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It's a Tie! (Popular Vote v. Pledged Delegates)

Congratulations to both Democratic frontrunners!

Hillary Clinton has won the popular vote by over 300,000 votes.  Barack Obama has won 130 more pledged delegates.

Here are the final totals:

POPULAR VOTE  (all primaries and caucuses)
Hillary Clinton: 17,785,009
Barack Obama: 17,479,990

PLEDGED DELEGATES
Barack Obama: 1766.5
Hillary Clinton: 1639.5

Currently, 2118 delegates are needed to win the nomination, according to the DNC.  A successful appeal of the RBC's recent decisions on Florida and Michigan would change that threshold to 2210, but that's less relevant now because the pledged delegate allocations are fairly final (pending completion of state conventions) and, again, neither Clinton nor Obama will have enough pledged delegates to reach either 2118 or 2210.

Since we got a lecture from party  member and SuperD Donna Brazile Saturday at the RBC meeting on the importance of her momma's lesson about following the rules, let's review the DNC's rules for winning the nomination.

It's not complex.  In a nutshell:    If a nominee does not win a sufficient number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination, the automatic (or "super") delegates must vote to determine who the nominee will be.  The automatic delegates, who are elected and unelected party officials, can use any criteria they each find appropriate when voting, but the original intent and purpose of the super delegate system was to ensure that the party nominate the most electable candidate for the general-election battle.

Most importantly:  The automatic delegates cast their votes at the Democratic National Convention along with the pledged delegates.  This year the convention will be on August 25-28 in Denver.  It will certainly be an historic event as presidential conventions go because of the extraordinary task at hand for the automatic delegates.  Their votes, by the way, will be cast by private ballot.

That's the status of the Democratic Presidential nomination process.

Now, Barack Obama can "declare himself the nominee" (FOX News characterization last night), he can throw all the big parties and make all the pretty speeches in as many hope-change-unity rallies he wants.  He can campaign with vigor against John McCain.  (And so can Hillary.)  The Clinton-hating party clique can "proclaim" that Obama is the nominee; the mainstream media can continue to ignore reality...None of this is surprising, and none of it matters...

Because there will not be a nominee until August.  There will not be -- there cannot be -- any nominee until August.   And even the "presumptive nominee" status is a stretch because normally that claim is made by a candidate who has reached the required number of PLEDGED delegates (as John McCain did).

And anyone who thinks that Hillary Clinton supporters don't understand all of this...is delusional and seriously underestimates the loyalty and passion of her quiet yet determined army  (although some of us aren't that quiet).

We are informed and engaged constituents committed to a brilliant and inspiring leader.  We are NOT going to fold our tents and hop on board Obama's train just cause that's what we are told to do by people who, frankly, are experts at losing elections.  NO.  We have collectively determined that we'd actually prefer that the Democrats win the Presidency this year.  No more McGoverns, Carters, Kerrys, Gores, Harts, Deans....Nothing personal, guys, but your track record stinks.

In the 2000 Presidential Election, Al Gore won about 550,000 more votes than George Bush.  Given the consequences of that election fraud, I thought it would be a cold day in h**l before Democrats would let anyone steal the election from another Democrat...But then again, these are the General Election losers running our party so...

So, while Obama is zipping around the country and world celebrating "victory," let the rest of us remain sober and focused in respect of these basic and indisputable FACTS:

1. Hillary Clinton has now officially won more votes than any person to seek the presidential nomination of EITHER political party in history, and her candidacy accurately represents the will of the people who voted in the Democratic primaries and caucuses.

2. Hillary Clinton won ALL of the major states except Illinois.

3. Hillary Clinton finished the primary season with momentum, out-performing expectations in several races such as, most recently, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, and South Dakota (see Obama's predictions spreadsheet); Obama, in contrast, is wheezing across the finish line with a downward trajectory that bodes poorly for the general election.

4. Hillary Clinton assembled a coalition of loyal voters that can guarantee victory against McCain, including white women, hispanics, catholics, jews, and lunch-bucket workers.

5. Barack Obama is still a relative unknown, remains unvetted by the media, and is teetering on the brink of being clobbered by the GOP, RNC, 527 Oppo Teams due to his treasure chest of bizarre skeletons.

In light of these cold, hard facts, Hillary Clinton bloggers and supporters will continue doing what we've been doing:  Passionately making the case that Hillary Clinton will be the best President, that she has a superior chance of beating John McCain. It's do-or-die for us, and for the country. And we have every intention -- indeed a duty -- to carry that message all the way to Denver.

Note:  popular vote totals from ABC News and pledged delegate totals from Real Clear Politics.

Cross posted at TexasDarlin
TexasDarlin, all rights reserved

Fox News: Clinton Upsets Obama in South Dakota

Fox News is projecting New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as the winner of the South Dakota Democratic primary.

Barack Obama was widely expected to sweep the final two contests in the Democratic nominating season.

More news as it develops.

AP Wrong. Hillary Not Conceding

And no doubt why the story didn't try to claim Hillary Clinton said that, only the casual referenced "officials".  Like all the other claims others have made during this entire primary.

Supers Should Let States Push Obama Over the Top - they should endorse Before Tues

Super delegates should weigh in BEFORE Tuesday's primary in Montana and South Dakota.

The polls are showing Barack Obama currently leading in those two states; but even if he were to tie with Hillary, he would only get around 15 delegates total.  This means he needs at least 33 super delegates to put him over the top.

HRC Endorsement: 22 S. Dakota Native American Leaders

The HRC Campaign has just announced the endorsements of 22 Native American Leaders from the great state of South Dakota. These endorsements could potentially help HRC in the Native American sections of the state and the bring out the vote.

Hillary does have a comprehensive Native American Agenda for South Dakota, something the great "CHANGE" campaign is lacking. Her plan includes an outreach for unemployement to healthcare to those of the Native American Community.

Here is the link for the full endorsement: http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/relea se/view/?id=7870

Bring on the comments of "Who Cares?" and "Big Deal?" Just think about what your commenting on...

Argus Leader Endorses Hillary

Congratulations, Hillary!

South Dakota's largest newspaper, the Argus Leader, went on record today in support of Hillary Rodham Clinton for President.

Editorial: Clinton is top candidate for Dems

Excerpts from the endorsement:

(Clinton's) resilience and determination never should be questioned. She has met or overcome every challenge or roadblock in her way, and there have been many. Her determination to carry the nomination process through to its real conclusion has perhaps earned her a grudging respect from those who would never support her.

Obama is justifiably credited as a powerful speaker, but Clinton holds her own easily. As those who have attended her South Dakota rallies can attest, she is quick on her feet and energetic. She frames her ideas clearly in speeches and answers questions with genuine directness.

Clinton is the strongest Democratic candidate for South Dakota.

Her mastery of complex policy detail is broad and deep, and her experience as a senator and former first lady matches that.

Clinton's energy policy is forward thinking and wise. She advocates a broad federal research initiative to help solve our looming oil crisis. It's a plan that would join university researchers, private industry and individual inventors behind a common goal...Is ethanol part of the answer? Clinton believes it is but not necessarily corn ethanol...That is not precisely the answer South Dakota wants to hear. Corn-based ethanol has been a boon for farmers here. But the simple fact is that she probably is correct...

Clinton has demonstrated a real commitment to Native American issues and will have visited several South Dakota reservations before the race is over. Clinton is precisely correct when she says that people outside the region have a poor understanding of the troubling trends on our reservations...

Her truly universal health care plan would be welcomed by thousands of South Dakotans. Even on reservations, where health care is nominally universal already, such a plan would be welcome. The federal government would never be allowed to subject everyday Americans to the kind of care Native Americans living on reservations routinely receive.

(emphasis added)

The endorsement is especially gratifying to Clinton supporters given the extreme overreaction to a reference she made to RFK in the Argus Leader interview -- an incident which was shamefully exploited by Barack Obama's campaign.

And, the Argus Leader endorsement is gratifying in light of furious efforts by party elites to end the nomination process before the convention, even though neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates by then.

Thank you, Argus Leader, for confirming what 18 million people already know:  Hillary Clinton is the best Democrat to be President!



Cross posted at TexasDarlin

Hillary CAN Win If She Doesn't Quit-Please Don't Quit

Of course, we know why Camp Obama and the media keep trying to call an end for the campaign of the Democratic nomination.  Because as Hillary continues to campaign, she is winning the support of not just the Democrats, but more independents and Repbublicans, that shows her the best chance to win in the General Election.

May. 20, 2008 10:15 PM
COMMENTARY
Memo to Hillary Clinton: Please don't quit
By LEWIS W. DIUGUID
The Kansas City Star

Which also means, as long as she keeps receiving more support and more votes, Hillary can win the nomination.  And of course, that is possible, because the other candidate is not winning or securing the votes he needed to win.  That wasn't on Camp Obama's wishlist.  So, they have resorted to every other means possible to push for that outcome.  Forgetting apparently, Hillary is not a quitter.

Final Three Primaries: an Overview

On the heels of the mason dixon poll showing Obama up 17 points in Montana, one might not consider that she has any chance in the upcoming primaries. However, since the campaign of the ESTEEMED senator from Illinois is turing to GE mode a bit prematurely, Senator Clinton may have an opening in the next couple primaries. A few thoughts:
           Puerto Rico: On paper this is a Clinton rout but Obama's considerable cash advantage may allow him to somewhat negate a possible Clinton landslide in the delegate count but not enough to allay a victory in the popular vote, the metric which her campaign is now focused on.

            Montana: Obama will win this independent minded state fairly easily but not by a large enough margin to merit a significant delegate split. This is one state, though, where the Clinton name may still be strong enough (in certain areas) to swing a considerable number of votes, though not on the scale of Arkansas or West Virginia.

            South Dakota: This is the one state that Clinton could potentially pull a come from behind victory in. Though this is one of the few primaries that Bill Clinton lost in 92
(to Bob Kerrey no less), the large number of undecideds that has manifested itself in the few polls taken in this state suggests that Clinton has the potential to score a popular vote victory, albeit a narrow one in this state. If she could pull this off, it would need to be considered a remarkable feat, considering that Daschle, JOhnson, and Herseth-Sandlin are backing Obama.

that is just my two cents worth but please share your opinions and comments regarding this analysis below. BTW, if you feel that I am an idiot, f****r, retard, or troll, there is no need to post your sentiments in the comments section because that would violate the standards of this blog. Thanks.



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