Here are a dozen, guaranteed, money back reasons why John McCain won't be the next president. (I can only offer a limited-time, money-back guarantee, since unfortunately I can't control world events.)

1. The McBush factor. McCain's support of the Iraq War will make it impossible for him to break from Bush, the most unpopular president in living memory. The photo of McCain hugging and being kissed by Bush will become increasingly embedded in the collective consciousness of the American people as the months roll on.

2. The Republican factor. Yes, McCain is a Republican. He will not be able to deny this fact. Currently, this is not the best party to have behind you in a push to the White House. Witness the recent loss of three traditionally Republican congressional seats and the declining number of Americans willing to identify themselves as Republicans. And then there are the comments of Congressman Tom Davis. "The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006" (NY Times, May 15th, 2008).

3. The Last War Syndrome. McCain and the operatives running his campaign are like generals fighting the last war. They are still convinced that negative advertising will be as successful against Obama as it was against Kerry. However, "The Times They are A-Changin." And this leads to the next factor.

4. The Change Factor: Hillary tried experience, but this race is about change and the future. McCain appears to be operating a time machine that has only a reverse gear.

5. The Money Factor: Obama can raise a lot more, and a lot more quickly.....enough said.

6. The Age Factor: McCain's age will hurt him. (I am not claiming that this is fair, but seems to be a fact. Older voters are especially concerned about McCain's age.)

7. The Not So Straight-talk Factor: McCain has built his reputation on being a man of principle. This has two features: he believes in something and he sticks with what he believes in. McCain has recently begun to backpedal on principles and commitments. He is vulnerable to being viewed as a flip-flopper, if not dishonest, which will undermine his hitherto greatest strength.

8. The Organizational Factor: The evidence thus far suggests that Obama has a far better campaign organization. There will be a volunteer gap, that is, Obama will have a lot more of them and they will be more enthusiastic than McCain's campaign workers.

9. The Skeleton Factor: The Keating Five and lobbyists, need I say more.

10. The Anger Problem: It's real.

11. The Crass and Crude Comment Problem: A corollary to the anger problem. He has made outrageous, crude, sometimes vile remarks, and most Americans don't know about them, yet. For examples, see http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/8/1 7456/91972/887/492360

12. And last, but not least, The Lack of Background in Economics Factor. McCain has acknowledged that he needs to read up on economics. Not great for building confidence in a candidate in the midst of a recession.

Okay, that's twelve. But let's make it a baker's dozen.

13. The "My Friends" Factor. I don't believe that Americans will be prepared to live with four or eight years of being addressed by John McCain as, "My Friends," especially when it is followed by that rather strange little grin.

http://msa4.wordpress.com/

Few Buzz terms get thrown about so often or so wildly during this primary season than that noble sounding very democratic phrase; "the popular will". Mostly its use is coupled with demands that it be honored, and dire warnings about the ruin that lies in store for the Democratic Party if "the Popular Will" is "overturned" by Super Delegates at the 2008 Democratic Convention.

When rhetoric is removed from substance however, what remains is a simple assertion, namely a claim that whichever Democratic candidate enters the 2008 Democratic Convention holding a lead in pledged delegates embodies "the popular will", and with that an inherent implicit democratic right to become the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee. Flowing from that assumption come dark warnings voiced by some about efforts to "steal" the nomination from its otherwise rightful heir through some sort of Super Delegate engineered "coup".  

I understand and accept that fair criticism of Hillary Clinton is certainly possible, including some on matters related to what I include on my list below.  But I think most folks reading this in good faith can acknowledge the difference between what I am discussing here and fair criticism.

Current Attack Meme Lie Number One:

"Hillary has no chance of winning" feeds into...

Current Attack Meme Lie Number Two:

"Hillary must now only be in this to make Barack Obama lose the election" (so she can run in 2012) which feeds into...

Current Attack Meme Lie Number Three:

"Hillary really wants McCain to become President and hopes to be in his Administration"

These are the current talking points being used to take down Hillary Clinton. They have been seeded into the echo chamber. It doesn't matter that they are lies, they are good ways of tearing Hillary Clinton down.

Last week a diarist put up An Ode to Clinton's Narcissism. Setrak had the great idea that everyone should respond in poetry. I'm attempting to resurrect that idea. Here were my two entries into that thread:

This will be a short diary. I am frankly over the primaries. Whoever wins, I will support.

What I do have a problem with going forward are the supporters. Do you think for one moment that you will not need each other in the general election? If you do, you are delusional. I don't care who you support. Clinton will need Obama. Obama will need Clinton. What we don't need is the immaturity that passes for commentary to spill over into the general.

Who wins if this vitriol spills over into the general? That's an easy one- John McCain and the Republican Party. Who loses? Again- an easy one- the Democrats and the American people.

Note: You can also follow the New Mexico Super Delegates at the Super Delegate Transparency Project.

If you say you knew what a super delegate was before this year's Democratic Presidential race... you're either lying or you are a legendary political junkie.  Or maybe you were once a super delegate yourself.

And many of those who now know about the existence of super delegates still do not know who are super delegates and how one becomes a super delegate.  To become a super delegate, you must be a current or former elected officeholder or a DNC party official.  So who are the super delegates in New Mexico and who do they support?

Go below the fold to see.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

In reality it has been as dirty as a spelling bee for politics played at this level. What passes as an underhanded attack in these primaries wouldn't qualify as a soft ball pitch in a hard fought Presidential campaign. The 2004 Democratic Primaries were nastier by far than what we have seen in the 2008 primaries to date. Many of the very same people who practice character assassination online daily are the first to scream bloody murder if anyone touches a kid glove to Barack Obama in the real world. Online this campaign is down and dirty, but not where our candidates actually live.

Having your actual middle name mentioned in public, no matter what it might be, is not hard ball politics. Having passages from a memoir that you yourself wrote speculated about in public is not hard ball politics. Calling attention to a candidate's race in a contest that the entire world is fixated on in part due to that candidate's race, is not hard ball politics. Having a second federal prosecutor reopen a closed investigation of the suicide of your personal friend to determine if he was actually murdered, while national talk radio fingers you as the probable murderess, now THAT is hard ball politics.