I am a Clinton supporter and clearly biased as such, but I think she's got a compelling argument which she can make to the Superdelegates that she is the stronger, more electable candidate against McCain.

This race is insanely close. It isn't over just because Obama crossed a threshold of pledged delegates. That simply is not the measure of winning the nomination. It is a fact that the Superdelegates will be the deciding this race. Here's what I'd be looking at if I were a Superdelegate: Momentum, momentum, momentum.

Obama indisputably had an amazing 2 months in January and February. He was racking up victories and pledged delegates. His momentum seemed unstoppable, inevitable. But then something happened on March 4th... it slowed way down.

Starting on March 4th, the momentum has actually been with Clinton. Obama has not been the dominant force. Out of the 5 months that the Democrats have been voting in primaries and caucuses, she's slightly dominated the last 3.

Here are some facts (from realclearpolitics):

Since March 4th:

- Clinton has won: RI, OH, TX primary, PA, IN, WV and KY

- Obama has won: TX caucus, VT, WY, MS, NC, OR and Guam (by 7 votes)

- Clinton has won 454 pledged delegates to Obama's 437

- Clinton has won 490,500 more popular votes than Obama

For Obama supporters who will inevitably trash this diary and say it is an irrelevant argument, I have 2 questions which I'd like honest, objective answers to (if you're so inclined):

1) If this were simply an exercise in who has the most pledged delegates, why is the nominating process stretched out over many months in the first place? Why not simply have all the contests on a single day and then call a winner? My understanding was that the entire point of holding the nomination over a long period of time is to test a candidate's momentum, fortitude, longevity, endurance, lasting appeal? Why isn't anyone examining and debating that? Why shouldn't the Superdelegates look at that?

2) What is the purpose of having Superdelegates if they exist to simply ratify the pledged delegate count? That is not their role by any definition that I've ever seen. They are supposed to be free to vote their conscience based upon who will best represent the Democratic Party (using whatever criteria they choose). They are specifically and clearly NOT to be bound by any other measure.

Via ABC's Political Punch:

Electoral maps put together by the consulting firm helmed by Karl Rove, and obtained by ABC News, show Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to be a stronger general election candidate in a hypothetical general election match-up against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., than Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.

Click HERE to see the maps and charts from Karl Rove & Co. provided by ABC.

Of special interest in the link, check out the two charts showing polling trends, and you'll see that Hillary Clinton is the ONE candidate of all three who has had signficiant momentum from March through May.

Hope the Superdelegates are paying attention!

Cross-posted at TexasDarlin

It's projected that Hillary Clinton will have more popular votes than Barack Obama on June 3rd.  Some news organizations have already declared her the popular vote leader.  

Yet many party officials seem anxious to coronate Barack Obama prior to the Democratic convention.  They must have short memories, and have forgotten the sense of outrage and injustice we (the Democrats) experienced when Al Gore was robbed of his election mandate 8 years ago.

"Hillary Democrats" will feel aggrieved if the Superdelegates over-turn their votes.  It's naive to assume that they'll jump on the Unity Express to join forces against Republican enemies in November.  Millions of Democrats (and some others too) -- the majority of whom belong to that key demographic called women -- are already steaming mad at how Clinton is being treated by her colleagues, aided by a misogynist mass media.

As a reminder, Hillary Clinton has dedicated decades of her life to fighting for progressive causes and Democratic candidates.  She is a 2-term Senator from the 3rd largest state in the union, and a major voice on the Senate Armed Services Committee.  At the end of this primary process, she will have inspired nearly 20 million people to get out and vote for her.  Millions of them are just like me -- actively campaigning and donating for the first time in our lives.

Now, this takes nothing away from Senator Obama, as he has also inspired millions of people.  But he's getting the respect due from Democratic peers while Hillary Clinton -- champion of children and sick people and veterans and women -- is being treated like a nuisance. Some have even attacked her character and dignity, such as Obama surrogate Ted Kennedy who recently said that Clinton is not "in tune with...the nobler aspirations of the American people."

In the absence of a rational explanation for this abuse, millions of women (and men too) are fuming because, frankly, it reeks of good ole fashioned back-slapping sexism.  I'm not alone in wondering out loud whether a man in Clinton's position -- that is, a serious contender for the presidential nomination who has won swing states (most recently by 41%) and built a formidable coalition needed to win the White House -- would be taunted, ridiculed, and treated like an outcast.

As a woman who has been on the receiving end of double standards, and one who happens to believe that Hillary Clinton will be the best President of my lifetime, I want to urge Senator Clinton to take her campaign all the way to the convention floor.  By earning more than half the votes cast, she has every right to make her case directly to party representatives in the proper venue, and even a responsibility to the voters.

See, this is the way it is for Clinton supporters.  If you throw Hillary under the bus, we go with her.  And although our leader would be gracious in asking us to disregard the injustice, millions of "Hillary Democrats" will be unable to do so.  "Backlash" is a real social and psychological phenomenon.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

Note:  please don't shoot the messenger.

Cross posted at texasdarlin and Taylor Marsh

TexasDarlin, all rights reserved
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign

UPDATE on another new poll at bottom

Note:  this diary expounds on an update to a previous post, here.

Two new national polls, one of which is being misrepresented by some media sources, strongly show Clinton momentum.

A USA Today/Gallup poll released on 5/5/08 gives Clinton a 7 point lead over Obama, "the first time in 3 months she has been ahead."  USA Today writes:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The USA Today/Gallup poll also demonstrates Clinton's strength on a number of variables:

Clinton Obama Advantage:

Is a strong and decisive leader 53 37: Clinton +16

Has the best chance of beating John McCain in November 48 43: Clinton +5

Shares your values 47 42: Clinton +5

Cares about the needs of people like you 47 43: Clinton +4

On only one variable, honesty and trustworthiness, does Obama lead Clinton (48 to 34).

A CBS/NYT poll released on 5/4/08 is being publicized by many news sources as showing a 12-pt. lead for Obama over Clinton, but this is among those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary.

However, Clinton actually leads Obama by 1 point when the question is asked of "registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats, regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary". This represents a net 5-point gain for Clinton since April 3.

Although the NY Times and other outlets are not fully reporting the poll's meaning, these results show that Obama has lost substantial support among people who have already voted for him.

In other good news for Clinton, the CBS/NYT pollster's report states:

For the first time since October 2007, more registered voters overall have a favorable impression of Clinton than an unfavorable one.

and...

When asked who is "tough enough to make hard choices," Clinton gets 70%, McCain 71%, and Obama 58%.

The pollster writes:

Some perceptions of Obama's qualities have shifted in the last few weeks, and he has lost his edge over Clinton on a few past strengths. He is behind both Clinton and McCain on the question of who is tough enough to make the hard decisions a president must.

Clinton has been campaigning as the "fighter" and the tough candidate who can get things done - and most voters agree.

However, more voters (52%) view Obama as the candidate who would unite the country; slightly fewer now say this about Clinton (though the gap between the two has shrunk in the last week).

Hillary clearly now has momentum.

UPDATE 5/5/08 8:18 PM PST: Ipsos Poll Shows Clinton Picking Up Steam-- Another national poll was released today, on the eve of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The new Ipsos poll confirms the momentum for Clinton, giving her a 7-point (47:40) lead in a poll conducted over the weekend. This is a net 10-point gain for Clinton from Ipsos's last poll, which was conducted April 23-27. The pollster stated its survey question as follows:

Among Democratic supporters across the country, 47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton.

I am done with the delegate count stuff.

Neither Hillary nor Barack will likely gain enough votes to win the nomination outright. We know this ad nauseum by now. So stop talking about it.

This will be a contested Democratic Convention, as it should be!

And on Tuesday the rules of the game will be changed by the will of the voters! The direction of the nomination will be changed on Tuesday. The tone of the Convention will shift on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the game will change!

Cross-posted from EENR Blog

Campaign to Put Ohio's Middle Class First

I just love it when Ian drops these Press Releases in my lap. I can't catch enough news about "Bo", because he is on the move non-stop! It must be a residual affect of that NCAA-I "Stolen Base" title he held in college!

Democratic State Senator Holds Commanding 2 to 1 Fundraising Lead Over Republican Opponent

(Canton, OH)  Congressional candidate and State Senator John Boccieri(D) continues to build momentum for his campaign to put Ohio's middle class first by holding a commanding 2 to 1 financial lead over his opponent State Senator Kirk Schuring. Boccieri has a more than $200,000 fundraising advantage over Schuring and has out-raised him in all of the reporting periods this election cycle.

"John Boccieri has built a strong campaign that speaks to voters' demands for promoting policies that put Ohio's middle class first, invests in jobs and health care here at home, and ends tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas," said Boccieri for Congress Campaign Manager Ian Walton.

Here we go you can't stop this peace train. Obama still has the momentum and after he gets through Pennsylvania it should be smooth sailing. Richardson really recognizes Obama's uniqueness.
As Richardson points out "Obama is a once in a lifetime leader who will bring people together".

This is why there is so much excitement about Obama he is new, special, but most of all he can INSPIRE and he will be everything that George Bush isn't. Obama doesn't have everything but he will get stronger. This week he took a beating and he made some mistakes. He needs to go through some tough times. He's human but the upside I believe is light years ahead of Bush and McCain. There is a reason why so many people are registering and taking part in this political process. Senator Obama and Senator Clinton. Cheers for Democracy

There has been a lot of talk about momentum recently. It is said that Obama got momentum after Feb 5th and that it was responsible for his large margins in the Potomac states and Wisconsin. And it was argued that it would carry him to victory in Ohio and Texas as well. I think it is wrong to assume that momentum is the defining factor of this primary campaign, follow me for more...