Glen Brower, Democratic candidate for Wisconsin State Assembly in the 21st Assembly district has gained enough valid signatures to appear on the fall ballot to take on entrenched Republican Mark Honadel.

Glen has raised over $20,000 in just a few short weeks, he has been endorsed by SEIU and Progressive Majority Wisconsin, and he has gained the support of Rep. Jon Richards (D-Milwaukee)

http://glenbrower.com/contribute.html

Donate to Glen today and help bring real change to the South Shore!

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July. Jacob saw his first real fireworks display and loved it at first. We were watching from the 12th floor of a building right on the waterfront, so it was spectacular. Unfortunately, he was coming down with a fever and by the end was pretty unhappy. He is fine again now.

This was a big week, both locally where my friend qualified for the ballot for NYC's Sept. 9th primary election, and nationally where Obama's surge continued even as the Democrats once again showed less spine than we would like them to. More below.

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released a couple of polls worth mentioning. First up is their Wisconsin poll in which Rasmussen finally catches up to the rest of the world: Obama's up by double digits.

Note that the Pollster trend estimate is pre-this Rasmussen poll. Also, when leaners are added, Obama's lead drops to 10 points.

A few weeks ago, I mocked Quinnipiac for including Wisconsin in its "Battleground State" polls. Today it's Larry Sabato who needs scolding. In Sabato's first look at the 2008 electoral map, he breaks states down pretty much as one would expect but then drops this doozy:

Toss-Ups -- The Real Deal

CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI (99 electoral votes)

Uh? And this from his analysis:

Wisconsin is traditionally close, as it was in both 2000 and 2004. Obama swept the Democratic primary here, though, and he has to be rated at least a slight favorite; some early polls have Obama well ahead.

I'm not sure what makes Sabato so convinced Obama's lead is so tenuous. As you can see from the Pollster chart, the trend is unambiguous and methinks Sabato is underestimating the adjacent to Illinois factor.

Rasmussen's North Dakota poll has Obama and McCain tied up at 43% apiece (47%-46% McCain with leaners), which tracks almost exactly with the 538.com average (McCan 43%-42%.)

But despite this virtual tie in North Dakota, Sabato decides in McCain's favor here as well, although this categorization at least makes some sense.

Likely -- An Upset is Possible but Improbable

McCAIN - AK, GA, MS, MT, ND (30 electoral votes)

Nate concurs:

One caution: this poll was taken in the immediate aftermath of an Obama visit to North Dakota, which garnered him some very favorable local press coverage. We still have each of these states tipping to McCain at the end -- but not by such a margin that he can blow them off without risking their electoral votes.

It should not be forgotten that George Bush won North Dakota by 27% in 2004 but Obama is doing something that John Kerry never did: show up, which, Obama likes to say, is 90% of winning. Obama may not ultimately win the state but he's sure going to make McCain spend there.

It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

Quinnipiac University, The Washington Post and The Wall St. Journal have released their new "Battleground State" polls and, well, let's just say they might need to redefine their terms. Certainly by 2004 standards, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota would be classic battleground states. Colorado went for Bush 52-47, Michigan went for Kerry 51-48, Minnesota went for Kerry 51-48 and Wisconsin barely went for Kerry 50-49.

We're not in 2004 anymore.

Colorado (1351 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.7%)

Obama 49
McCain 44

Michigan (1411 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.6%)

Obama 48
McCain 42

Minnesota (1572 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)

Obama 54
McCain 37

Wisconsin (1537 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)

Obama 52
McCain 39

Obama is overperforming Kerry in Colorado by 10%, in Michigan by 3%, in Minnesota by 14% and in Wisconsin by 12%. The keys: Obama wins independents in every single state (by double digits in three of them) and holds onto 2004 Kerry voters much better than McCain holds onto Bush voters.

If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, the least Obama will do...should do...this year is hold onto Kerry states. If pollsters want to test true battlegrounds in 08, they'd be well-advised to put polls into the field in states that went for Bush in 04 such as Virginia and Ohio, certainly moreso than some of the tight Kerry states such as Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Democrat Glen Brower is running strong and spirited campaign for State Assembly in the 21st district, representing South Milwaukee and Oak Creek.

He understands the problems we all face, from rising property taxes, rising gas prices, and ever more expensive health insurance, Glen knows that more of the same just won't do. We need honest and responsible leadership to address the problems that can no longer be ignored.

http://www.actblue.com/contribute/entity /20007

We are just three seats away taking back our State Assembly, and making sure that the issues we all care about are truly addressed.

The floods in the Midwest have continued and I include some information where I can in the Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin sections. Best of luck to all readers in the hard hit areas.

This week I return to an issue I discussed before: Republican cronies litterally killing our troops with no government oversight. This week Democratic Sentor Bob Casey is demanding an investigation of the electrocutions due to bad wiring that have been plaguing our military bases managed by a Hallibruton subsidiary. More below.