. His history and his heritage run deep into the coal encrusted veins of the Appalachian Mountains.

Ed Wiley has never fought sludge impoundments. He has built them.

He has never boycotted coal. He has extracted it.

He worked in processing plants just like the one less than a football field from Marsh Fork Elementary School, in Sundial, WV - full of enormous clanging machinery, explosive gases, and chemically treated coal dust.

He helped build the 2.8 billion gallon sludge impoundment directly above Marsh Fork Elementary School where his 11-year old granddaughter goes to school and is poisoned everyday by those same chemicals.

Now this man is spending his retirement walking 455 miles over 40 days and nights in the heat of summer!

Why?...

The gender gap is not the only promising piece of data contained in the Cook Political Report poll (.pdf) mentioned in the previous post. On the generic congressional ballot question, which showed the Democrats with a respectable 46 percent to 36 percent lead among registered voters, older voters -- those age 65 and above -- favored the Dems by a 12-point margin, an impressive turnaround from the 2004 presidential election when George Bush carried the senior vote by 8 points (note that this group was 60 and above, not 65 and above like in the Cook poll).

The Medicare prescription drug bill was supposed to be the implement with which the Republicans would wrest older voters from the Democratic coalition. Indeed, after the bill was rammed through the Republican Congress but before the plan was implemented, it appeared as though the Republicans would be able to win more votes from older voters. As noted above, President Bush carried the 60 and older vote by a substantial margin in 2004, helping him gain reelection.

But now it looks like older voters are ready to come back home to the Democratic Party -- a very positive development for the Dems given the fact that seniors are more likely than any other age group to turn out in elections, particularly non-presidential year elections. If older voters do vote Democratic this fall at anywhere near the rate where the Cook poll currently finds them, it is not at all inconceivable that we'll be dealing with Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid come January.

In 2004, the age group among which George W. Bush performed best were older voters -- those aged 60 and above. Among this segment, which made up just under a quarter of the electorate on election day, the President bested John Kerry by a 54 percent to 46 percent margin.

As I noted last month, much of this strength in the polls could be tied to high expectations for the coming Medicare prescription drug plan, which was devised by the Bush White House and rammed through Congress with minimal Democratic support. As a result of the highly partisan nature of the bill's passage, it was no wonder that older voters switched their voting pattern in 2004 and backed Republicans in nearly unprecedented numbers (remember that Al Gore carried older voters by a healthy margin in 2000).

New polling indicates, however, that seniors are ready to come home to the Democratic Party. Similar to the polling referenced in my post last month, which found that a vast majority of older voters found the Republican Rx plan confusing, the latest polling on the bungled program shows older voters particularly disapproving.

The Kaiser Family Foundation, which is deeply involved in healthcare around the country, commissioned a poll this month studying Americans' attitudes towards the new program, and the results of the survey are quite interesting. Among Americans aged 65 and older, only about a third understand the new program, while three-fifths do not. Even more noteworthy, among this same subset of voters, only 23 percent hold a favorable view towards the program while almost twice as many hold an unfavorable view towards it.

In order to maximize their electoral potential for 2006, the Democrats must tap into seniors' widespread discontent and confusion about the Republican-envisioned Medicare prescription drug plan. And there is quite a bit of room for Democratic growth among seniors this November. A cursory look at exit polling from the last two presidential elections finds that had John Kerry performed as well among seniors as had Al Gore (just 52 percent of the two-party popular vote), he would have received a full 1.5 percent more of the popular vote -- perhaps enough to have shifted a key swing state or two in the direction of the Democrats, thus possibly changing the outcome of the election. Given the fact that a large plurality of older Americans are already discontented with the Republican program, it's not at all inconceivable that the Democrats would be able to pull in 52 percent of the support of older voters, or perhaps even more, pushing them above 50 percent in the national, popular vote for the House this fall and ensuring that at least one half of Congress is under Democratic control next year.