A new Public Policy Polling survey shows the race for president in North Carolina holding fairly steady with McCain up by single digits and Bob Barr taking a solid chunk of the electorate.

Interestingly, Barr takes equally from Republicans and Democrats , although one suspects that the Democrats who would vote for Barr would never vote for Obama anyway. Barr takes 12% of independents.

Obama's clear weak spot here is among his own party base. While he wins independents by 12%, Obama is winning Dems by just 67-20, whereas McCain is winning Republicans by 83-6. Paging Bill and Hillary Clinton...

And this from PPP's blog points to a reason that North Carolina is likely to become bluer and bluer as time goes on.

Barack Obama leads 46-40 among those surveyed who were born in a place other than North Carolina. John McCain has the 49-36 advantage with natives of the state. As more and more people come to North Carolina from other places, it could trend more Democratic in national elections.

Unfortunately, Key Hagan is not performing as strongly against Elizabeth Dole in PPP's poll as Obama is against McCain as Dole continues to expand her lead to double digits and above 50%.

One bright spot for Hagan is the major upside of having Obama at the top of the ticket.

From PPP's blog:

One of the biggest red flags for Hagan is difficulty in securing the black vote. Right now she leads Dole just 52-28 with them, and the 20% of African American voters who report being undecided is higher than almost any other demographic. Hagan will have to significantly improve her standing there to have any chance this fall.

Dole's strength among African-American voters is unlikely to stick once Obama begins actively campaigning in the state, one suspects, with Hagan. This is one state where Obama's coattails are going to be unmistakeable, even if he loses the state.

Help Kay Hagan out over at our Road To 60 Act Blue page.

One of the stated goals of our Road to 60 campaign is to press Republicans to spend more of their resources in states than normal - we want them to play defense.

In North Carolina, incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole has started playing defense. Back in May, in the face of tight poll numbers, Dole dumped lots of money into statewide TV ads months before the election.

And despite her previous role as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, her service in the administrations of Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and her marriage to former Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole, Elizabeth Dole didn't actual make a single mention of the Republican party or President Bush in the ads, despite the fact that she voted with Bush 85% of the time last year.

North Carolinians aren't happy:

``She's in trouble because of the straight-up fact that she's a Republican,'' Brian Mayberry, a 35-year-old political independent, said June 20 at a Wilmington gas station while pumping $59.73 worth of gasoline into his Chevrolet Trailblazer sport utility vehicle. While ``the consensus is that she's been a good senator,'' Mayberry said he won't vote for Dole because he blames Republican President George W. Bush for high gas prices.

Democrats have a great challenger: State Senator Kay Hagan.

In the first half of May, Rasmussen, PPP, and SUSA showed Hagan actually up by one, then down by only five and four points, respectively. And despite a bump after her statewide media blitz, Dole finds herself back in a competitive race, with several polls still showing her tracking below the 50% incumbent Mendoza line.

And as Markos points out in The Hill, the tough primary Hagan fought made her campaign stronger and more prepared.

But there's a big financial gap. Reports show a 10-1 cash inequity in favor of Dole, after Hagan spent over a million dollars to win her primary.

So now is the time to step up for Kay. Kay Hagan would be another vote towards allowing the government to negotiate for lower drug prices. She favors a withdrawal from Iraq and changing focus to al Qaeda.

We can make a difference, and we have a real shot at this seat. The state has been trending Democratic, even though Republicans have carried the state for the last seven Presidential elections. But North Carolina is one of the states Obama is targeting. With the help of his registration and turnout machine to bring new Democrats to the polls, Kay Hagan can replace Elizabeth Dole. But she needs our help. Give Kay what you can.

Many of you have already seen the race-baiting ad sponsored by the NCGOP that's been floating around the web.

John McCain, fearless leader that he is took a stand against the ad saying it was inappropriate.

The NCGOP showed its respect for John McCain by completely ignoring him and following through with their plans to run the ad.  The head bigot at the NCGOP, Linda Daves, remains completely oblivious to the racist content of the ad.  You can view the MSNBC interview with Linda Daves on Pam's post at BlueNC.

Today, Pam Spaulding, from Pam's House Blend and NCDem Amy, who writes at BlueNC and MoBetterChange visited Elizabeth Dole's office in Raleigh, NC to deliver a letter with over 1200 signatures requesting that Elizabeth Dole do what she can as the top elected GOP official in NC to see that the ad is pulled.  The letter and signatures were collected thanks to Jane Hamsher and the good folks at Firedoglake, Pam's House Blend and BlueNC.

In an earlier post I mentioned this ad and was asked if I thought it would benefit Hillary Clinton.  Initially I wasn't thinking along those lines.  I felt from the beginning, and still do, that the ad will backfire on the NCGOP.   However, it does appear that the ad that looks like the NCGOP's attempt to hurt both leading gubernatorial candidates will wind up hurting Barack Obama.  Is it enough to cost him the state?  I don't know.  What do you think?

[Cross posted on DailyKos]

I, like numerous others, was extremely disheartened by John Edwards dropping out of the Presidential race.  The issues he brought forth were so crucial and so in line with my ideals that I was willing to spend my winter vacation in below freezing Iowa rather than at home in California.  John Edwards has stayed true to his goal of giving a voice to those who have none and I do not believe he should stop now, instead he should challenge Sen. Elizabeth Dole for the North Carolina Senate seat.

Cross-posted at Daily Kos

The press hasn't noted it, so I thought I should write a diary to celebrate that a first has occurred in the history of our republic.  An event without precedent in American history, a woman has won a primary in the nominating process for her party.  The woman who shattered that glass ceiling, of course, is none other than Hillary Clinton.

Kos has the results of the baseline poll he commissioned of the North Carolina senate race. Good to see the results echo Public Policy Polling's October results and even show the two Democratic challengers, Jim Neal and Kay Hagan, with slightly higher support even as Dole remains stuck below 50%.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

Dole (R) 46
Hagan (D) 39

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

Dole (R) 47
Neal (D) 37

I look forward to seeing how this plays out next year. Looks like we have a race on our hands.

I've been telling my readers over at my blog, Pam's House Blend, about why it's time to boot Senator Elizabeth Dole out of office for some time now. Never mind that I don't agree with her politics -- she's simply not doing the job she was elected to do -- represent and take care of the people of North Carolina. She's been inaccessible, no one seems to know when or if she's ever here (or on the Senate floor for that matter). The fact that she votes to affirm the interests of the Bush Administration is just rancid icing on the cake.

I decided to take a look at the Friends of Elizabeth Dole, her official campaign site. Maybe I just have it all wrong. Perhaps I can learn more about why she should continue to represent my state. After all, here's what Liddy "says" on the front page:

We will be using this Web site to keep my supporters updated about my work in the Senate, my visits back to North Carolina, and other happenings. I look forward to using this as another way of staying in touch with you.

As the North Carolina senate race has come into focus with two Democrats having officially entered the race to challenge Elizabeth Dole next year, Public Policy Polling (D) has polled head to head match-ups with Senator Dole to see where the race starts out. They also gauged Dole's approval rating in the state. As you can see below, one year out from the election, Dole starts from a very weak position, unable to achieve 50% in either support or approval.

On Oct. 24, PPP released a poll of a head-to-head match-up between Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Chapel Hill businessman Jim Neal.

601 LVs, Oct. 22, MOE 3.95%

Dole 47
Neal 32

Dole Approval:

Approve 44
Disapprove 41

Once Democratic state senator Kay Hagan declared her intention to run for the Democratic nomination for senate as well, PPP wasted no time in going into the field to poll that match-up and released the results today.

795 LVs, Oct. 30, MOE 3.4%

Dole 46
Hagan 33

Dole Approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 36

These numbers indicate at the very least that we're going to have a race on her hands. As PPP's blog reminds us, Dole's approval is even lower than that of other Republican senators who are considered top tier targets, such as Gordon Smith (R-OR) and Norm Coleman (R-MN.) And indeed, an Oct. 23 Rasmussen poll has her losing to popular Democratic governor Mike Easley 51%-42% were he to enter the race.

As PPP says:

Obviously, Mike Easley would be the Democrats' best choice and any other Democrat would not perform that well. But if a majority of voters would already consider voting for someone other than the incumbent that's not good news for her.

But perhaps even more worrisome for Dole is the extent to which North Carolina voters are sounding less and less as though they live in a red state and more like the nation as a whole.

Look at these results from Rasmussen:

4) Presidential Matchups

Clinton 43 Giuliani 44
Clinton 44 Thompson 44
Clinton 43 McCain 43
Clinton 46 Romney 41

5) When it comes to the War in Iraq, should the United States withdraw all combat troops immediately, bring the combat troops home within a year, or stay until the mission is completed?

22% Withdraw all combat troops immediately
33% Bring combat troops home within a year
41% Stay until the mission is complete
4% Not sure

Look for this race to become top tier as the Democratic candidates expand their name ID leading up to the primary to determine who will face Senator Dole in November.