It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

Right after the Ohio Democratic Primaries ended, I remember watching the talking heads on both CNN and MSNBC (I refuse to watch Faux News for electoral coverage).  As everyone knows, Hillary Clinton won that state with 54% of the vote.  The talking heads went on to say how if Hillary didn't get the nomination, that the blue-collar hard hats (sometimes known as "Reagan Democrats") would go for John McCain.  And of course, Pat Buchanan, politics' Archie Bunker, said it was inconceivable that blue-collar workers would vote for Obama in November. On CNN, you had one of Hillary's supporters, Lanny Davis saying Ohio was much in doubt should Barack take the nomination.

From today's Beyond Chron.

Yesterday's Washington Post had a front-page piece on Findlay, Ohio - the "Flag City" - where small-town voters in the ultimate swing state still believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim.  What the Post didn't report is that Findlay voted 2-1 for George Bush in 2004, and in 2006 rejected Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown (who won a landslide victory statewide.)  It's just the latest example of the media projecting the myth that the Presidential race is somehow close, and grasping for non-existent trends to keep it alive.

But reality says otherwise.  Women and Latinos who supported Hillary Clinton are flocking to Obama, despite the narrative that Democrats are "divided."  State-by-state polls consistently show Obama on his way to surpassing 270 electoral votes - with hints that November could become a rout.  Even national polls with Obama ahead by double digits are dismissed as "outliers," along with the constant reminder that Michael Dukakis blew a 17-point lead (without any context of two very different candidates).  The media won't admit that the Presidential race is over, and Obama is going to win.

SurveyUSA was in the field in Ohio earlier this week, and the results among likely voters look like this:

John McCain (R): 46 percent
Barack Obama (D): 48 percent

With this new poll in the mix, the Pollster.com trend estimate puts Barack Obama up 46.1 percent to 42.7 percent; the Real Clear Politics poll average puts Obama up 47.3 percent to 43.8 percent; and Five Thirty Eight projects a 4.4 percentage point victory for Obama in the state. In other words, the race in the state is tight -- though Obama appears to have a narrow, though noticeable, edge currently.

What does the map look like if Obama is indeed able to pull off a victory in Ohio? The path to victory for John McCain becomes significantly more tenuous. A win in Ohio brings 20 electoral votes, meaning that if Obama can carry the state in November and can keep the Kerry states in the Democratic column-- and he now leads in each of them, according to averages of polling from the states -- he would win the White House. Tack on states like Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia -- additional states that George W. Bush carried in 2004 that Pollster.com now shows Obama leading in -- as well as the handful of other red states Obama is clearly competitive in, and all the sudden the map looks a lot less like a 50/50 split and a lot more like, well, something entirely different.

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

Now that Michigan, Iowa, and New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon seem to trending blue, we appear to be heading toward a likely 264 electoral votes (270 needed).

So the question is this: which "red" states does Obama have a shot at winning?

Yes, there are many possibilities, but let's be super-realistic.

We have 3 good shots at it: OH, CO, and VA, maybe 4 if you include Indiana.  Florida and Nevada are also possibilities, but Obama's been polling behind there overall.

Obama's best shot seems to be CO (9EV) or Ohio (20EV).  He's currently ahead in both states, but only by a small margin.  He's tied in IN and VA.

More great news on the polling front--it appears our 50 state strategy is working. A new poll out today from Rasmussen Reports details this strikingly--for the first time in a long time, we will have a Presidential canidate who is competititve in the Deep South. We've heard about Georgia already, but now Mississippi is well within range for Senator Obama, with news out from the first post-primary poll of the state:

(after the flap)

Today John McCain will be in the Mahoning Valley trying to convince Ohioans that the economy has been good in the seven and a half years under George Bush. In fact, he described the Bush years as "a pretty good prosperous time" and said that NAFTA has been "a great thing for America."

So we went to the Mahoning Valley, an area that has been devastated by the policies of the Bush Administration, to see what real Ohioans think about McCain's views on the economy. And they responded very candidly. You can watch the video below.