According to information in New York Times story today, Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean has to be a major-league incompetent to have messed up the organization of the August Convention to this extent:

With the Denver convention less than two months away, problems range from the serious -- upwardly spiraling costs on key contracts still being negotiated -- to the mundane, like the reluctance of local caterers to participate because of stringent rules on what delegates will be eating, down to the color of the food. At last count, plans to renovate the inside of the Pepsi Center for the Democrats are $6 million over budget, which may force convention planners to scale back on their original design or increase their fund-raising goals.

The convention is being organized by the Democratic National Committee, which is run by Howard Dean, with his chief of staff, the Rev. Leah D. Daughtry, leading the effort. Only in the last month has the Obama campaign been able to take over management of the convention planning with the candidate claiming the nomination, and his aides are increasingly frustrated, as the event nears, at organizers who they believe spent too freely, planned too slowly and underestimated actual costs.

( . . . )

And then there is the food: A 28-page contract requested by Denver organizers that caterers provide food in "at least three of the following five colors: red, green, yellow, blue/purple and white." Garnishes could not be counted toward the colors. No fried foods would be allowed. Organic and locally grown foods were mandated, and each plate had to be 50 percent fruits and vegetables. As a result, caterers are shying away.  New York Times

Barack Obama is already taking over some essential decisions, like deciding to give his acceptance speech at an arena three times the size of the one chosen by the DNC.  In similar situations, I haven't had the balls to just sideline everyone who's contributing to the chaos and start from scratch.  But, that's what Barack Obama needs to do, and he needs to do it quickly.  

He's not responsible for the chaos that reigned before he won the nomination, but everyone will hold him responsible for the Convention itself.  Like a general taking over a battlefield strategy, Obama needs to arrive, put his people in the essential roles, and announce a plan that can win the battle.  He has to do so in a way that leaves incompetent and impractical people feeling special about the contribution they've made.

It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

Now that Michigan, Iowa, and New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon seem to trending blue, we appear to be heading toward a likely 264 electoral votes (270 needed).

So the question is this: which "red" states does Obama have a shot at winning?

Yes, there are many possibilities, but let's be super-realistic.

We have 3 good shots at it: OH, CO, and VA, maybe 4 if you include Indiana.  Florida and Nevada are also possibilities, but Obama's been polling behind there overall.

Obama's best shot seems to be CO (9EV) or Ohio (20EV).  He's currently ahead in both states, but only by a small margin.  He's tied in IN and VA.

More great news on the polling front--it appears our 50 state strategy is working. A new poll out today from Rasmussen Reports details this strikingly--for the first time in a long time, we will have a Presidential canidate who is competititve in the Deep South. We've heard about Georgia already, but now Mississippi is well within range for Senator Obama, with news out from the first post-primary poll of the state:

(after the flap)

Quinnipiac University, The Washington Post and The Wall St. Journal have released their new "Battleground State" polls and, well, let's just say they might need to redefine their terms. Certainly by 2004 standards, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota would be classic battleground states. Colorado went for Bush 52-47, Michigan went for Kerry 51-48, Minnesota went for Kerry 51-48 and Wisconsin barely went for Kerry 50-49.

We're not in 2004 anymore.

Colorado (1351 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.7%)

Obama 49
McCain 44

Michigan (1411 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.6%)

Obama 48
McCain 42

Minnesota (1572 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)

Obama 54
McCain 37

Wisconsin (1537 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)

Obama 52
McCain 39

Obama is overperforming Kerry in Colorado by 10%, in Michigan by 3%, in Minnesota by 14% and in Wisconsin by 12%. The keys: Obama wins independents in every single state (by double digits in three of them) and holds onto 2004 Kerry voters much better than McCain holds onto Bush voters.

If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, the least Obama will do...should do...this year is hold onto Kerry states. If pollsters want to test true battlegrounds in 08, they'd be well-advised to put polls into the field in states that went for Bush in 04 such as Virginia and Ohio, certainly moreso than some of the tight Kerry states such as Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Although the Bush Administration rarely amazes me with their harmful environmental policies and selective and biased approach to scientific inquiry, this one, ironically, really took my breath away:

This morning, the New York Times reported that the EPA, responding to a Supreme Court ruling to determine the extent to which greenhouse gas poses a threat to the health and safety of people and the environment, sent a full report to the White House, via email, six months ago. The email, that included a conclusion with evidence surrounding the effects of greenhouse gasses, was never opened!

Though the Senate fundraising efforts on this site are focused on the Road to 60 ActBlue list, which includes the races that will take the Democrats right up to the threshold of a 60-vote filibuster-proof supermajority in the chamber (yes, this is a plug for the list -- go make a contribution today, even of $5, $10 or $25), that doesn't mean we won't be paying attention to all of the other races.

In Colorado, for instance, nonpartisan polling released last week showed Democratic Congressman Mark Udall leading former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer by a 9-point margin. Today the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released its own polling on the race that found the exact same spread:

After months of defending his links to big oil companies and battling scandals over ties to jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff and convicted felon Bill Orr, Colorado Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaffer has fallen nine points behind Democratic Congressman Mark Udall, according to a new poll taken for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.  Udall leads Schaffer 46% to 37% in the new poll, which was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research group.  

[...]

The poll also shows Udall with more intense support than Schaffer, with 57% of his voters saying they strongly support him, as opposed to only 43% of Schaffer voters who strongly back him.  Sixteen percent of respondents to the poll said the country was headed in the right direction, as opposed to 72 percent who said it was moving on the wrong track.  The poll of 807 likely voters was taken June 15 to 17 and has a 3.5% margin of error.

There appears to be quite a bit of movement in this race as of late -- and none of it looks good for Schaffer. Take a gander, for example, at the trend found over at Pollster.com. According to the site's estimate, Udall now leads Schaffer by a 47.6 percent to 39.1 percent margin. Only a few months ago the two were at near parity in the state; the trend since the spring, however, has shown Udall steadily climbing while Schaffer steadily descends. The fact that this race is only the Democrats' fourth best pick-up opportunity in the Senate at this juncture speaks volumes about the state of the race -- and the Democrats' real shot at winning big enough to get a sufficiently sizable majority in the chamber to get a whole lot done in the 111th Congress.