Earlier I mentioned some comments from Chuck Todd that implied that Obama's leaving California today while Clinton remains was a sign his campaign believes there's more to gain by going to other February 5th states than there is to lose by leaving the state to surrogates like Ted Kennedy, even if it means conceding California to Clinton. But has he really given up on California? Obama addressed the question at a press conference earlier today.

Today, Mr. Obama flew from California to begin the sprint to Super Tuesday, campaigning in New Mexico and Idaho, Minnesota and Missouri. In a news conference in Los Angeles, Mr. Obama was asked why it appeared he was giving up on California, which holds the largest trove of delegates. He smiled...and said: "We'll see. I don't share that view."

"I think this is going to be very competitive, but we've got 22 states," Mr. Obama said. "Just from a purely strategic perspective, I think everybody understands that if we are spending all of our time in one state and not spending time in the other 21, then that might not lead to the most delegates. And this is, frankly, a delegate race at this point."

The reason for his confidence just arrived in my inbox:

LOS ANGELES -- The Obama for America campaign today announced that Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey and Caroline Kennedy will hold a Get Out The Vote Rally this Sunday in Los Angeles .  The rally will be free and open to the public.  More details will be released when they become available.

Just as the Obama campaign has dispatched Kennedy and a stable of local hispanic leaders to campaign for Obama throughout California to try to undermine Hillary Clinton's strength among latinos, so is this Oprah event a blatant attempt to eat into Hillary's support among women.

Whether it will do what's intended is another story. When Oprah initially went on the campaign trail for Obama, she won universally rave reviews in the media but the consensus was that her endorsement itself wouldn't necessarily move voters, rather it would merely open the door to a whole universe of voters and it would be Obama's responsibility to win them over on his merits. At this point, does Obama still need that introduction? And isn't there a danger it could hurt rather than help? There was a lot of consternation on the message boards of Oprah's website at the time complaining that Oprah turned political and that she "turned it into a black thing," as though she broke some sacred trust with her fans. And my Mom's take I think was not atypical: Oprah is asking people to support Barack for the wrong reasons, namely simply because she said so.

I personally don't begrudge Oprah's advocacy on Obama's part for either of these reasons, and perhaps if there's any backlash it's against Oprah herself rather than against Obama, but it's something to look for. I'll be attending the Oprah event on Sunday and will, of course, report back from the ground.

According to First Read there is a possibility that Oprah may join Obama in campaigning in California

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/01/29/619441.aspx

A new Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll out of South Carolina (480 LVs, Dec. 8-9, MOE +/- 4%) finds Barack Obama extending his lead over Hillary Clinton by 4% in less than a week. The poll was in the field over the weekend, which was dominated by coverage of Oprah's early state appearances with Obama, including a huge rally in South Carolina on Sunday.

	Dec. 8-9	Dec. 3-4	RCP 4-poll Ave.
Obama	28	26	27
Clinton	22	24	32.8
Edwards	14	15	11.8
Biden	10	10	6
Richardson	2	2	1.3
Kucinich	1	1
Undecided	23	22

The shift appears to be due almost entirely to African-American voters who as recently as Dec. 3-4, when the latest Rasmussen poll was in the field, had been found to be abandoning Senator Clinton although it wasn't clear yet that they were sold on Senator Obama. Thanks to Oprah Winfrey, that appears to be changing.

"Obama's support among African-Americans rose a bit over the weekend, while Clinton's dropped. This follows our poll of late last week in which there was a major shift in black voters towards Obama. Edwards lost a small amount, as this likely shifted to undecided.  

"However, Obama's white vote has not moved. Clearly the Oprah Winfrey visit to the state moved African-American voters. The issue now is whether Clinton can eat into some of Edward's support or reclaim some of her prior African-American support.

These results are expected to be borne out in an upcoming poll, which Political Wire got an advance look at.

Political Wire got an advance look at a new survey in South Carolina that shows Sen. Barack Obama moving into a statistical tie with Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The poll also shows Obama had stronger numbers after Oprah Winfrey's weekend visit to the state.

I find the the fact that Oprah is moving African-American voters exclusively fairly fascinating considering her cultural impact so clearly transcends race.

Update [2007-12-11 18:40:49 by Todd Beeton]:Some interesting Survey USA results out from SC, via TPM:

The new SurveyUSA poll of South Carolina shows a narrowing Democratic field. Hillary Clinton has a statistically insignificant 44%-40% lead over Barack Obama, with John Edwards way behind at only 11%. In SurveyUSA's last poll a month ago, Hillary led Obama 47%-33%.

Interestingly, the internals show little change in terms of Obama's performance with white voters or Hillary's performance with blacks. The change has come in the demographic make-up of likely voters. A month ago, African-Americans made up 49% of likely voters — whereas now they are measured as taking up 54% of the likely Dem electorate, providing a net boost for Obama.

Hillary Clinton's campaign is releasing a 60 second radio ad in South Carolina with Oprah's mentor, and good friend, Maya Angelou.  

In the add, Maya Angelou states:

"Each generation of African Americans stands on the shoulders of those who came before. Today, the challenges facing us threaten the dreams we have had for our children. We need a president with the experience and strength to meet those challenges."

I think Maya Angelou will resonate more with African American women in their 40's and older.  And while either campaign would be stupid to attack either Oprah or Maya, its a lot easier for MSM and newspapers to bring up questionable Oprah tactics (Union issue) than it would be to go after Maya Angelou.

Either way, the Clinton camp isn't ceding the black vote while the Obama camp is trying to get the Clinton women vote.  Things are getting very tight indeed!

OK adding this

Perhaps you've heard that Oprah is appearing with Barack Obama today at 4:30pm EST in DesMoines. Over 20,000 tickets have been issued. The event is airing on CSPAN and streaming online at CSPAN.org. The big question, of course, is will Oprah's endorsement matter. On one hand, in general, endorsements from celebrities rarely carry any weight; on the other hand, Oprah isn't like most celebrities, she actually is an opinionmaker and inspires people to take action. But voting is different from buying a book.

Michelle Obama is introducing Oprah now.

Are you watching?

Update [2007-12-8 16:45:33 by Todd Beeton]:It's actually pretty interesting to see Oprah in this context. "I understand the difference between a book club and a free refrigerator, between that and this moment in our nation's history. And so I bathed, I got dressed and I am here because I care about this country."

"I am not here to tell you what to think. I am here to ask you to think. Seriously."

"I am not here for partisan beliefs. Over the years I have voted for as many Republicans as I have Democrats. This is not about partisanship for me, this is about a personal belief."

Update [2007-12-8 16:45:33 by Todd Beeton]:I wonder to what extent her remarks are reflective of his messaging, if there was any vetting or even suggested talking points from his campaign. One of her lines was interesting, she reframed security as something other than fighting terrorism, including domestic issues such as healthcare. If this is an indication of a future Obama argument, that would be a good thing.

Update [2007-12-8 16:51:29 by Todd Beeton]:OK, Oprah just expressed opposition to the war with this line: "And long before it was the popular thing to do, he stood with clarity and conviction against this war in Iraq." That is far different than advocating for a candidate. One wishes she were more outspoken about the war back when she could have been an influence in the debate. "We need a president with clarity and conviction." A little hit at Hillary perhaps.

Update [2007-12-8 16:59:20 by Todd Beeton]:Oprah just introduced Barack with the line "He is the one!" Seeing Barack speak, it's interesting to see the difference between his stump style and his speech/rally style. I've only seen him in the context of the latter, but he is phenomenally comfortable, casual, personable. I guess that's what people mean when they say he's found his voice.

Update [2007-12-8 17:13:45 by Todd Beeton]:He's now in stump speech mode. I've seen him speak a few times and this is the first time I can recall I've ever heard him say "I am a proud Democrat and I know some people in here may not be Democrats." He said "I am a proud Democrat" three times. "I want to lead a party that's not timid but bold. A party that is leading, that's not just talking about change as a slogan but that is talking about real meaningful change." Glad to see he's embracing partisan language and indeed it doesn't prevent him from advancing a unity message. He uses it as a. an invitation to non-Democrats to join his campaign and b. as a rally to reform the Democratic Party. And c. he manages to get in a subtle dig at Hillary. The only problem is that I wish Obama was putting his money where his mouth is and was running a less timid campaign himself.

Update [2007-12-8 17:20:3 by Todd Beeton]:Ah, yep, Obama is re-framing security: "And we will lead the world to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Nuclear proliferation and terrorism, but also climate change and poverty and genocide and disease, those are threats to our security as well."

Update [2007-12-8 17:20:3 by Todd Beeton]:Haha. "I'm going to be releasing my kindergarten papers tomorrow."

Update [2007-12-8 17:25:16 by Todd Beeton]:"Iowa, I need you to stand up!" seems to have replaced "Fired Up! Ready to go!" Good. What's up with CSPAN's audio? Isn't this what they do?

Update [2007-12-8 17:32:37 by Todd Beeton]:OK, now for the crazy CSPAN callers. Two Republicans in a row saying they find Obama refreshing and they're considering supporting him. Usually the Republican phone line is filled with Democrat bashing. Interesting, a Republican just accused CSPAN of sabotaging Barack's speech b/c of the audio problems.

This is live from Des Moines, IA.

4:30P EST

I know many over here are in angst about Obama, even more so shivering about any possible Oprah effect, but just relax.  Enjoy the rally, feel the power, get engaged whether for Obama or not, to help your candidate win.

Hillary really needs all the help she can get.  She is coming down in the polls, state wide and nationally, so if you are so inflamed about the Oprah effect, take your @ssets to Iowa and help her out.

Go Obama.  Go Oprah.  Go Iowa.  We are watching history in the making.

Back during the end of September 2000, when Gore had Bush on the mat following the bounce from the LA convention and the RATS ad, it was Oprah that picked Bush up off the ground.

"My pleasure," he purred when she thanked him for the kiss. The establishment media went gaga after Oprah embraced Bush.

That's what I know about Oprah and her politics.

reposted by permission of the diarist.
cross-posted @ One Million Strong & Daily Kos

             

My second trip to the wonderful state of Iowa.

The prior trip things were moving and progressing.  The staff was confident and upbeat about many things happening.

This time, extremely upbeat, extremely confident, and touts the JJ Dinner for the turning point.

A lot is happening, check it out over the