One of the things frequently raised in discussions of a hypothetical "Dream Ticket," particularly by those who oppose it, is the question of Bill Clinton.  If Clinton pulls out the nomination, I would oppose Obama joining her, unless I was convinced that a victory in November hinged on it.  Obama as a VP would likely be 'contained' by turning him into a full time ribbon cutter.  The model of the actively involved VP (Cheney, Gore, Mondale) would almost assuredly be eschewed, in part because of Bill.  As such, it would be a colossal waste of Obama's talents, which as an Obama supporter I believe are significant.

If, as seems more likely at this point, Obama wins the nomination, I remain undecided about Clinton as a VP.  I don't think she is as likely to be 'contained,' and I think that a good thing.  My guess is that the success of this experiment, both for the general election campaign and the administration, would be a fairly clearly defined role for her in an administration.  If Obama demanded that in a Clinton administration, I think he would likely be humored.  I'm only going on a hunch here admittedly, but I think Obama would be more likely to deal with the potential conflicts with a VP HRC by employing her unmistakable talents in a way that would benefit all involved, and I hope this isn't a naive assumption.

But even if Obama wins and Clinton joins him on the ticket, for them to be an effective team it would be necessary to define a role for the ex-President.  This could be done informally by giving him particular projects to manage and employing him in frequent shuttle diplomacy escapades.  Perhaps by putting him in charge of the mess in Israel/Palestine and giving him the chance to try and finish something he was desperately committed to and at which I think he was largely stymied at by things beyond his control and the time limit of his presidency?  Or could it be something more formal?  Would his ego allow him to accept an official title 'beneath' President?  Would he take ambassador to the UN?  Would he take a cabinet level post?  John Quincy Adams served for years in the House of Representatives after his term as president, but that was a very long time ago and he was a very different person.  The question of Bill and whether it could be solved productively, not simply through attempts to neutralize him but by giving him a meaningful outlet, would be crucial to the success of the administration.  How would you solve it?

Today's Quinnipiac University National poll is the second poll in a row showing a majority of Democrats favoring an Obama/Clinton ticket.

By a 60 - 33 percent margin, Democrats say Obama should pick Clinton as his vice presidential running mate.

That's almost 2 to 1 among a group that prefers Obama to Clinton for the nomination by a slim 45-41 margin.

It should be noted too that the poll finds that either Obama or Clinton at the top of the ticket would defeat McCain in November, Obama by 7 points, Clinton by 5.

Interestingly, Quinnipiac finds that Clinton and Obama perform quite similarly against McCain among white voters, among men and among women. The real difference between how each Democrat fares against John McCain comes among groups with whom Obama has traditionally held more appeal. In other words, when up against John McCain, Barack is stronger among Hillary's base than Hillary is among his.

In an Obama-McCain matchup, independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 37 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Men split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, while women back Obama 49 - 36 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among white voters, while blacks back Obama 87 - 4 percent.

In a Clinton-McCain contest, independent voters split with 41 - 41 percent. Men go with McCain 46 - 42 percent while women back Clinton 51 - 36 percent. White voters back McCain 48 - 41 percent, the same margin as the Obama-McCain matchup, while black voters back Clinton 79 - 8 percent.

What I find most remarkable about these results is how close this contest is still. The poll was taken from May 8-12 in the wake of the results of last Tuesday's primaries, indeed, at the height of the post-IN & NC "it's over" talk. Yet Obama is up only 4 points above Clinton for the nomination and only fares 2 points better against McCain. It really shows you not only how popular Hillary Clinton is but also how solid her support continues to be and it really begs the question does Barack Obama want to expand the map and have a landslide victory in the fall as he has said he does or is he content to risk simply winning with 50+1? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, more and more I'm convinced that if we're really going to accomplish the former, finally, Hillary Clinton must be on the ticket.

Update [2008-5-14 21:11:59 by Todd Beeton]:I wanted to add that it's also striking how at odds the will of the voters is with conventional punditry. Not only does a majority of Democrats want Obama to pick Clinton for VP, which itself contradicts the "it'll never happen" chorus from the talking heads on the teevee, but there's also this result from the poll:

"Party leaders may be cringing over the potential damage to Democratic chances in November from the endless primary campaign, but two-thirds of the rank-and-file think Clinton ought to keep battling," Carroll added.

Senator Ted Kennedy one of Senator Obama's prominent supporter told Bloomberg TV that Barack Obama isn't likely to pick rival Hillary Clinton as a running mate. He attributed this to the "tenor of the campaign".

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/200805 09/pl_bloomberg/adga8qsyojl0

``I don't think it's possible,'' Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's ``Political Capital With Al Hunt,'' airing this weekend. That is because of the ``tenor of the campaign'' in recent weeks, Kennedy spokesman Anthony Coley said later.

Earlier Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House also dismissed the Dream ticket option.

http://www.necn.com/category/32/4893

It is clear that Obama surrogates are saying what he wouldn't say publicly.

Personally I think that is sad and potentially damaging for November General Election and for the party as I was hoping for Obama/Clinton ticket. But then that is my humble opinion and what do I know. Senator Kennedy and some of the party bosses are taking HRC supporters for granted which is a potential fault line for lot of women supporting HRC.

The prolonged battle between Obama and Clinton probably won't hurt the Democratic Party, Kennedy said. ``It's basically the divisions in terms of race and gender, and these involve people's emotions deeply,'' he said. ``Ultimately, the party is going to come together because they are so thirsty for victory.''

As spring comes upon us and John McCain comes nearer to selecting a running mate, the coal-to-diamond pressure will continue to build on our Democratic candidates to settle the dust, place unifying the party above all else, and leave one candidate to abandon years of strategizing agonizingly close to fruition.  

When lost in the dizzying cyclone of punditry, majestic rhetoric, and our projected realities, it is easy to forget that not only is winning the nomination extremely difficult but a long view of history illustrates that nominees have virtually one chance to achieve the ultimate seat of power.  Successful second acts are rare in presidential politics.

Marc Ambinder brings us the news that a former Clinton staffer has launched a petition drive urging members of the DNC to support a ticket featuring both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

A Clinton insider who served as ex campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle's executive assistant for several years has set up a new website, http://www.voteboth.com/ and plans to register with the Federal Election Commission today.

VoteBoth urges Democrats to support a joint Clinton-Obama ticket.

Its creator, Adam Parkhomenko, resigned from the campaign three weeks ago.

As Ambinder says, this raises the question of whether this effort is being driven by the campaign itself, although Parkhomenko insists it's not.

It will be interesting to see what sort of support such a drive gets considering Parkhomenko's "Clinton/Obama" construction doesn't seem to even consider a scenario in which Obama is on the top of the ticket. Actually, it's difficult to imagine the fiercest of partisans on either side signing on to this, not to mention the skepticism that either would or should accept such a ticket that permeates conventional wisdom among those who are less invested in the outcome. I still stand by the assertion that Clinton and Obama are each the other's best VP choice, even looking at it by objective measures, but I wonder if this is still the dream ticket that it used to be.

(Note: Cross-posted at DailyKos.  Always curious to see what the other side thinks.)

I know, I know.  

They hate each other.  We hate each other.  If the other candidate experiences anything other than total, absolute, crushing defeat, we will all sit at home and pout.  Or vote for McCain.  Or vote for Nader.

The goal, as I think we'd all agree, is to kick McCain's sorry old "War 4 Ever!" ass back into the mid-ages from whence he came.

The reason we can't do that just yet is that we haven't decided who should do it.

I know, I know.  Obama.  Yes we can.  Si se puede.  The math.  The will of the people.  More states, red states, delegates, popular vote.  

I know, I know.  

(Heck, I personally conceded a week ago.)  

However...

There are a handful of states to go.  And if the rest of us -- the millions who don't live in Iowa or New Hampshire  -- for one glorious primary (or caucus) day, got to feel like our vote really mattered, why should we begrudge our fellow citizens that same joy?

We shouldn't.

And so this will go on, until every single last one of us has had a say.

Because that is the American way.

But they'll kill each other!  And we'll lose to McCain!

I know, I know.

But they don't have to kill each other.  And we won't lose to McCain.  And this is how:

They run like they are the dream ticket.

They stop running against each other, and start running against McCain together.  No more debates with each other; no more negative campaigning against each other.  Positive campaigning only.  

Obama can talk about the change he wants to bring to America.

Clinton can talk about her practical solutions to fix everything that's been all fucked up for the past seven years.

And they can kick the crap out of John McCain.  Together.

But...who is the nominee?

Well, come on.

We all know who that is.  Or probably is.  But here is what matters:    

In the months that follow, the remaining states will get to vote.  And they'll get to know both of the Democratic candidates, as they travel and stump and speak about their positive qualities.  No more sniping about each other.  

(And that means no more surrogate sniping either.)

The remaining states will see the best of what both candidates have to offer as they work together to kick McCain's ass.

The remaining states will vote.

Those votes could be decisive.  Obama could blow it out.  And even if doesn't, as long as he maintains a strong lead in pledged delegates and popular vote, the superdelegates would be fully justified in choosing him.  

And he will thank Hillary Clinton.  And he will ask her to run with him, to continue their fight together against John McCain.  She might decide to run with him; she might decide to stay in the Senate, to work with him that way to enact the policies they both support.  Either way, the Democrats win.

Obama's supporters will not be happy.  They will say that Obama doesn't need Clinton, and after the way she's treated him, she can go Cheney herself.  It's time for change.

Clinton's supporters will not be happy either.  They know that Hillary has the kind of experience and knowledge and determination to be a great president.  And she's worked longer and harder than just about any one -- ever -- to get to where she is today.  They'll always believe she should have been at the top of that ticket.

But without a tie or lead in pledged delegates and/or the popular vote, that won't happen.

But you know what?  We'll deal with it.  We'll learn to like it.  We'll learn to love it.

We'll remember why we're Democrats.  Because we want to get along.  We want to work together.  We want to include everyone.  

We're dirty fucking hippies, damn it.  We're liberals.  

We're the ones who were right about this stupid war all the way back in 2002.

We're the ones who wanted to believe in our president and our government (and that SOB Colin Powell) because we don't want to be cynical.

We're the ones who think things like health care and education and clear air are important.

We're the ones who don't care who you're having sex with because everyone does it.

We're the ones who believe in science and liberty and possibility.

And we're going to beat the crap out of John McCain in November.

Because no matter which one wins the Democratic primary -- Obama or Clinton -- they're going to eat McCain for breakfast.  Not even breakfast.  A snack.  A quick few bites on the go.

Just think about it for a minute...

I'm Barack Obama. I just defeated The Clinton Machine.  The frigging Clinton Machine!  They threw their best at me, they knocked me around for more than a year, and you know what?  I'm still standing.  I'm stronger than ever.  And now I'm going to kick the crap out of McCain.

Or...

I'm Hillary Clinton. I am The Toughest Woman You Will Ever Meet.  People have been trying to take me down my whole life.  I've worked my ass off; I've had every inch of my life examined, critized, threatened, humiliated, and you know what?  I'm still standing.  I'm stronger than ever.  And now I'm going to kick the crap out of McCain.    

And it will work.

Because whoever wins the nomination will have had the toughest primary fight in history.  Old videos all over YouTube.  Cable networks and all the blogs spending every minute of every day testing the candidates, trying to knock them down, knock them out...all day long, every day, for months.

And John McCain is sitting over in a corner, having Joe Lieberman whisper the answers in his ear, mumbling about war and terrorists and tax cuts.  And no one cares.  No one's listening.  His numbers look okay for now, but that won't last.

Because when the Democrats focus on him, and the whole country is reminded of why everything sucks right now, there is no way another crusty old war lovin' Republican is going to sit in that Oval Office next January.

Not gonna happen.

It's time for the leadership to show some leadership! The Super delegates need to move in over the next few months to protect the party. To let this go on much longer will only help the Republican party and even worse destroy voter enthusiasm. I now believe that Senator Obama should choose Senator Clinton as his running mate. If the Super delegates are going to intervene then they should insist on Senator Clinton having this opportunity. This team would be unbeatable and best of all it would bring the party and the country together. It's time to see some leadership from all concerned. A.S.A.P.

NOTE: This is my first diary here at MyDD, and I'm glad to be here. I'm a big fan of Hillary Clinton, and I would be devastated if she were to not become the nominee...but I'm a realist, and I know how to do math. So, in the interest of the party (long-term), I'm proposing that we end up with the "unity" ticket of Obama/Clinton, if he goes on to win the nomination, and the same vice-versa if she were to somehow pull it out. The reason I've joined MyDD, and am joining over at DailyKos, after just being a reader for months, is to promote this idea amongst the blogosphere. I really do think that this is the only way to save our party now. So, here goes: my first diary, excerpted from my blog, Progressive Thinker.

First of all, the party has not been torn apart yet. So, quit it, Obama supporters, and deal with the fact that 48 percent, yes, almost half of the voters in the Democratic primaries have supported someone other than your demi-god. Do you honestly think Obama will have a problem raising money for the general election if he's the nominee? Would Hillary? I don't think so...look at the torrid fundraising pace they're both at, and all that money is for the primaries! Obama would outraise McCain at least 2-1 even if we didn't know the nominee until the convention because general election fundraising would start soon after Pennsylvania. So, cut out the whole "the party is being torn apart" thing just because Obama didn't close the deal last night. It's simply not true.

What is true is that the supporters of one of the candidates are going to be EXTREMELY unhappy when their candidate loses the nomination. Right now, it looks to be Hillary. It isn't just Obama supporters that "passionately" back their candidate...while he is in the lead, and it's most likely insurmountable, there is a chance that Hillary could take the popular vote lead with a Florida revote and after Pennsylvania goes, and argue that delegates aren't democratic, using the results of Texas and Washington's split contests as an example. You're just going to say that it's playing dirty, but I think it's a legitimate concern and shows one thing: our primary system is fucked up, seriously. Imagine someone winning the popular vote yet losing the nomination...it's like Gore-Bush 2000 all over again! Not saying it necessarily will happen, but it's a possibility that must be considered.