The 2008 gubernatorial races were never meant to be the cycle's most suspenseful contests, but my March ratings found that the top four races had gotten unexpectedly more competitive, with three making their way to the toss-up rating. Yet, things have quieted down over the past few months. For one, heated Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were resolved and it will take some time before the general election in these states reaches full speed. Meanwhile, Missouri's Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon is expanding his lead over his two potential opponents in what is looking like it could be a runaway race.

Originally posted on Campaign Diaries.

I must admit I write this saddened that Senator Helms is dead.

While most of my fellow travellers --- Senator Helms told me personally when I was working for Senator Moynihan that I was a "wretched little communist" --- are probably gleeful at his passing.  I am not.  He was a frequent friend in the mornings (in the Senate cafeteria) when he and I used to talk Redskins football and the need for Baseball in the Nation's Capitol.  I knew what he was working for and he knew what I wanted and he and I "agreed to disagree"

More importantly, I considered him a boon to liberals.

In 1984, he sucked a boatload of money out of the political system (he actually fundraised in sates with fellow Republicans trying to get re-elected) and kept the Democrats in position to retake the Senate in 1986.  

In 1990, he ran the most racist campaign in 25 years.  It was deplorable.  1990 was an anti-incumbent year and Helms once again defunded the right in his effort to get re-elected.  

In 1996, Helms (two years into a Republican held Senate) again went all out to raise money.

In addition to his penchant for selfishly putting his re-election ahead of everyone else, Helms defined Right Wing.  In 1990 while woprking to re-elect a NJ congressman, I quipped to the press that my boss' opponent had more in common with Jesse Helms than the people of New Jersey.

I studied his every move and his every word, he was teh master of defining the contest and his opponent.  The first Democratic politician I saw that emulated his technique was Harris Wofford...who was advised by Carville and Begala (who would go national with Clinton)

Goodbye Jesse, say hello to Lucifer for me.

It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows the race for president in North Carolina holding fairly steady with McCain up by single digits and Bob Barr taking a solid chunk of the electorate.

Interestingly, Barr takes equally from Republicans and Democrats , although one suspects that the Democrats who would vote for Barr would never vote for Obama anyway. Barr takes 12% of independents.

Obama's clear weak spot here is among his own party base. While he wins independents by 12%, Obama is winning Dems by just 67-20, whereas McCain is winning Republicans by 83-6. Paging Bill and Hillary Clinton...

And this from PPP's blog points to a reason that North Carolina is likely to become bluer and bluer as time goes on.

Barack Obama leads 46-40 among those surveyed who were born in a place other than North Carolina. John McCain has the 49-36 advantage with natives of the state. As more and more people come to North Carolina from other places, it could trend more Democratic in national elections.

Unfortunately, Key Hagan is not performing as strongly against Elizabeth Dole in PPP's poll as Obama is against McCain as Dole continues to expand her lead to double digits and above 50%.

One bright spot for Hagan is the major upside of having Obama at the top of the ticket.

From PPP's blog:

One of the biggest red flags for Hagan is difficulty in securing the black vote. Right now she leads Dole just 52-28 with them, and the 20% of African American voters who report being undecided is higher than almost any other demographic. Hagan will have to significantly improve her standing there to have any chance this fall.

Dole's strength among African-American voters is unlikely to stick once Obama begins actively campaigning in the state, one suspects, with Hagan. This is one state where Obama's coattails are going to be unmistakeable, even if he loses the state.

Help Kay Hagan out over at our Road To 60 Act Blue page.

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

The floods in the Midwest have continued and I include some information where I can in the Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin sections. Best of luck to all readers in the hard hit areas.

This week I return to an issue I discussed before: Republican cronies litterally killing our troops with no government oversight. This week Democratic Sentor Bob Casey is demanding an investigation of the electrocutions due to bad wiring that have been plaguing our military bases managed by a Hallibruton subsidiary. More below.

The new Civitas poll (600 RVs, June 11-13, MOE +/- 4%) out of North Carolina confirms recent trends that indicate that Barack Obama may have single-handedly turned North Carolina into a swing state.

The key factors in the result, according to Civitas's analysis:

"Both Senator McCain and Senator Obama improved their numbers over last month by solidifying the support of their party's base voters," said Francis DeLuca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute.  "Obama increased his support among Democrats by five percent, while McCain increased his support among Republicans by three percent."

Obama is still struggling to connect with white voters, garnering only 31% of their votes, although that is an improvement over May's poll which had him at 27% among whites.  Obama is receiving 87% of support of African-American voters.

According to the Civitas turnout model, African Americans make up 18% of the electorate and white voters make up 86% (22% of the electorate in the state is African-American.) Looks to me Barack Obama has far more room to grow than John McCain does, and as each month passes, Obama has done just that. At the very least McCain is going to spend a ton of money to try to hold this newly purple state.

This week's newsletter includes another discussion about the Republican neglect of our infrastructure. Since I wrote it two more levees have failed, flooding Des Moines, which aren't included in my analysis. If you want to help the Midwest, you can go here.

Turning to the election, the attacks have begun in earnest. Republicans rolled out a whole slew of attacks against Barack and Michelle Obama...some borderline racist, some merely lies, and none all that effective. In most states Obama's popularity has surged such that if the election were held today, Obama would easily win with over 300 electoral votes, just like Senator Chuck Schumer predicts will happen. But keep in mind, this is just the first volley of attacks.