Must be good news for John McCain.

Florida

John McCain: 44 percent
Barack Obama: 46 percent

(June: Obama 47, McCain 43)

Ohio

John McCain: 44 percent
Barack Obama: 46 percent

(June: Obama 48, McCain 42)

Pennsylvania

John McCain: 42 percent
Barack Obama: 49 percent

(June: Obama 52, McCain 40)

With numbers like these, it must be a statistical heat, right? Of course the odds of it being a tie considering Obama led or was tied in 50 straight national polls up through Sunday is are about .0000000000000009 (perhaps a little higher now with the Gallup poll showing Obama up among registered voters but down according to the pollster's likely voter model). But, still, it must be a tie...

SurveyUSA was in the field in Ohio earlier this week, and the results among likely voters look like this:

John McCain (R): 46 percent
Barack Obama (D): 48 percent

With this new poll in the mix, the Pollster.com trend estimate puts Barack Obama up 46.1 percent to 42.7 percent; the Real Clear Politics poll average puts Obama up 47.3 percent to 43.8 percent; and Five Thirty Eight projects a 4.4 percentage point victory for Obama in the state. In other words, the race in the state is tight -- though Obama appears to have a narrow, though noticeable, edge currently.

What does the map look like if Obama is indeed able to pull off a victory in Ohio? The path to victory for John McCain becomes significantly more tenuous. A win in Ohio brings 20 electoral votes, meaning that if Obama can carry the state in November and can keep the Kerry states in the Democratic column-- and he now leads in each of them, according to averages of polling from the states -- he would win the White House. Tack on states like Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia -- additional states that George W. Bush carried in 2004 that Pollster.com now shows Obama leading in -- as well as the handful of other red states Obama is clearly competitive in, and all the sudden the map looks a lot less like a 50/50 split and a lot more like, well, something entirely different.