In the wee hours of Wednesday morning, as progressive blogosphere favorite Ciro Rodriguez went down to defeat against Henry Cuellar (DINO-TX-28), Chris Bowers at liberal supersite MyDD suddenly recognized a fairly important feature of the Texas Democratic primaries:
While there have been a number of postmortems of yesterday's election in TX-28, I want to offer one more look at what happened because I think understanding past netroots efforts and how we judge success will help us refine our game for the big one: whoopin' Joe Lieberman.
One of the problems with the effort in Texas is that the dynamic advanced so that people were only judging success based upon the election results. If Ciro Rodriguez won, or forced Cuellar into a runoff, then we won. That didn't happen, so we lost.
With the apparent loss of Rodriguez to Cuellar, some are celebrating the netroots' major assist to Ciro and optimistically touting this as an honorable defeat in TX-28 that will lead to future victory there and elsewhere.
Others are disappointed, wondering what went wrong, and in a few cases pointing fingers at those who, they feel, failed to deliver despite intense support from Democrats all over the nation.
As someone who has been intensely involved with election campaigns on a local level, I have a strong interest in the mechanics of politics. This experience leads me to be skeptical of those trying to find a silver lining in this loss, while also discounting criticism that is not aimed at identifying specific problems -- and at building commitment to solving them in the future.
I'm not trying to armchair quarterback here, but rather to learn from a defeat. I've spent many, many hours preparing poll watchers and inspectors, building GOTV databases, designing mailers, courting candidates, defining campaign messages, poring over election law, helping to prepare challenges and lawsuits, writing press releases, going door-to-door, registering voters, and other nitty-gritty of local elections. I say this not to brag, but just to convey that for underdogs to win requires a virtually endless commitment to nailing down every detail.
When campaigns leave things to chance, or just cross their fingers, or say, "well, we did what we could," those candidates lose. People like Karl Rove are not geniuses; rather, they just work much harder on every detail of campaigns, over a long period of time, and don't accept mediocre results.
With all that said, here are some constructive questions that occur to me, strictly as an outside observer, that might be worth asking the Ciro campaign, and keeping in mind in future contests in that district and around the country. Those questions appear after the jump...
TX-28 Postmortem, Part II: Qualitative and Strategy
byChris Bowers, Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 12:04:02 PM EST
Well, it looks like our first primary challenge against an incumbent Democrat didn't work out. To my knowledge, there haven't been any official concession yet, but no matter what happens, I would like to point out that Republicans still haven't won anything new on the electoral front since 2004. While we it looks like we were unable to defeat a Democrat who sucked up to Bush, over the past year we still have a pretty good streak going of defeating Republicans who suck up to Bush. This is not even to mention that Republicans are still too gutless to even try to run someone in this majority-Latino district. I'd like to se how close they would come to defeating Henry Cuellar.
There is no way to prove this, but I still bet that if this was a closed primary and Republicans and Independents had been unable to vote, we would have at least forced a run-off, if not won outright. The margin was so close, I can easily imagine a few thousand registered Republicans and Republican-leaning indepdents wanting to vote for Cuellar because of his connections to Bush. The Texas primary system would have allowed them to do so. Update: Check out the NCDem in the comments for a more accurate description of the Texas primary system.
Also, considering the wildly different vote totals for each candidate in different counties, it seems fairly safe to assume that "voting for the home-boy" was probably the number one voter issue in this campaign. It wasn't the only issue, but it was probably the biggest issue. As one pro-Ciro commenter on the ground noted yesterday:
Zapata County is made up of good, hard working, blue collar folks. They voted overwhelmingly for Ciro, before Laredo was put into the mix by DeLay. They voted for Ann Richards by far, over Bush. They voted overwhelmingly for Kerry 2 years ago. (...) They're voting for Cuellar besause they are part of Laredo's orbit. They are simply voting for the home boy. They are nor conservatives -- socially or otherwise. They're poor folk, mostly Mexican-Americans trying to get by. They are progressive-liberals, and good Democrats.
We shouldn't get too mad at Cuellar's voters. Most of them are with us a lot more often than Cuellar himself is.
Further, as Steve Gillard pointed out over an email tonight, it is important to remember that the netroots doesn't actually run campaigns--we just have the ability to offer resources that can give candidates the chance to win. The rest, ultimately, is up to the candidate, the campaign, and the voters. I'm not saying this to throw Ciro under the bus, but rather so that we all get a little more perspective on the role we play online. We are not an alternative party apparatus unto ourselves.
As for tactics, it seems to me that we should have moved into this race earlier--probably as early as November. There was a large gap to overcome in this district, and six weeks proved to not be enough time. We even won the voting on Election Day voting, but we lost because of the early voting. Had we spent more time on this campaign, we could have made it closer earlier, and we could have kicked up a lot more media. As Matt Singer noted over email:
Campaigns also need these resources earlier. When it ends up coming down to a good ground effort, it just can't spring up overnight. And mail/TV ads need to be planned in advance, too.
True dat. In the future, we need to develop a target list for primaries much further in advance. Too often we jump on board campaigns when it is already too late, as I complained about in my Edjamacation post. We have to start moving in earlier.
Of course, even had we come in earlier, defeating federally elected incumbents is a difficult game. Even on the Republican side, for all of their vaunted ability to run primary challenges against their sitting incumbents, the only real win they have against a federally elected incumbent is Sununu over Smith in New Hampshire in 2002. We may be 0 for 1, but they are 1 for 100. Primary challenges are almost always failures at the ballot box.
However, even in electoral defeat the Republican base has often succeeded in forcing some incumbents to start toeing the conservative line. If Cuellar becomes a more reliable vote as a result of this primary, then we will have succeeded anyway. If Cuellar makes fewer appearances with Bush, then we will have succeeded anyway. We won't know if that has happened right away, but we do know that even if things don't change, we can always run another primary challenge against Cuellar in 2008. Netroots electoral wins may seem few and far between (Chandler, Obama, Herseth, Dean for DNC), but the only way we are going to get more of them is if we keep trying.
Hope that is enough qualifiers for you. Make sure you read Ciro's statement to the netroots. I know you are disappointed, but you helped turn what would have been a blowout election that no one noticed into a real fight. Never give up hope. It's on to CA-50.
Update: I just received the following statement from Ciro:
“Last night we didn’t receive the outcome we had hoped for. The end result was true to the intentions of Tom Delay when he carved out this district for his friend — geographic rivalries won out over a true discussion of the issues for working families.
I congratulate Mr. Cuellar on his victory, however, and I hold no bitterness or ill will.
I do hope, however, that he takes seriously the message sent by over 47% of the voters — and by a community of progressive donors from across the country — that a Democratic congressman’s first responsibility is to stand up for the needs of seniors, of children and of working families.
Especially in South and Central Texas, where so many mothers and fathers have sacrificed their whole lives for their children, and so many veterans have answered the call of their country, we need a Democratic congressman to put his personal political ambitions aside and take a stand for Social Security, for quality, public schools, and for affordable health care for all.
The driving force behind our campaign was a group of volunteers who took such a stand — students, retirees, and working people from all parts of the District. For their commitment and dedication, Carolina and I will be forever grateful.
And I believe I speak for all our supporters and campaign team when I say that we were profoundly touched by the thousands of regular working families from throughout the country who helped fund our effort with their checks of $5, $10, and $20. They looked beyond geographic and cultural differences and sent a message that we are all Americans and that we must stand and act together to reclaim our government.
As educators, that inspiration will forever stay with Carolina and I as we take the next step in our lifelong commitment to public service.”
Thank you Ciro. And I hope that Cuellar takes this message seriously too.
"As far as I am concerned we are in a run-off. We will be picking up our signs from the polls and re-using them in thirty days. Until we know exactly what happened today in Webb County, this race is not over.
"I wouldn't be here if I hadn't gotten the support of the online community. It's been overwhelming to see how people can make a difference, and make things happen by coming together, even if it an hour of blockwalking, a few phone calls or $20 and $40 dollars at a time. We must have the final word in who our leadership will be, not the special interests, and we must keep up this fight. I want to think the thousands who have given their time and resources to push this campaign forward.
"Thank you from the bottom of my heart for each and every kind word, dollar bill and one cent."
I have a postmortem already written, but I ain't posting it yet.
Update 2 (Chris): I am looking at a new line of analysis based on turnout that could change the situation, as long as the "rumor" about Webb County actually having finished its reporting is true. Here are the turnouts so far relative to 2004 in each county (except LaSalle and Zapata, which haven't finished reporting yet either).
Atascosa: 80.8% (done)
Bexar: 104.3% (99% done)
Comal: 26.3% (done)
Frio: 69.2% (done)
Guadalupe: 74.7% (done)
Hays: 131.3% (done)
McMullen: 305.1% (done--wtf?--hey went from 118 voters to 360)
Webb: 61.3% (done?)
Wilson: 75.4% (done)
As you can see, if Webb is done reporting, then obviously we are going to face a run-off as a result of low turnout in Cuellar's home base. As I said earlier in the night, even if Cuelar improves everywhere, he can still be beat by turnout. However, I don't think that Webb is done reporting. I think they still have around 35% of their vote to report (since early voting accoutned for around 65%). That means another 5K votes or so, and a Cuellar victory with around 52-53% of the vote (facotring in LaSalle and Zapata as well, which also lean Cuellar, but not by as much as Webb).
As you can see, Ciro did a good job with turnout in his home base of Bexar and Hays. However, Cuellar's 3-9% improvements in every conty except Hays and Bexar coudl very well be a sufficient counter. That is, unless Webb county really is done reporting (and if it is, then Cuellar ran theworst GOTV ever).
byChris Bowers, Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 01:53:18 PM EST
Polls close at 8pm eastern. Use the comments in thread to make predictions on the results. Remember that Morales is in the race too, and should pull at least 5%.
Tonight, you will be able to follow returns live here on MyDD. I have constructed an excel spreadsheet that will allow me to estimate overall results based on results and turnout in specific counties. With this tool, I should be able to produce the best up to date estimates of the overall picture that you can find.
The common wisdom is that in order to overturn the results of the last cycle (when he lost by 58 votes), Ciro Rodriguez will have to do a better job of turning out the vote in his home base of Bexar County (San Antonio), and hope that the opposite happens in Webb County (Laredo), the home of closet Republican Henry Cuellar. Well, early voting is over in the primaries, and the totals for both counties are in.
Early voting is a good indicator of the total turn out because normally 65% of the voters in the Democratic primaries cast their vote early. In Webb County, the early vote totals were 2.5% below the early votes cast in the last cycle. The opposite is true in Bexar County, where there is an early vote increase of 7.3% from those cast in 2004. Laredo's decrease is especially noteworthy because its booming population growth allowed for a 4% increase in the number of registered voters for this election, versus the numbers registered in March of 2004.
My analysis is that there will be a decrease in the overall number of voters in Laredo in this cycle, from those that voted in 2004, because a stirring race for county sheriff in 2004 tweaked the turn out in the last cycle. The decrease in early voters in Laredo this cycle, despite a significant increase in registered voters, tends to prove my hypothesis.
Another point worthy of discussion is based on the fact that the 28th CD takes in only a part of Bexar and Webb Counties. This cycle, a race pulling out many voters in Webb County is for an open county commissioner's seat, contested by 6 candidates. Unfortunately for the sell-out Cuellar, this commissioner's district is wholly outside the 28th CD. On the other hand, the race turning out the most voters in Bexar County is for a highly-contested state senate seat between Madla and Uresti (both San Antonio home-boys), in a state senatorial district which overlaps the 28th CD in Bexar County. Accordingly, in my estimation the gap between the 2.5% decrease in early votes in Webb County versus the 7.3% increase in Bexar County, is actually greater when you consider only the voters eligible to vote in the 28th CD race (those totals are not available).
That is about all of the prep work I can give you for now. I suppose one of the great ironies of my writing for MyDD is that I actually hate election nights. Even though this is what most of our writing builds up to, and even though our traffic goes through the roof, usually I find it too stressful and too disappointing for words. I am already growing pretty nervous about tonight. The netroots, the LCV, and the AFL-CIO have a lot on the line. Not to mention that is just really important that we get Cuellar out of this seat. Tonight is a big night.
byChris Bowers, Wed Mar 01, 2006 at 06:12:10 PM EST
You probably have already seen the poll on TX-28 over at Dailykos today that showed Rodriguez within five points of Cuellar. When I saw the poll, I remember being a little dubious about Morales coming in at 8%. However, just a couple of hours later I received information from someone working on the campaign down there that this is indeed very likely, and that Morales will almost certainly receive at least 5%. This person is working on the direct voter contact efforts down there, which are quite extensive, so I believe that s/he is an authoritative source on the matter.
Given that info, combined with the poll and the fact that the 2004 matchup between Cuellar and Rodriguez was decided by less than 100 votes (Rodriguez actually led before the recount began), I now believe that it is very likely that neither Cuellar nor Rodriguez will receive the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff.
A runoff bodes very well for our chances. If Cuellar can't make 50% then the mood of the district is clearly in favor of dumping him. This isn't even to mention that the trends clearly seem to be against Cuellar at this point in time.
Of course, a runoff will also mean that Ciro will need enough resources to continue to fight after March 7th. So continue donating and volunteering.
