For Superdelegates:  It's The Voters Math That
Counts Most

According to the U. S. Census Bureau, the
following is a rough break down of the U. S.
population which I'll call the Voters Pool.  

Here is the URL for the link to the Census
Bureau information I am using:  
http://www.census.gov/Press-
Release/www/releases/archives/american_c ommunity
_survey_acs/007748.html

Voters Pool (initial)

13.4 % African-Americans
77   % Whites
9.6  % Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

I am assuming that "Everybody Else" primarily
includes Hispanics and Asians.  

For purposes of this article, I further
breakdown the Voters Pool with respect to
educational levels of whites since these have
been the most numerous demographic groups in the
Democratic Party primaries.  

Voters Pool (first breakdown)

13.4 % African-Americans
       Whites (77%)
23.1 %..college graduates [30% X 77%]
46.2 %...high sch. grads (not college) [60%X77%]
 7.7 % ...not high graduates [10% X 77%]
 9.6 %  Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

As far as I know, Democratic primary voting
demographics, such as shown on various TV
networks, have not differentiated between high
school grads (without college) and not high
school graduates.  Therefore, I have added high
school grads (without college) and not high
school graduates together which I call "not
college graduates".  

Voters Pool (second breakdown)

13.4 % African-Americans
       Whites (77%)
23.1 %...college graduates [30% X 77%]
53.9 %...not college grads..[46.2% + 7.7%]
 9.6 %  Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

For what follows, I know I'm making a number of
simplifications relating to age, gender, the
population distribution in specific states (such
as urban versus rural), and the effect of a
third party candidate, but I'm not a political
scientist or a mathematician.  

Below, first I present five scenarios relating
to Barack Obama versus John McCain in the
general election.  Second, I present five
scenarios relating to Hillary Clinton versus
McCain in the general election.  

For each scenario, the final SUM number
indicates the percentage of the voters who are
projected for Obama or Clinton, respectively.
Of course, if the SUM is less than 50%, the
candidate loses to McCain in the scenario.  On
the other hand, if the SUM is greater than 50%,
the candidate beats McCain in the scenario.  

CONCLUSION from the results below:  
Clinton beats McCain in 5 out of 5 scenarios.  
Obama beats McCain in 2 out of 5 scenarios.  

FIRST, here are five voting scenarios for Barack
Obama in the general election against John
McCain.  The scenarios start off bad and get
better.  Since percentages in the overall
population are used, these scenarios include
Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.  For
all the Barack Obama scenarios, I assume that
Obama receives 95% of the African-American vote.

Scenario No. 1B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
16,2 %..not college grads. [Assume: 30%X53.9%]
4.3 %  Everbody Else {Assume: 45%X9.6%}
45.9 % SUM (1B)

Scenario No. 2B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 45%X9.6%]
48.6 % SUM (2B)

Scenario No. 3B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
13.9 %..college graduates [Assume 60% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 45%X9.6%]
49.8 % SUM (3B)

Scenario No. 4B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
13.9 %..college graduates [Assume 60% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
50.3 % SUM (4B)

Scenario No. 5B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
15.0 %..college graduates [Assume 65% X 23.1%]
21.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 40%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
54.1 % SUM (5B)

SECOND, here are some voting scenarios for
Hillary Clinton in the general election against
John McCain.  These scenarios start off bad and
get better.  Since percentages in the overall
population are used, they include Democrats,
Republicans, and Independents.  For all Hillary
Clinton scenarios, I assume that Clinton
receives 33% of the African-American vote.  

Scenario No. 1H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
11.6 %..college graduates [Assume 50% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
50.4 % SUM (1H)

Scenario No. 2H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
51.5 % SUM (2H)

Scenario No. 3H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
5.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 55%X9.6%]
52.0 % SUM (3H)

Scenario No. 4H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
32.3 %..not college grads. [Assume: 60%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
54.2 % SUM (4H)

Scenario No. 5H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
32.3 %..not college grads. [Assume: 60%X53.9%]
5.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 55%X9.6%]
54.7 % SUM (5H)

CONCLUSION (repeated from above):  
Clinton beats McCain in 5 out of 5 scenarios.  
Obama beats McCain in 2 out of 5 scenarios.

Note to folks who I invited back to chat this weekend. Will be back in either tonight or tomorrow night. Looking forward to "reading" you! 12 dogs.

__________

Now the diary entry for today.
__________

I know that this is a website for folks who are very much into politics. You may wonder, "What the heck?!?!" When you read this diary entry. The voters of this world come from all different views. Some come from politics from the "cafe society" of a university town. Some come from the kitchens of middle of nowhere in Alabama. There is a real opportunity to learn from both places. We all dine at the table of life. Some with haute cuisine some with paper bag lunches. We are all Americans.

Everyone welcome.

This diary is different. It comes from the perspective of what I know. Where I grew up. I keep talking about the South here. I do it because of my own personal experiences. I'll speak in my southern voice. The voice I have heard and the voice I know.

Not pretenting to be someone else. LOL. Kind of the opposite.

Welcome.

--------------------------------------

Hey. I would like to thank everyone who has commented on my blog. Thank you for the discussion. Ya'll were having such a good one just thought it best to leave you to it. I learn more that way. When I listen and ask questions. Thank you again. 12 dogs.

Hello. We have a question at my house. It's about the poll watchers map on either side of the MyDD webpage. You've seen them. They are on the upper right and left hand corners of this webpage. We've just started watching these little maps and well-

according to them the matchup between Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain and Sen. Clinton and Sen. McCain is listed. These numbers are for the electorial college.

Uhmm. We were just wondering where these numbers came from and how accurate they are.

Because right now. They show the following:

In a  Sen. Obama v. Sen. McCain matchup it shows:

McCain wins by 3 electorial votes.
Sen. Obama:  265   and  Sen. McCain:  273

In a  Sen. Clinton v. Sen. McCain matchup it shows:

Clinton wins by 6 electorial votes.
Sen. Clinton:  276  and  Sen. McCain:  262

Total number electorial votes needed to win:  270

I read this stuff and I just wondered, the Obama and Clinton camps each say they will be the nominee and winner of the general election. Then I just started looking at these little maps on MyDD and wondering how this figures in.

Isn't it still the electorial college that determines who wins the presidency?

I assume these are accurate numbers otherwise MyDD wouldn't run them on this site.

What do you think about what these numbers are showing?