I know that 2209 is the new talking point, but if - as expected - Obama hits 2024 before the rules committee meets, 2209 isn't going to matter.  Why?  Once again it's math.

In the first place, the odds of a new magic number being 2209 is minimal.  The rules committee is likely to at least enact the Republican 50% penalty which would lower that number.  I'm going to assume the best case for Clinton and give the states no penalty.

OK, let's look at how Obama got to 2025.  He needs 159 more delegates now according to DemComWatch, let's say he gets 60 from OR/KY/WV (a pretty achievable goal) and 25 from add ons (again low balling his likely total), and 74 superdelegate commitments after he clinches the pledged delegate lead.

So he's at 2025, the rules committee meets, and says FL and MI counts in full.  He's doomed, right?   Wrong.  Remember, Obama is going to get some of those delegates.  Michigan's recent plan - not the Obama camp's plan mind you, but Michigan's - would give him 59 delegates.  In Florida, he earned 67 delegates.  So immediately he'd be at 2151.  He also has 6 superdelegate commitments from those states (5 from MI, one from FL), so he's be at 2157. Moreover, the elections aren't over.

Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota would still vote.  Of those 86 delegates, Obama would receive close to 40.  That gets him to 2197.  

So with conservative assumptions, even with MI and FL counted in full, Obama would be within 12 delegates of the nomination with 164 superdelegates left to commit (remember the number is higher because I'm giving FL and MI their superdelegates).  Clinton would not be able to reach the magic number herself even if all of them committed - the remaining Edwards delegates would block her chances of getting to 2209 - but the fact is that they're not going to go 153-11 against Obama barring the kind of disaster that would prevent Obama from getting the nomination without MI/FL counting.

So 2209 or 2024 doesn't make much of a difference.  If Obama can get to one, he can get to the other.