Even Bush is sick of the Iraq fiasco...he has been mumbling about pulling out troops and about a "time horizon"...yes, "HORIZON," not a timeline, for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Don't know about you, but I have never heard anyone talk about "time horizons" before. Makes me think of an event horizon around a black hole...which is an ominous comparison.

Remember, though, Bush's shifting to withdrawal is not by any choice of his. The Iraq government has told him in no uncertain terms that we have outlived our welcome and they do not want us there permanently.

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July. Jacob saw his first real fireworks display and loved it at first. We were watching from the 12th floor of a building right on the waterfront, so it was spectacular. Unfortunately, he was coming down with a fever and by the end was pretty unhappy. He is fine again now.

This was a big week, both locally where my friend qualified for the ballot for NYC's Sept. 9th primary election, and nationally where Obama's surge continued even as the Democrats once again showed less spine than we would like them to. More below.

It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

Rasmussen Reports released two new polls today, one out of Pennsylvania and one from New Mexico, that basically tell us what we already knew: Obama is up where we expect him to be.

In Pennsylvania, Obama's lead is not enormous, but it is growing.

It's unclear whether a unity bounce effect was at play here. Obama's support among Democrats in this Clinton country state rose 6 points since Hillary Clinton dropped out, although it's still relatively low, at 69% of Dems. This tells me Obama has a lot of room to grow in Pennsylvania, especially once Hillary Clinton begins campaigning with him this week. McCain on the other hand has 77% of Pennsylvania Republicans but is losing because of an 11 point deficit among independent voters. Interestingly, Obama's gains came principally among men; whereas last month they were tied, this month Obama leads by 8. Just because Barack's gains weren't among women doesn't mean they weren't a function of Hillary's endorsement of him, of course. If the bulk of this shift toward Barack was among former Hillary Clinton supporters who are just now embracing Barack, hopefully we can expect an exodus of her female supporters to follow in the coming months.

As Eric Kleefeld points out, Barack seems to have already convinced Hillary's Pennsylvania working class base he's their man (yet another myth to debunnk):

And despite the constant message in the primaries that Obama wouldn't be able to win "beer track" voters, the pollster's analysis has this: "Obama has a sizable lead among those voters earning less than $40,000 a year, with McCain well ahead among those who earn more than that annually."

Looking at the cross-tabs, Barack's said sizable lead amounts to 49%-34% among those making less than $20k a year and 51%-39% among those making $20-40k a year.

In New Mexico, while Obama's lead is larger, it actually ticked down 1 point since last month.

As you can see, there was definitely no unity bounce here. In fact, 4% jumped to the undecided category since May's poll, which is puzzling and something to look out for in next month's poll. But overall, there's really no cause for alarm as things stayed pretty much the same otherwise.

He has an eleven-point lead among women, and just a seven-point lead among men. Those numbers have shown little change since last month.

Obama's support comes from 72% of Democrats in New Mexico and 15% of Republicans. McCain is backed by 76% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. When it comes to unaffiliated voters, Obama has a 41% to 34% advantage. The results in that demographic are nearly identical to last month's numbers.

Some excellent numbers for Obama in New Mexico (those pesky Hispanic voters really do have a problem with him, don't they!) I agree with FBIHop, it's well past time that CNN took New Mexico out of McCain's column (they claim it leans McCain) on their electoral vote map.

Update [2008-6-23 20:32:37 by Todd Beeton]:And as if that wasn't enough good news out of New Mexico, check out this stellar headline and lede from Rasmussen's poll of the NM senate race:

New Mexico Senate: Democrat Udall's Lead Jumps After GOP Primary

Democratic Congressman Tom Udall has nearly doubled his lead over Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico's U.S. Senate race. Udall now leads 58% to 30%...

Nice.

The floods in the Midwest have continued and I include some information where I can in the Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin sections. Best of luck to all readers in the hard hit areas.

This week I return to an issue I discussed before: Republican cronies litterally killing our troops with no government oversight. This week Democratic Sentor Bob Casey is demanding an investigation of the electrocutions due to bad wiring that have been plaguing our military bases managed by a Hallibruton subsidiary. More below.

This week's newsletter includes another discussion about the Republican neglect of our infrastructure. Since I wrote it two more levees have failed, flooding Des Moines, which aren't included in my analysis. If you want to help the Midwest, you can go here.

Turning to the election, the attacks have begun in earnest. Republicans rolled out a whole slew of attacks against Barack and Michelle Obama...some borderline racist, some merely lies, and none all that effective. In most states Obama's popularity has surged such that if the election were held today, Obama would easily win with over 300 electoral votes, just like Senator Chuck Schumer predicts will happen. But keep in mind, this is just the first volley of attacks.

This was going to be a historic moment no matter what. Once the field narrowed to Obama and Clinton, we KNEW we would make history. We would have either the first black or first woman nominated for President by one of the two major parties. Well, THIS, folks, is history. Real and amazing history. We have now done what our parents couldn't do.