Isn't it always?

In this case, the NRCC has managed to turn lemons into lemonade, spinning Cazayoux's 3 point win in LA-06 on Saturday as a disappointment for the Democrat who was up by 9 and 7 in the final 2 polls of the district. Specifically, the desperate NRCC is touting its ads tying Cazayoux to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi as the reason for the gap's closing and putting Democrats on notice.

From CQ:

While hailing the simultaneous special election victory by Republican state Sen. Steve Scalise in the overwhelmingly Republican 1st District in and near New Orleans, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) contended that Cazayoux was actually a strong favorite to win the 6th District seat, despite its usual Republican tilt.

The NRCC continued that it had cut deeply into the supposed lead held by Cazayoux by running ads that sought to tie him to more liberal Democratic leaders such as Illinois Sen. Barack Obama , the front-running candidate for the party's presidential nomination, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California.

"This should come as a warning shot to Democrats," the NRCC said in a post-election press release. "The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped."

Pretty hilarious. They actually seem to believe their own BS or at the very least they're just showing their plumage for donors who've lost faith in the committee. Either way though, there's no doubt what the NRCC's 2008 plan for tough races in red districts is going to be, whether Barack Obama wins the nomination or not. I say bring it on.

Some initial thoughts...

• There is no overstating it: This was a huge win for the Democrats. This was a district that had been in Republican hands for decades, one that tends to lean about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections (or at least did before Hurricane Katrina). In short, this was a district that the Republicans should have been able to win but simply couldn't.

• If the Republicans can't win here, where are they going to be able to win in November? Seriously. If Democrats are winning districts that are this red -- they now in fact hold seven districts with a similar lead to the Republicans' 6 -- and are competitive in even redder districts like Mississippi's first, which leans 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, the Democrats' advantage in House elections nationwide might actually be larger than previously expected by some.

• Don Cazayoux will be a better Congressman than Woody Jenkins, or the previous incumbent Richard Baker. Yes Cazayoux will be on the right end of the Democratic caucus in the House. Nevertheless, he will undoubtedly be more progressive than either the Republican he was running against or the Republican he is replacing. As such, if you want to help keep him in Congress past January, head over to Act Blue to contribute to his reelection campaign today.

• The attacks linking Cazayoux to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama didn't work. They simply didn't. Yes, the Republicans pulled in more votes and a greater share of the vote than they did last month in the first round of balloting. So what. This is a very Republican district and yet despite of this lean and the fact that the GOP tried to make this election about Jeremiah Wright, they still lost.

  This race was very much put forward by the chattering class as a referendum on Obama's coattails (which proved to be strong in the very Republican-leaning Illinois 14th congressional district earlier this year), and Obama's coattails passed the challenge. Simply put, the Republicans may have thought they had found a silver bullet in Obama and Wright (and Pelosi, too, for that matter), but they didn't.

  And just to add one more thing... If Obama has positive coattails (or at least doesn't have negative ones) when he is mercilessly attacked in the paid media in a district (as well as the national establishment media) and yet the Democrat tied to him nevertheless pulls an upset and wins in a Republican-leaning district even without Obama even attempting to defend himself there, doesn't that kind of undercut the notion that Obama is unelectable? That he doesn't have coattails? ...?

This was a huge win tonight. Now we move on to Mississippi's first congressional district, where you can help Travis Childers and the Democrats pull off another super-upset by contributing to his campaign through ActBlue.

Update [by Jonathan Singer]: Here are the results from District 6:

2,961-vote margin for Cazayoux

Woody Jenkins (R): 46,741 votes (46.27 percent)
√ Don Cazayoux (D): 49,702 votes (49.20 percent)

512 of 512 precincts (100.0 percent) reporting as of 11:19 PM Eastern

Update [2008-5-3 23:22:46 by Jonathan Singer]: For those interested, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen have both posted statements over at The Stakeholder.

Update [2008-5-3 23:19:55 by Jonathan Singer]: With all 512 precincts within the sixth congressional district of Louisiana reporting, Democrat Don Cazayoux has beaten Republican Woody Jenkins by a 2,961-vote margin. Barring a recount with some wild results (and I can't see a reason to believe that's in store here), this should just about do it folks. More thoughts to come in a subsequent thread...

Update [2008-5-3 22:53:32 by Jonathan Singer]: I haven't seen it officially called yet, but with just 4 precincts reporting and Cazayoux up by more than 3,000 votes, it looks like the Democrats have likely picked up their second House seat previously held by a Republican this year, a huge feat. Hoo-ah!

Update [2008-5-3 22:53:32 by Jonathan Singer]: Cazayoux has jumped out to better than a 2,000-vote lead with nearly four-fifths of the vote in -- his first lead in a long time. With all of the precincts remaining to report coming out of East Baton Rouge parish, things are not looking too bad for Cazayoux. Stick around for more updates, though...

Update [2008-5-3 22:30:15 by Jonathan Singer]: Oh the ups and downs. Jenkins' lead is back up to 2,000 votes again with about 70 percent of the vote in. Still, all but one of the remaining precincts still waiting report are in East Baton Rouge, so anything can happen...

Update [2008-5-3 22:30:15 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins' lead is under 1,000 votes for the first time in a long while tonight. This thing is tightening up a lot.

Update [2008-5-3 22:30:15 by Jonathan Singer]: Is the bottom falling out of Jenkins' lead? It just fell by about two-thirds with 60 percent of the vote in. Almost all of the vote remaining comes from East Baton Rouge parish, which, again, tends to be better for the Democrats than the Republicans. This could be a nail-biter.

Update [2008-5-3 22:3:27 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins' lead is still holding with approaching 50 percent of precincts reporting. This isn't looking terribly good at this juncture, but there are still a lot of votes to be had...

Update [2008-5-3 21:58:14 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins' lead has jumped up once again and now sits at about 3,000 with a little more than a third of the vote in. Only 10 percent of East Baton Rouge parish, where the Democrats received about 6,000 more votes than the Republicans during the first round of balloting, has reported, however, so these numbers are still likely to continue to jump around.

Update [2008-5-3 21:54:59 by Jonathan Singer]: Oop. Jenkins' lead just fell by more than 50 percent, underscoring the fact that these numbers are likely to jump around. Stick around here at MyDD, though, for running updates.

Update [2008-5-3 21:54:59 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins lead has grown to nearly 2,300 votes with about an eighth of the vote in. Still a lot of precincts remaining, particularly from Democratic-friendly East Baton Rouge parish, so this one isn't over by any means.

Update [2008-5-3 21:47:19 by Jonathan Singer]: With about 10 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Woody Jenkins has taken about a 700-vote lead (down about 100 votes from a few minutes ago). It's still very early, however, so we must stay tuned.

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Polls in Louisiana close at 9pm EDT in two special congressional elections. In LA-01, Democrat Gilda Werner Reed is taking on Republican Steve Scalise and in LA-06, Democrat Don Cazayoux is taking on Republican Woody Jenkins. LA-06 is the only one of the two that looks competitive for the Democrat, which means not only could we have one more vote to add to our majority, but also one more superdelegate at the convention (you knew it had to connect to the presidential somehow.)

Swing State Project has an interesting chart of turnout from the LA-06 primary runoff election to guide expectations in that race tonight. Food for thought:

Due to sheer vote power, Baton Rouge will decide this election. This is Woody's hometown, and Bush won West and East Baton Rouge parishes by a decisive 55%-45% margin over John Kerry in 2004. Still, that's not an insurmountable margin for a down-home Southern Dem to work with, and the city of Baton Rouge itself has seen a large influx of African-American residents from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It will all come down to turnout here: Will the black vote come out strongly enough for Cazayoux, even though state Rep. Michael Jackson, defeated in the primary, is running TV ads telling his supporters that he'll run in November as an independent? The Cazayoux campaign and the DCCC have been working the field hard, but it's still, of course, up in the air until the returns come in.

Also check out The Daily Kingfish for live coverage.

Tomorrow is the congressional special election in Louisiana's 6th district, which encompasses the area in and surrounding the capital city of Baton Rouge. The district is R+7 but polling has shown Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux in the lead there, including the latest Survey USA poll (h/t Daily Kingfish).

Don Cazayoux (D) 50% (49%)
Woody Jenkins (R) 41% (42%)

The DCCC smells blood and so has upped its investment in the race including media buys, phonebanks and direct mail. Per Swing State Project:

The new expenditures tally up to $267,242, bringing the DCCC's total tab in this district to a whopping $1,185,396.

The benefits of having a congressional committee that is flush with cash. But the race means more than just an additional Democrat in congress and the DCCC knows it. This race is one of the few opportunities we'll have before November to see the excitement and increased participation inspired by the Democratic primary manifested in tangible electoral results. To that extent, this race is about more than just LA-06. Some will spin a Cazayoux win as proof of Obama's coatails in red districts but honestly I think it would be just a taste of what is going to happen in November with either candidate at the top of the ticket. However, if Cazayoux loses, or if the race ends up much tighter than polls suggest, expect it to be seen as evidence that Obama could actually be a drag downticket. The GOP is desperately trying to tie its Democratic challengers in red districts such as LA-06 and MS-01 to "liberal" Barack Obama. I suspect the tactic will backfire, but if it doesn't, cue Clinton talking points.

Per Capital briefing:

A different Freedom's Watch ad brings us to the other interesting angle in this Louisiana race -- the GOP's effort to tie Cazayoux, who is positioning himself as a conservative, to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Speaking of health care, the ad says, "Where does Don Cazayoux stand? With Barack Obama for a big government scheme."

Will this tactic work? Operatives in both parties are waiting to find out. If Cazayoux loses, supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will add another plank to their argument that Obama is unelectable in November because he can't win in conservative and rural districts. If Cazayoux wins, Obama forces can say those attacks just won't work. Either way, this contest is important in a lot more places than just Louisiana.

Update [2008-5-2 13:15:58 by Todd Beeton]:Want to help Don Cazayoux in the final hours before the election, check out his website and contact the campaign HERE.

Cross posted at Daily Kingfish and Daily Kos.

The Cazayoux campaign released this web-only video about the race:

Don's candidacy has sparked a fire amongst the unions here in LA-06. While they've worked with political candidates before, I've never seen them this excited about a candidate. If you like the idea of adding to the Democratic majority in the House with someone who will be there with us on the economic issues we all care about, then donate.

I also had the opportunity to interview Don, using questions from commenters here at Daily Kos, MyDD, and Daily Kingfish. The interview is below the jump!

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan... Very exciting stuff. If you want to help out, head over to Act Blue today.

Yesterday, the Cazayoux campaign released the results of a poll it commissioned AnzaloneLiszt Research to do on the LA-06 special general election. Here are the results:

Also, Cazayoux's favorable/unfavorable ratings are 55%/13%, which improved since the March primary, with the favorables increasing by 15%, compared to Woody's 56%/34%, which has remained static over the last month.

Further, the Republican generic ballot advantage in this district is gone ... with voters saying that 43% of them will vote for the Democrat, and 41% of them will vote for the Republican. That means Woody will have to win on his own merits.

Morning, y'all. My name is Ryan, and I am main blogger behind the Daily Kingfish. This week, I will be conducting an interview with Don Cazayoux, the Democratic nominee for the special election in Louisiana's 6th CD, which encompasses the Baton Rouge metro area.

To that end, I'm asking for a little help in regards to questions to ask him when I interview him. I'm looking for something more than the usual questions folks want to know on the red-button issues. I'm looking for questions dealing with the economy, health care, transportation issues, the mortgage crisis, the War in Iraq, etc. I will use some of those questions in the interview, and will attribute them to who asked them. So if y'all can include where you're from in your comment, I would be greatly appreciative.

Internal polling from both the Republicans and the Democrats shows that Democrat Don Cazayoux leads Republican Woody Jenkins in a head-to-head matchup one month out from the special election in Louisiana's sixth congressional district. In light of these numbers, as well as other factors, the Cook Political Report has done something rather astonishing: Rated this contest, which takes place in a district that tends to lean about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole (or at least did before Hurricane Katrina hit), as "leans Democrat." David Wasserman's fine analysis is behind a subscription wall, but I will pass this insightful graf along:

As in the recent race in Illinois's 14 th CD, the district's GOP lean - it has a PVI of R+7 - is Republicans' last best hope of saving the seat. The fact that the GOP is attempting to hold its own turf will also keep pressure on the NRCC to spend resources here in the coming weeks, even if some insiders increasingly view it as a lost cause. Indeed, the only good news for Republicans may be that advertising in the Baton Rouge market costs about a tenth of what it costs in Chicago.

If you want to help keep the pressure on the National Republican Congressional Committee at a time that House Republicans really can't afford it -- the NRCC has a net $34 million less in the bank than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- head over to Cazayoux's campaign site or Act Blue page to get involved.

Update [2008-4-10 18:0:22 by Jonathan Singer]: By the way, you can follow this race, and much more, over at The Daily Kingfish.