This one makes 30 by my count (counting seats left open during the middle of the campaign cycle, including IL-14):

GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall. Reynolds spokesman LD Platt did not return an e-mail seeking comment.

Reynolds, who is also a former Assembly minority leader, has been pushing back against retirement rumors for some time now.

But the recent NRCC fraud scandal - some of which took place on his watch - has made his re-election effort that much more difficult in an already tough year (increasingly Democratic state, presidential election etc).

Reynolds' district, New York's 26th, tends to lean about 3 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. But as we've seen over the last several cycles (and 2006, in particular), the Northeast is becoming increasingly hostile territory for Republicans, and specifically Republicans in the House. With at least one strong Democratic candidate already in the race -- Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who had already raised a respectable $370,000 as of the end of December -- this seat very much could swing blue this fall.

Moreover, this is the 15th district that leans 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole in which the GOP is on the defense without an incumbent in the race, and the 10th that leans 3 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. At a time when the National Republican Congressional Committee may have just a net $3 million in the bank, having so many competitive open seats in play is simply a nightmare.

Yet more bad news for House Republicans:

Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) announced Monday that he would not seek reelection

Shadegg, 58, was first elected to represent Arizona's 3rd congressional district in the Republican wave of 1994. Known for his staunch opposition to earmarks, Shadegg ran for House majority leader in 2006 after Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) resigned from Congress. He lost that race to Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio).

"The bottom line is that this is a personal decision between my family and me, about our dreams, goals, and ambitions, and we have concluded that it is time for me to seek a new challenge in a different venue to advance the cause of freedom," Shadegg said in a statement.

He added that his health is great and that he had raised more than $1 million for his planned 2008 re-election race last year. His expected Democratic opponent, Bob Lord, had raised more than $612,000.

This is, count it, the 29th open seat that the Republicans must defend this cycle, a remarkable total that represents more than one in every seven seats -- over 14 percent -- that the party won in November 2006. And with each additional retirement or resignation, it becomes that much more difficult for the Republicans to limit their losses in the House to single digits (let alone pick up seats or retake the majority). This is particularly the case with seats like that of Shadegg, which could potentially end up in play.

Arizona's third congressional district leans about 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in Presidential elections, a number that no doubt makes this a more difficult seat for the Democrats to win. This number might even be larger this fall given that an Arizona, John McCain, will likely top the GOP ticket (though McCain couldn't even crack 50 percent in the Arizona Republican primary earlier this month, so who knows...).

But the Democrats already hold 40 percent of the districts with a 6-point Republican lean across the country. And with now 16 districts left open by Republicans with leans of 6 or less points towards the GOP, there are a whole lot of potentially competitive races in stock.

What's more, the Democrats have in Bob Lords a candidate who has been able to raise some serious cash. I don't know too much about him or his candidacy, but even running against a fairly entrenched incumbent in a redder district Lord has been able to raise more than $600,000. This includes a fundraiser held for Lord in Washington, DC by Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen.

This is not to say that winning will come easy for Lord or the Democrats in this district. But every time the Democrats make the Republicans go on the defense, Democrats' chances of extending their majority increase.

The breaking news out of Oregon this morning was that Congresswoman Darlene Hooley has decided not to run for reelection in the state's fifth congressional district, which has a Cook PVI of D+1 (it tends to lean about 1 point more Democratic than the nation as a whole in Presidential elections). The Republicans have a self-funder in the district who proved to have little electoral appeal in 2006, and other names may join in the mix on that side, as well. But for those interested, Kari Chisholm gives us an idea of some of the many names on the Democratic side who could make for strong nominees. I'm summarizing his list (which is in alphabetical order), so for more head over to Blue Oregon.

• State Rep. Brian Clem, a freshman from a swing portion of the district who overwhelmingly defeated a Republican incumbent (with over 60 percent) in 2006.
  
• State Senate President Peter Courtney, who also represents a swing portion of the district.
  
• Iraq War veteran Paul Evans, a former mayor and unsuccessful 2006 state Senate candidate.
  
• House Majority Leader Dave Hunt, who comes from the heart of Clackamas County (one of the two big counties in the district).
  
• John Kroger or Greg Macpherson, who are running against each other for Attorney General in a Democratic primary.
  
• State Senator Kurt Schrader or Clackamas County Commissioner Martha Schrader, both of whom have a record of winning in red portions of the district.

One other name being floated is apparently that of Steve Novick, who is currently running for Senate in the state in a Democratic primary against House Speaker Jeff Merkley. It's not clear that he has a particular incentive to or interest in running for the House rather than the Senate. However, Novick would have the advantage of being able to transfer all of the funds from his Senate campaign to a House campaign (candidates with state campaign accounts cannot transfer those funds to a federal race).

More broadly, the trends in the district look good for the Democrats, so even though it's no doubt more difficult for a party to hold a seat left open by a retirement than it is to hold one in which a popular incumbent is running for reelection, this isn't necessarily a terrible situation for the Democrats. For instance, in 2002 Democrat Ted Kulongoski lost (.pdf) Clackamas and Marion counties, the two largest counties in the district; in 2006 he won both.

Again, obviously in a situation like this the Democrats would rather see the popular incumbent seek reelection rather than retire, opening up a seat in a competitive district. At the same time, the Democrats should hold this seat, both because of the trends in the districts and broader trends (including the fact that the DCCC has well over $30 million more in the bank than the NRCC).

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I have been following the numbers on Republican retirements fairly closely in recent months (check out the "retirements" tag). But some information conveyed in the 15th and 16th paragraphs of an otherwise not particularly insightful New York Times piece was somewhat surprising and rather interesting to me.

Four of the 28 Republicans who are so far leaving the House quit before their terms ended. They will be replaced in special elections before November, giving the winners of those races at least the technical mantle of incumbency in the general election.

That leaves 24 open Republican seats, though leaders of both parties expect at least a few more Republican retirements as state filing deadlines arrive. The high point for end-of-session Republican retirements is 27 in 1952, according to Congressional records.

The thrust of the piece is that all of these retirements "[threaten] to cripple" Republican efforts to retake the House. Talk about an understatement. This burgeoning number of open seats "threatens to cripple" efforts by the party to not lose more than a dozen seats this fall -- and it simply destroys efforts to end up with a net gain of seats, let alone coming anywhere close to retaking the House.

But for as much as the lede and the thrust of the article misses the real story -- that the Republicans' chances of retaking the House are less than zero (as they might have said back in the '80s) -- the factoid about the Republicans' current number of retirements quickly approaching the more than 55 year old record set in 1952 nevertheless stands out. True, the Republicans actually picked up seats in the 1952 House elections -- but they had to ride the coattails of Dwight Eisenhower's 55 percent of the popular vote and enjoy the drag of Harry Truman's sub-40 percent approval rating on the Democrats in order to eke out a tiny 221-seat majority. Suffice it to say that it's not particularly likely that the Republican presidential nominee is going to get northward of 55 percent in the general election, as did Eisenhower, or that the head of the Democratic Party will have an approval rating in the 30s come November.

Nevertheless, I will make one prediction (one in which I don't think I'm going too far out on the ledge for): House Republicans will set their all-time record for retirements this cycle as more and more of them seek to flee from the sinking ship that is their party and their caucus in the House of Representatives.

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First it was Jim Walsh, then it was Dave Weldon. Then came Kenny Hulshof, followed by Tom Davis. And now comes word that Kentucky's Ron Lewis has become the fifth House Republican in less than a week to announce plans for retirement.

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis, the Republican who was the first wave of the 1990s Republican Revolution, has withdrawn from his reelection campaign.

His chief of staff Dan London and State Sen. Brett Guthrie, of Bowling Green, have filed to replace him.

Guthrie said he heard rumors over the weekend that Lewis would pull out and prepared his filing papers just in case.

Markos rightly notes that with a lean of about 13 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections (according to the Cook PVI), Kentucky's second congressional district isn't the most competitive in the nation. On the other hand, the Democrats hold a registration advantage in the district in excess of 100,000 voters -- or about a 61.9 percent advantage over the Republicans. What's more, Lewis managed to receive just 55 percent of the vote in 2006, indicating that voters in the district are more than open to voting Democratic.

On top of that, the Democrats have at least a couple of strong candidates looking at the race already. State Senator David Boswell announced earlier this month that he is running, and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire is also looking at potentially running.

But more than the Democrats' real shot at contesting an open seat race in this district, Lewis' announcement marks the fifth retirement in less than a week for House Republicans -- the fourth in as many business days upping the number of open seats that they must defend this cycle to 28. And I've got a distinct feeling that this trend isn't going to be ending any time soon...

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Via Breaking Blue, Not Larry Sabato already had the story. But now The Examiner is on it, too.

Influential Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis will announce his retirement from Congress this week, multiple political sources told The Examiner Monday.

Davis has decided not to seek an eighth term in office, five sources with ties to the Republican congressman or his political allies said. The decision was widely expected after Davis pulled out of a potential U.S. Senate campaign and his wife lost a re-election bid in a Fairfax County district with a similar growing Democratic lean last fall.

The 11th district, which Davis represents, leans about 1 point more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections -- though the outward growth of the DC-area has made the district more and more Democratic-leaning in recent years. In 2005, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Kaine won the 11th 55.7 percent to 42.4 percent (running about 4 points better than he ran statewide), and in 2006, Jim Webb won the district 54.7 percent to 44.2 percent over George Allen (with Webb running about 5 points better than he did statewide). What's more, looking around the country the Democrats already hold six of the 15 districts (40 percent) that lean 1 point towards the GOP, scoring four pickups in such districts in 2006 (Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona, Tim Walz in Minnesota, and John Hall and Mike Arcuri in New York).

Perhaps even more importantly, the Democrats have at least a couple of very good candidates in the district. The Democrats' 2005 Lieutenant Governor nominee Leslie Byrne, who actually preceded Davis in office, is already in the race, and Gerry Connolly, who was reelected last fall as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is raising money for a race as well.

Let's still wait until the end of the week or whenever to hear that (or if) Tom Davis makes it 27 open seats that the House Republicans must defend in 2008 -- including 15 in districts that either lean Democratic or tend to lean 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. But here's to hoping.

Just to add... Byrne carried the district 54.7 percent to 45.2 percent in 2005, running 5.5 percent ahead of her statewide total. Democratic Attorney General nominee Creigh Deeds lost statewide by 323 votes, or 1/100th of a percentage points, but won the 11th district 52.9 percent to 47.0 percent.

Earlier I noted that tonight's State of the Union would not only be the last for George W. Bush but that it would also be the last for a whole lot of congressional Republicans, both those who will be defeated in November and those who are retiring. Well, you might be able to add one more name to that second list, according to CQPolitics.com.

Missouri Republican Rep. Kenny Hulshof reportedly has decided to run for governor of his home state this year, and will forgo a campaign for a seventh House term in the 9th District.

Hulshof will announce his plans Tuesday, according to the Kansas City Star, which cited Republican sources. He would be seeking to succeed retiring one-term Republican Matt Blunt -- the son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri's 7th District -- who was viewed as a rising star when elected governor in 2004 at age 33 but struggled with mediocre approval ratings ever since.

According to the Cook Political Report (.pdf), this would mark the 26th open seat that the Republicans have to defend this cycle (counting both retirements and resignations) -- or about 13 percent of the seats the party won on November 7, 2006. With every extra retirement, the Republicans' task of limiting their losses (let alone picking up seats, let alone retaking the House) becomes that much more difficult.

It's true that Missouri's ninth district, which Hulshof represents, does lean about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. But this doesn't mean that the Democrats wouldn't have a realistic shot at winning this seat. Going through the 13 districts across the country that have that same partisan lean, the Democrats already control nearly half (six). In 2004, the Democrats picked up a similar district in the neighboring state of Kentucky with Ben Chandler's victory in a special election, and in 2006, alone, Democrats had three victors in districts with a lean of R+7: Heath Shuler in North Carolina, Baron Hill in Indiana Nancy Boyda in the neighboring state of Kansas. Perhaps more importantly, it looks like the Democrats may already have a strong candidate in the race in state Rep. Judy Baker.

Hulshof has yet to officially announce that he's not running for another term, so we need not yet get too far ahead of ourselves (though here's the Kansas City Star article for those interested). But if he does indeed retire from the House, as CQ suggests, there's likely to be a real race to replace him.

Just to add... Swing State Project sees another potential GOP retirement in the works.

The exodus continues:

Rep. Dave Weldon (R-Fla.) is expected to announce that he will retire from Congress at the end of this session, a Republican source confirmed Friday.

The surprise announcement comes within hours of the congressman's daughter, Katie Weldon, being arrested and jailed, accused of attacking an employee at a Brevard County bar.

(I'm not going to touch that last part...)

This one's another tough one for the Republicans given that Weldon represents a seat that while not necessarily a swing district is definitely a competitive one. According to the Cook Political Report, Florida's 15th district leans only about 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. For reference, the Democrats already hold six of the 19 districts (or about 32 percent) with a similar partisan lean. Perhaps more importantly, Weldon's retirement decision ups the number of GOP open seats in districts that lean 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole to 14.

Additionally, word has it that popular former Broward County commissioner Nancy Higgs, a Democrat, should announce today that she will be running in the district, so the Democrats should already have at least one credible candidate in the race.

But that's not the limit to the Republicans' retirement concerns. As I suggested a couple of nights ago, the stream of retirements from within the House GOP camp isn't likely to slow down any time soon, as evidenced by the back-to-back announcements by Jim Walsh in New York and Weldon down in Florida. And now it seems that another endangered Republican in a potentially competitive district may be mulling retirement:

Another area congressman who narrowly won reelection in 2006 is Randy Kuhl, a Republican from Hammondsport, Steuben County. He represents the 29th district, which covers Monroe County's southeastern suburbs.

A Kuhl spokeswoman said today he had not decided whether he would run for reelection. [emphasis added]

As you might remember, Eric Massa, who is running again this cycle, nearly knocked off Kuhl in 2006, holding the Republican to about 52 percent of the vote in the district. If all of the Republicans who faced tough challenges last time around and whose reelection hopes are in real danger this year decide not to run for another term, there might not be any Republicans left in the House still representing Northeastern states -- or potentially competitive districts around the country, for that matter.