We came way too close to a President Rudy Giuliani.  I'm not saying he was ever really the most likely winner, but the fact that it was ever even plausible scares the hell out of me.

Anybody else really want to consider how amazingly lucky we are here?

Bloggers love to write about the media. And, as non-corporate, truly independent media outlets, blogs have the moral authority to effectively point out and criticize media bias, media consolidation, and the old media business model.

Perhaps all that criticism is actually having an effect.

It's hard not to see the decline of the old media in today's society. As everyone knows, circulation and audience numbers have been declining for years as more and more people move online:

Across the industry, newspaper ad revenue -- print and online, combined -- fell almost 8 percent last year, the second-worst decline in more than half a century, according to the Newspaper Association of America. The Times Company's ad revenue dropped 4.7 percent last year, when adjusted for a change in the length of its fiscal year.

Over the last year, classified ads continued a decade-long flight to the Web, and display ads for real estate and cars fell sharply as those industries contracted.

Now, some may argue that just because people are getting their news and information online doesn't mean the old media is losing eyeballs yet. And that's probably true; even though more people get news and information online these days, that news and information usually comes from the online outlets of the old media - sites like nytimes.com or cnn.com.

However, there is something fundamentally different about getting your information online, even if you still do use old media sources. Online, pulling up competing viewpoints on a topic or criticisms of an opinion piece is as easy as a Google search. Facts can be checked, myths debunked, and diverse viewpoints consumed in minutes. You almost have to be willfully ignorant to get taken in by media bias in the online universe.

With this fundamental change, I would argue the media has less influence on our politics today than it had even four years ago, and certainly less than it had in the golden eras of mass communication. Take the presidential primaries as a potent example.

When the primaries began almost two years ago, there were two media frontrunners: Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

As we all know well, the old media was filled with stories of Clinton's inevitability and Giuliani's heroics after 9/11. To be sure, these frontrunner picks were based on early poll numbers, but anyone with half a brain could understand these early polls meant little. Clinton and Giuliani were the biggest names in the race - people knew them and their poll numbers reflected that.

In a very real sense, the old media manufactured these two frontrunner narratives and to their surprise, they both collapsed - in no small part because of grassroots organizing and online outlets like blogs.

Now, it would be a mistake to discount the old media completely. Sexism, racism, gotcha politics, and all kinds of media manufactured scandals affected the race. And to be sure, the media abandoned its chosen frontrunners and latched onto other candidates during the course of the primary. The old media still has power, no question. But it is striking when you realize the two candidates our corporate media overlords picked to compete in the 2008 general election both lost.

Let's herald this as a small victory. The old media still commands a vast audience and has vast influence, but its days are numbered. It still has power - I wait in dread for the day when they really turn against Barack Obama - but perhaps that power is waning in some significant ways.

This year, people stood up, read the news, and voted for the candidate they believed in.

J Ro's opinions are his own and do not represent those of any other person or organization.

Readers of this blog know that I am particularly pleased that Rudy Giulilani has lost in Florida, lost his bid to be President of 9/11.

So says Mark Halperin:

SOURCES: Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday — in Los Angeles or Simi Valley.

But seriously, where else are Giuliani voters going to go?

If things continue the way they're going, McCain is poised for a win and it looks like Huckabee pulled conservatives from Romney in key areas. The problem for conservatives is that Giuliani is dropping out while Huckabee has no plans to do so.

When are conservatives going to take down McCain?

Update [2008-1-29 21:11:33 by Todd Beeton]:Giuliani campaign has confirmed that they are going to California tomorrow but won't confirm that he intends to endorse McCain.

Howard Fineman on MSNBC: "There are ongoing conversations between high levels of both campaigns, I have the sense more about how to do it than whether to do it."

If you're so inclined...

Update [2008-1-29 21:25:28 by Todd Beeton]:He's trying to get out with his dignity intact. I'd say it's a close call.

"Thanks to Ron Paul too, he won every debate!"

He's certainly showing more personality and passion in this speech than I've ever seen from him.

Haha. "We ran a campaign that was uplifting." Wha-? "...a return to honesty and substance in our political discussion." Huh?

Update [2008-1-29 21:26:4 by Jonathan Singer]: It's not quite a Nixonian flameout, but I keep thinking I'm going to hear the words, "You're not going to have Giuliani to kick around anymore..."

This podcast looks at (1) results of the South Carolina Democratic Primary; (2) a brief discussion about the media coverage of identity politics and (3) a look ahead to the Florida and February 5th primaries...

[Listen Online]

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week's podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we'll include it in the podcast).

[Re-published from 2008Central.net.  This liveblog on MyDD will be updated periodically.  For the latest please visit the active liveblog at 2008Central.net]

7:30: Time Russert and Brian Williams (henceforth, Bri-Wi) are moderating this debate, and participating are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul. I'm looking for Huckabee and Giuliani to be particularly aggressive, as a bad finish in Florida could really hurt them.

As an aside, today is the one year anniversary of 2008Central.net. So for those of you who have stuck around for all 1,053 posts now, I'm sure you realize how damned lucky you are to have us.  But enough about us, you're here to see two old white men question five other old white men about who should replace another old white man. How thrilling!

8:46: MSNBC says the debate is "DO OR DIE."  in large all-cap font. Note this, because your children will want to know about the time that four presidential candidates were all killed on stage by a major news company. In other words, don't expect this debate to be a subtle discussion of minor differences.

8:59: Want to skip us as middlemen and watch it yourself but don't have cable? Screw you! Seriously, though, watch here. Brian Williams just told people not to cheer to give people at home misleading impressions. And now he's thanking military people in the audience.

9:01: Lyndon Johnson was at the university when it opened. Hillary Clinton just issued a press release that it takes a president to open a school.

9:02: Candidates are tired; apparently, they requested the debate only goes 90 minutes instead of 2 hours at their request. Tim Russert looks angry.

9:03: Romney is asked about the stimulus plan, and contrasts it with Bush's. Is he disappointed? Romney says it is effective, he just wishes it went further. Romney somehow says that a permanent tax cut is equivalent to a rebate or no taxes on capital gains. Talks about creating jobs and the mortgage crisis. He sounds like he's somewhat competent, but pandering at the same time.

9:05: McCain says he will vote for the plan, and is disappointed it does not make the Bush tax cuts permanent. McCain talks about people having uncertainty in their budget for 2010, and it sounds like a punch line. Segues into pork barrel talk. Talks up the rate cuts by Bernanke and the need for tax cuts. He's completely trying to erase any doubts of him on the tax issue.

9:07: Giuliani says the package is OK, but does not go far enough. Talks up his surrogates introducing legislation (Dreier and Bond). Says there is no difference between temporary and permanent. Says that if America over taxes, spends, sues, or regulates that America loses. Specifically excludes military spending. Said he is worried about London overtaking NYC as financial center.

[Continued at 2008Central.net]

Throughout the summer it became clear that as people got to know Rudy Giuliani, the less they liked him. It was inevitable, after all, considering his sky-high favorability ratings were based on such a profoundly unsubstantiated myth. But those were national numbers. What about where he actually campaigned, on the ground, and allowed people to really get to know him, the real him?

Not much better I'm afraid.

As we all know, Rudy Giuliani is banking everything on Florida and has been campaigning there exclusively for weeks. As TPM tells us:

...he has flooded the state with money and resources -- including having 50 paid staffers in four state offices and spending more than $1 million on advertising since Christmas.

At this point, sources said, he is spending about $350,000 a day on TV ads, a pace that would leave him essentially broke after Florida's Jan. 29 primary.

So what kinds of dividends is it paying? Check out these sad Florida numbers, culled from Real Clear Politics:

Pre-Christmas 11-poll ave. (11/9-12/18)	Post-Christmas 11-poll ave. (1/7-1/21)
29.2	20.3

A nine point drop since going on the air and essentially having Florida to himself. And check out his level of support from mid-to-late January; in 5 successive polls, he manages to go from 23 to 22 to 21 to 20 to 19. Saaaaad.

Of course, Rudy's presence in Florida isn't the only thing that's changed since Christmas; elsewhere in the country people have actually started voting and it's not gone unnoticed by Florida voters that Rudy hasn't won, hell, he hasn't even placed, in any early contest. Which points to what may turn out to be the fatal flaw of Rudy's all-in Florida strategy.

For the strategy to work, Giuliani's campaign was banking on two things happening. First, he needed the early state winners to be divided among several candidates. So far that has played out according to plan. On top of that, Rudy was also banking on those first few wins being momentum-proof, and again, that has been borne out to some degree since it's difficult to build momentum when a win is followed by a loss (a trend finally broken by Mitt Romney in Nevada.) But the strategy may have underestimated the importance of one key element of human nature: when it comes to voting, people like to back a winner, and a winner, Rudy ain't.