If you love Hillary, you won't love today's Left, Right & Center...but it's a good show, with discussion of Hillary's endgame (I know! don't blame me, I am just the messenger!), McCain's age, health and Veepstakes, Obama's gaffe and lastly, Bob blames Bush for high oil prices. We'd love to hear your comments, tune in to the podcast anytime, the live stream at 2:30 and 7 pm pacific time, or listen later on-demand at KCRW.com. (Oh yeah: in SoCal, we're on air, too! We are a radio station, after all! 89.9 FM and other frequencies.)

{UPDATE: Yer lameness had the Arizona vote totals wrong (thanks minvis!). So, I take most of what follows back . . . Obama in fact, using my calculations, leads Clinton by 82,781 votes. She has 12,687,081 primary votes and he has 12,769,862. Obama leads Clinton 50.16% to 49.84%.}

NEVERMIND: I realize it may be hard to read the chart below, but I see an excel spreadsheet as the only way to question the vote totals in Max Fletcher's What will it take for Clinton to catch Obama in the popular vote?, at openleft and at mydd.

NEW CHART W ACCURATE nearly 50/50 vote split:

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 24
State polls are all May 4--June 24. Last update: June 24, 4:10 pm eastern

State	Est. Date	# Polls	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Richardson
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	Q1	$23.4M	$17.7M	$9.6M	$5.0M
Iowa	Jan 07	7	22.7%	19.6%	26.7%	8.0%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	5	33.6%	20.6%	16.0%	9.4%
Nevada	Jan 19	2	39.5%	16.5%	14.0%	6.5%
South Carolina	Jan 22	5	29.2%	27.6%	16.8%	--
Florida	Jan 29	7	36.9%	18.1%	16.6%	5.2%
National	Feb 05	NA	34.0%	22.1%	12.2%	3.0%

It's all about Iowa. If Clinton were to win Iowa, she will probably run the table. She probably would even be OK if she finishes in second in Iowa, as long as Obama isn't the winner. But what happens if she finishes third, or even fourth in the state? Will it be enough to wipe out her lead in New Hampshire? That is a difficult question to answer. The primary calendar remains another huge question mark. Iowa and New Hampshire might move as much as one full month before Nevada, which changes the strategic landscape entirely. Richardson's continued rise, as he now surpasses the 5% threshold even in Florida, is also interesting.

Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 24
State polls are all May 30--June 24. Last update: June 24, 4:10 pm eastern

State	Est. Date	# Polls	Giuliani	Romney	F. Thompson	McCain
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	Q1	$9.7M	$9.1M	--	$2.6M
Iowa	Jan 07	3	11.7%	28.3%	14.0%	8.0%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	3	17.7%	27.3%	10.7%	17.7%
Nevada	Jan 19	2	19.0%	21.5%	20.5%	12.0%
South Carolina	Jan 22	2	17.5%	13.5%	26.0%	11.0%
Florida	Jan 29	2	30.5%	10.0%	17.0%	11.5%
National	Feb 05	NA	26.3%	9.6%	17.3%	16.8%

For Republicans, I have removed all state polls that were conducted before Thompson's announcement. His entrance represents a major watershed in the Republican nomination campaign that renders all pre-Thompson polls meaningless. As far as the horserace goes, I know I have already written it several times, but since it feels so good, I'll write it again anyway: McCain is finished. His best showing is a tie for second in New Hampshire, where he trails Romney by almost ten points. The other three, Giuliani, Romney and Thompson, are very difficult to separate right now, although neither the trends nor the early state polls favor Giuliani. Can Giuliani survive poor early state showings and still do well in both Florida and on February 5th,, or will he goes the way of McCain, simply with more lag time? Can Romney translate strong early state showings into big time results on February 5th, or will he start to fade now that Thompson is a real competitor for the anti-McCain / Giuliani vote? Will Thompson continue to rise, and eventually wipe the other candidates away, or will he stagnate in the early states, and remain a regional (Southern and Mountain West) candidate? Right now, this is one helluva horserace, with far more twists and turns than the Democratic side of the campaign.

I'm a big fan of Pollster.com, and so when they finally released graphs and trendlines on the 2008 early states back on Monday, I couldn't let my hiatus from blogging stand in the way. Here are my Democratic and Republican Nomination "at a glance" tables, entirely utilizing Pollster.com estimated polling trends (for some background on the Pollster.com trends, see here and here):

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 21
Polling estimates taken from Pollster.com

State	Est. Date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Richardson
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	$23.4M	$17.7M	$9.6M	$5.0M
Iowa	Jan 07	21.0%	19.1%	25.0%	10.8%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	33.4%	19.3%	16.4%	9.1%
Nevada	Jan 19	36.0%	16.5%	14.0%	5.5%
South Carolina	Jan 22	26.7%	32.0%	11.9%	1.3%
Florida	Jan 29	37.9%	18.7%	13.3%	3.9%
National	Feb 05	34.0%	22.1%	12.2%	3.0%

The most interesting graph for Democrats is in Iowa, which shows Edwards, Clinton and Obama all slightly, and slowly, trending down. The big beneficiary is obviously Richardson, who clearly seems to be a player in Iowa now. I still have to wonder what will happen to the campaign if Clinton finishes in third, or even fourth, in Iowa. Will it be enough to eliminate her advantage in New Hampshire, Nevada, or national polls? I honestly have no idea, which is why Iowa remains the most interesting element of the Democratic horserace right now.

Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 21
Polling estimates taken from Pollster.com

State	Est. Date	Giuliani	Romney	F. Thompson	McCain
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	$9.7M	$9.1M	NA	$2.6M
Iowa	Jan 07	12.3%	25.8%	16.8%	9.4%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	17.6%	27.9%	10.9%	20.9%
Nevada	Jan 19	32.5%	15.0%	13.0%	18.5%
South Carolina	Jan 22	19.1%	12.1%	24.7%	7.6%
Florida	Jan 29	29.6%	7.7%	21.1%	12.3%
National	Feb 05	26.3%	9.6%	17.3%	16.8%

Giuliani's advantage in Nevada is overstated largely due to the small number of polls in the state, as the two most recent polls out of Nevada actually average to a slight advantage for Romney. Also, as McCain craters in Iowa and South Carolina, as he falls behind Fred Thompson nationally, and as his monetary woes continue, I have dropped him to fourth place in the Republican nomination contest. He really seems to be finished. Also, while the top three on the Republican side, Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson, are difficult to separate at this point, it probably won't be long before Giuliani drops into third place. If Fred Thompson can get a nice monetary haul, and also move up in New Hampshire polls, the Republican nomination will rather surprisingly become a battle between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Notably, every Democrat leads both Thompson and Romney in head-to-head poll averages, although Clinton's leads are considerably narrower than Edwards' and Obama's. Also, Thompson keeps all Dems under 50%.

Home state advantage has tended to be an important factor in presidential primaries. Since the present system was established in 1972, the only candidates to win a primary or caucus without also taking their home states have been Shirley Chisholm in 1972, Jerry Brown in 1980 and 1992, Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, Bob Kerrey in 1992 and Wesley Clark in 2004.

All of these events can be explained away. Chisholm and Jackson's powerbase was within the black community, not within their home states. In 1980 Michigan was apparently not seriously contested by anbody aside from Brown and LaRouche. Kerrey's win in South Dakota was probably aided by the state's proximity to Nebraska and his campaign was dead by the time the primary season reached Omaha. Similarly, California was almost dead last in 1992, so Brown's defeat was already assured. Clark's victory in Oklahoma could be put down to the conservative nature of that state as much as anything else, whilst the candidate came from a neighbouring state and had dropped out by the time Arkansas came round.

Clearly home support is important, then. There's no other way to explain, for instance, Dean's victory in Vermont in 2004. Yet if one compares a map of primary/caucus wins from 1972 to the 2004 map you'll see a much simpler picture. Some of this is because campaigns tend to be much more national. Sectional or regional candidacies just aren't viable. But I'd also argue that the power of being a favourite son candidate just isn't what it used to be.

Read on, and I'll use the early-state polling to explain why...

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 18
State polls are all May 04-June 18, except Nevada. Last update: June 18, 8:30 am eastern

State	Est. Date	# Polls	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Richardson
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	Q1	$23.4M	$17.7M	$9.6M	$5.0M
Iowa	Jan 07	6	22.8%	19.8%	27.7%	8.3%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	5	32.4%	20.0%	15.2%	9.2%
Nevada	Jan 19	4	34.0%	17.5%	13.8%	5.0%
South Carolina	Jan 22	5	29.2%	27.6%	16.8%	--
Florida	Jan 29	7	37.3%	20.1%	16.0%	--
National	Feb 05	NA	34.5%	22.7%	12.4%	--

Given these numbers showing a seemingly solid Clinton lead, the most interesting scenario to consider would be if Clinton finishes in third (or fourth!) place in Iowa. Were we to enter the primary season with these numbers, such an outcome appears to be the only way her candidacy would face serious difficulties. Of the last six Iowa polls, two showed her ahead, one showed her in second, one showed her tied for second, and two showed her in third. So, clearly, it is possible for Clinton to finish in third place in Iowa, especially when one considers that upward movement for her in the state is unlikely. The main questions then become what impact such a defeat will have on her New Hampshire standing, especially with Edwards leading Iowa but Obama in a clear second in New Hampshire. Would Edwards move past Obama in New Hampshire if he won Iowa, and would that be enough for him to also pass Clinton in New Hampshire? Can Obama win New Hampshire if he comes in second in Iowa? If Edwards wins Iowa, and Obama wins New Hampshire, would the dueling momentum cancel each other out, and allow Clinton to maintain the lead nationally? And what impact will Nevada have on momentum?

Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 18
State polls are all May 04-June 18, except Nevada. Last update: June 18, 8:30 am eastern

State	Est. Date	# Polls	Giuliani	Romney	McCain	F. Thompson
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	Q1	$9.7M	$9.1M	$2.6M	--
Iowa	Jan 07	6	16.8%	22.0%	17.3%	9.8%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	5	19.2%	28.8%	20.8%	8.2%
Nevada	Jan 19	4	30.3%	13.3%	17.8%	10.0%
South Carolina	Jan 22	6	19.2%	10.8%	18.7%	16.0%
Florida	Jan 29	5	30.4%	12.1%	14.1%	14.1%
National	Feb 05	NA	27.0%	9.9%	17.0%	16.3%

It is getting hard to see a way back for McCain who, despite nearly 100% name recognition, is trending down in the polls, leads nowhere, and is basically out of money. At the top, it is a confusing battle between Romney, who leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Giuliani, who leads virtually everywhere else. Will Romney's early state advantage be enough to overtake Giuliani nationally? The two are about roughly equal in money. Also, Fred Thompson has led in both of his post-announcement South Carolina polls, and he has also moved into second place in national polls. It will be interesting to see what kind of momentum he can gather over the next month or so.

To provide some more context on the 2008 election, I thought it was about time to compliment my Democratic Nomination At A Glance chart with a Republican Nomination At A Glance chart:

Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 12
State polls are all May 08-June 12, except Nevada. Last update: June 12, 12:30 pm eastern

State	Est. Date	# Polls	Romney	Giuliani	McCain	F. Thompson
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	Q1	$9.1M	$9.7M	$2.6M	--
Iowa	Jan 07	6	22.0%	16.8%	17.3%	9.8%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	4	28.8%	19.2%	20.8%	8.2%
Nevada	Jan 19	4	13.3%	30.3%	17.8%	10.0%
South Carolina	Jan 22	4	11.5%	18.5%	19.5%	14.8%
Florida	Jan 29	5	12.0%	30.6%	13.2%	15.4%
National	Feb 05	8	10.5%	26.0%	15.8%	16.5%

As the Green Papers notes, these dates are very tentative. Right now, the South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for February 2nd, but I bet it moves up. Also, Republicans have not yet announced a Nevada caucus on January 19th, but they are strongly considering it. Further, Wyoming seems to be holding its caucus on January 22nd, but there are no polls and I'm not sure anyone will notice.

No matter what the primary calendar looks like, a quick look at this chart reveals just how confused the Republican nomination process is right now. Romney holds Iowa and New Hampshire, but trails Giuliani badly in both Florida and the national polls. The two are just about even in money. McCain, despite still clinging to a narrow lead in South Carolina, pretty much looks like he is done here. He is well behind in money, in national polls, and in most early state polls. Thompson clearly has an opportunity, but he also clearly hasn't shot to the top. Just compare this chaos to the seemingly orderly Democratic nomination:

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 12
State polls are all May 08-June 12, except Nevada. Last update: June 12, 12:30 pm eastern

State	Est. Date	# Polls	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Richardson
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	Q1	$23.4M	$17.7M	$9.6M	$5.0M
Iowa	Jan 07	6	22.8%	19.8%	27.7%	8.3%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	5	32.4%	20.0%	15.2%	9.2%
Nevada	Jan 19	4	34.0%	17.5%	13.8%	5.0%
South Carolina	Jan 22	4	30.3%	26.0%	17.5%	--
Florida	Jan 29	6	36.0%	20.7%	15.8%	--
National--High	Feb 05	5	38.2%	28.0%	13.0%	--
National--Low	Feb 05	7	33.9%	24.3%	11.0%	--

All the same notes from yesterday's poll still apply. It certainly is unusual to see Republicans so much more chaotic than Democrats. In recent years leaders of the Republican Party have made pleasing their base their number one priority, while Democratic leaders are more prone to ignore their base. Right now, if I had to guess, the most likely outcome appears to be Clinton defeating Romney in the general election. However, there is a long, long time to go, and by "most likely" I mean something like a 5-10% chance. With most candidates lacking much "hard" support, with the primary calendars still in flux, with new financial reports due in three weeks, with early state poll numbers still showing highly varied results, and with the still possible entry of more candidates in the campaign, there should be enough chaos to go around on both sides.

Here are the new numbers:

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 11
State polls are all May 08-June 11, except Nevada. Last update: June 11, 10:00 am eastern

State	Est. Date	# Polls	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Richardson
Net Avail Cash	Mar 31	Q1	$23.4M	$17.7M	$9.6M	$5.0M
Iowa	Jan 07	6	22.8%	19.8%	27.7%	8.3%
New Hampshire	Jan 15	4	31.5%	19.5%	16.0%	9.0%
Nevada	Jan 19	4	34.0%	17.5%	13.8%	5.0%
South Carolina	Jan 22	4	30.3%	26.0%	17.5%	--
Florida	Jan 29	5	35.2%	17.8%	16.2%	--
National--High	Feb 05	5	38.2%	28.0%	13.0%	--
National--Low	Feb 05	6	34.0%	24.7%	11.5%	--

Not a huge amount of change this week. Clinton's national lead has increased a bit, but mainly that is because the Gallup poll showing a tie now appears to be a clear outlier and the number of data points used to determine the average has increased (today's Rasmussen numbers are included, for example). Adding numbers to Nevada, even if old, makes the chart look a little nicer, I think. The four Nevada polls were taken from March 6th--May 1st.

One bit of commentary I will make is to note that while Clinton's lead looks quite solid, I am not convinced it is currently large enough to hold up against a third place finish in Iowa. She might be able to finish third in Iowa, and come back to win in New Hampshire, but then again she might not. Historically speaking, the average Iowa bump for non-national frontrunners has been 14 points. (I heard that number somewhere in 2004. Don't ask me for a link--I've looked everywhere. Might be a useful research project for a diarist or for me later in the week.) In New Hampshire, with Obama down 12%, and Edwards down 15.5%, a third place Iowa finish for Clinton would suddenly make the campaign nearly a dead-heat, both in New Hampshire and nationally.

Methodological Notes: Last week's standings can be found here. Methodology for the high-end average can be found here, and methodology for the low-end national average can be found here. "Net Available Cash" means total cash on hand, minus debts, minus money raised for general election. Open Secrets.org makes all relevant information on this subject readily available. All state polls doe not include all Gore, where possible. No Nevada polls have been conducted in the last five weeks, and the four polls used the determine the Nevada average date from March 6-May 1. Also, Michigan has been removed from the table, since it appears they will not go on January 29th after all. One New Hampshire poll and one Florida poll conducted in the last four weeks were not included in the averages because the trial heat questions in those polls only gave Clinton, Obama and Edwards as options. One national poll conducted in the last two weeks was also left out for that same reason. The fourth Florida poll was the IVR poll released on MyDD, and I opted to go with the "blended" results for political reasons (didn't want to anger anyone). Finally, the dates for the primaries and caucuses are not fixed, but they are my current best guesses.