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Carville calls it for Obama

Want evidence that this will not go on to the convention (well if you need any more), James Carville said that Obama is going to be the nominee most likely:


"I still hear some dogs barking," Carville said, according to The State newspaper. "I'm for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee."

"As soon as I determine when that is, I'll send him a check," he added.

If you're looking for signs that the Democrats will unite around Obama, Carville offering to cut a check is a strong one.  Hopefully, things will start to calm down soon.  

We've reached a delegate tipping point

According to DemConWatch, even before adding today's SDs (4-0 in favor of Obama), Obama needs 164 delegates to win the contest.  Why is that number important?  It's also his lead in the race.

Obama is now closer to the finish line than Clinton is to Obama.  Moreover, it's easier to come up with ways where Obama will receive chunks of delegates (Conservative totals for Obama give 8-10 from WV, 20 or so from KY, 30 or so from OR, 20 or so from PR, 10 each from MT and SD plus at least 20 more add ons, which is 128 of the needed right there) than it is to come up with metrics where Clinton achieves large net totals.

This is why, even prior to WV/KY/OR, people are pivoting to the general.  Clinton should have a great day on Tuesday.  I expect her supporters to enjoy it.  However, after OR, Obama will have at least a 140 delegate lead with only 86 more pledged delegates up for grab.  It has been a hard fought race, but we really are in the end game.  Now it's time to get McCain!



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