Yesterday I was able to see the Nevada caucuses up close at the Wynn Casino at-large caucus precinct location, one of nine locations on the strip set up to accommodate casino workers. As I didn't have wireless access, I called Jonathan with updates as I had them and he updated the caucus open thread, which you can follow HERE. Overall it was a fascinating glimpse into the very strange caucus system as well as an at times disturbing look at a physical manifestation of the Obama vs. Clinton dynamic that the race for the Democratic nomination has largely become.

The caucus was held in a ballroom in the Wynn Hotel with a few hundred chairs set up in front of a stage for caucus participants and a temporary riser set up in the opposite corner of the room for media to observe from afar. The orderly set up of the room and the strict rules established for the caucus certainly belied the chaos that was soon to come.

As the first wave of caucus-goers arrived, a busload from the Hilton Hotel, Obama supporters (conspicuously armed with Obama signs) seemed to far outnumber Clinton supporters. They trickled in and many sat down in the chairs at stage left. Since the signs sort of gave the Obama crowd away, as Clinton supporters entered they tended to gather in the chairs at stage right, across the aisle from the Obama supporters. It was fascinating to watch the room sort of organically split into two factions even before the actual caucusing began. As the caucus-goers at this location were by definition casino workers, most of whom were on break from their shifts to caucus, it was fascinating to see people grouped according to the uniforms they wore.

The media during this time largely milled about among the caucus-goers looking for stories. At one point, a mini Obama rally broke out at one end of the ballroom, a bit removed from the seating area, and you could see most of the media sort of swarm over to the rally. The rallyers wore red culinary union shirts, waved 'Culinary Workers for Obama' signs and chanted either "Obama! Obama!" or "Time For Change!" It was sort of interesting that, as many Obama supporters as there were in the room, only 12 or so participated in the rally, although the seated caucus-goers were not shy about chanting Obama's name either. There was one guy with a whistle who led those caucus-goers in loud "Obama" cheers.

About 15 minutes after the first caucus-goers arrived, the crowd had grown to well over 100 and a new wave of of Hillary Clinton supporters began to stream in. Many of them held "I Support My Union, I Support Hillary Clinton" signs and I asked them what union they were in; they replied "226." That's the Culinary Workers union. On more careful inspection, the signs were labeled "Paid for by Hillary Clinton For President." Remember all the talk of Culinary Workers caucusing for Clinton despite the union's endorsement? It was on full display in that ballroom yesterday, and indeed, their passion for their candidate was no less evident than that of Obama supporters. It wasn't long before the Obama rally was answered with chants of "Hillary! Hillary!" The groups at first held sort of dueling rallies, but then they just shouted over each other, but in what seemed like a healthy enthusiastic way, never did it become mean-spirited, although there may have been some booing. It was hard not to notice that the dueling factions were divided by more than just candidate preference; the culinary workers that were rallying for Obama were mostly African-American and mostly men and those that rallied for Clinton were mostly hispanic and mostly women. But again, the tension never escalated beyond what appeared to be a healthy enthusiasm for their candidate.

It was well into the caucus when it occured to me that my digital camera has a video function. I recorded a minute of the chaos that erupted, which you can watch for yourself below. Keep in mind that this all took place prior to the caucus officially coming to order. Also, notice just how much media was there.

It was fairly late in the process by the time the caucus meeting was brought to order, but the precinct chair finally sent the media off to our corner and began to separate the caucus-goers into more orderly groups, which ended up corresponding (geographically within the room) with where they had naturally settled on their own. A count of total caucus-goers was made and then the viability threshold of 79 votes (20% at our caucus location) was announced. Then the precinct chair announced the results of the first ballot: Clinton had the support of 185 caucus-goers, Obama 181, and Edwards 8, with 3 uncommitted. I was quite surprised, as the Obama side appeared larger to me than the Clinton side. After the realignment, the final count was 189 for Clinton to 187 for Obama, one of six slim victories on the strip for Clinton yesterday.

I left my first caucus experience with fairly mixed emotions about the whole process. First of all, I couldn't help but think, wow what a freak show, is this really the best way for our democracy to function? Not only was it chaotic and thus, it seemed to me, particularly susceptible to various forms of funny business (although I saw none myself,) but the very fact that a caucus takes place at a limited number of places at one pre- determined time is inherently an exercise in dis-enfranchisement. But at the same time, while usually we look to turnout numbers for an expression of the enthusiasm that exists among the electorate for the Democratic candidates, here it was on full display in all its glory. There's just something that seemed right about a process that allowed supporters of a candidate to express that support with more than a poke of a stylus or touch of a screen; here they were standing up, standing proud, shouting their support from the top of their lungs. Ultimately I still favor primaries, but there's something to a system that rewards a candidate for the ability to motivate and inspire the support I witnessed for Clinton and Obama yesterday.

From MSNBC's First Read:

The following delegates are allocated in the NV Democratic caucus:
Clinton -- 13
Obama -- 12

None remaining to be allocated.

The Obama campaign, via email, disagrees:

Senator Obama was awarded 13 delegates to Senator Clinton's 12.

A statement released under Obama's name reads as follows:

We came from over twenty-five points behind to win more national convention delegates than Hillary Clinton because we performed well all across the state, including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled.

Not quite sure what to make of this divergence. I'm trying to follow up and find out exactly what's up. At best for Clinton, it looks like there will be an overall tie between her and Obama in terms of pledged delegates, with 37 apiece for the two candidates. If the Obama campaign is to be believed, the Illinois Senator might still hold a 38 delegate to 36 delegate lead out of Nevada. More to come as I find out...

Update [2008-1-19 18:32:3 by Jonathan Singer]: I've gotten a confirmation from the Obama campaign that indeed they project winning 13 delegates to Clinton's 12 -- in effect a win even though the New York Senator won statewide. Ari Melber over at The Nation is reporting as much as well:

A current estimate of the national convention delegate count is below, though not all precincts have fully reported.

District 1 Clinton 3, Obama 3

District 2 (Washoe) Clinton 1, Obama 2

District 2 (Rural) Clinton 0, Obama 1

District 2 (Clark) Clinton 1, Obama 1

District 3 (Clark) Clinton 2, Obama 2

At-Large Clinton 2, Obama 1

PLEO Clinton 3, Obama 3

Very interesting stuff. If this is indeed a delegate battle (leaving aside for a moment issues of momentum, which are extremely important), this could actually be somewhat of a win for Obama. Interesting.

NBC News/MSNBC has just called Nevada for Hillary Clinton. Word has it that CNN has also called it for Clinton, as has the Associated Press.

Update [2008-1-19 16:24:9 by Jonathan Singer]: According to MSNBC's David Shuster, NBC News is projecting that Hillary Clinton will receive 14 delegates today to 12 for Barack Obama, putting the current spread at Clinton 38, Obama 37.

Update [2008-1-19 16:52:7 by Jonathan Singer]: Per Marc Ambinder, turnout for the Democratic caucuses "exceeds 100,000", more than doubling projections -- yet another GREAT omen for Democrats' chances come November.

Because actual numbers actually matter...

Hillary Clinton 50.75%
Barack Obama 45.12%
John Edwards 3.78%
Uncommitted 0.31%
Dennis Kucinich 0.04%

87.98 percent of precincts reporting

Update [2008-1-19 16:8:29 by Jonathan Singer]: The race has called been called for Clinton.

Nevada hasn't taken nearly as much importance on the Republican side as it has on the Democratic side, but early reports show Mitt Romney carrying the state with very strong support from Mormon voters in the state (LDS voters making up 25 percent of the electorate). Interestingly, at this point Ron Paul is running second in the contest on the basis of support from self-described independent voters (according to MSNBC). Democratic results should take some more time to come in...

Update [2008-1-19 16:28:27 by Jonathan Singer]: Hahahahahah. With more than 64 percent of precincts reporting, Ron Paul is indeed leading John McCain in Nevada. I'm sure that's great news for the McCain campaign, though...

Update [2008-1-19 16:31:42 by Jonathan Singer]: Also, with Rudy Giuliani barely staving off Duncan Hunter for the honor of not quite being in last place, I'm sure that's also great news for the Giuliani campaign...

Four percent today in Nevada.  Orginally, he was my first choice, but he lost credibility with the haircut, the house and the hedge fund.  He sounded too much like the angry trial lawyer and his message wound up being divisive instead of unifying.

With the economy possible heading into recession, one would think
Edwards' message would resonate now.  But he's slipped further and further.  I think this is because Hillary Clinton has emphasized economic issues, and it's paying off.

My forecast is for Edwards to call it quits after South Carolina next Saturday.  There's no leverage without delegates and single-digit percentages.

Todd is on the ground at one of the caucus locations on the strip in Vegas and unfortunately does not have internet access. But here are a few rumors that are apparently floating around inside the ballroom in the Wynn hotel, where Todd is located (consider with the requisite grain of salt as they are rumors...):

Apparently bomb sniffing dogs swept this at-large caucus location leading many to believe a candidate with secret service protection will be coming through shortly. Specifically, talk is that Obama will be making an appearance before heading to Chicago to catch the results from the state. Rumors are also that Clinton will be making a showing at the Luxor this morning before the caucuses.

Update [2008-1-19 14:20:39 by Jonathan Singer]: Per Todd, there are still more media in the hall than actual voters. The rush of voters is expected at 11:30 AM Pacific. Also, an observer from AFSCME, which is supporting Clinton, told Todd that he had heard workers were told the caucus location was only for Obama supporters, FWIW.

Update [2008-1-19 14:20:39 by Jonathan Singer]: Final Zogby/Reuters poll from Nevada: Clinton 45, Obama 39, Edwards 6 (that last number is a bit surprising, no?).

Update [2008-1-19 14:31:24 by Jonathan Singer]: Todd reports that a bus from the Hilton just arrived at the Wynn with many of its occupants wielding Obama signs. Note that voters can caucus within a 2 1/2 mile radius of where they work.

Update [2008-1-19 15:2:46 by Jonathan Singer]: From Todd: Dueling rallies for Clinton and Obama in the hall, with most in the Clinton camp Hispanic and most in the Obama camp African-American. While there seems to be a lot of support from Obama from the culinary workers local 226, there are some with 226 shirts and Clinton stickers. And roughly 125 or so caucus-goers are at the Luxor.

Update [2008-1-19 15:24:27 by Jonathan Singer]: According to Todd, things are a bit disorganized at the Wynn, with many more continuing to file in while others worry that the hour that they took off beginning at 11:30 will run out before the caucuses are over. No indication yet as to whether folks will stay for the duration of the event or not.

Update [2008-1-19 15:39:18 by Jonathan Singer]: Todd reports that the viability threshold at the Wynn is actually 20 percent rather than 15. Not sure if this is a trend around the state or only at the Luxor...

Update [2008-1-19 15:49:31 by Jonathan Singer]: Reporting on the ground at the Wynn hotel, Todd informs us that Clinton had the support of 185 caucus-goers, Obama 181, and Edwards 8, with 3 uncommitted. That means that the results from this location will come down to how those last 11 non-Obama and non-Clinton supporters caucus. Todd also notes that word has it that although conventional wisdom had the Strip going to Obama, the results may be cutting in the opposite direction.

Update [2008-1-19 15:59:1 by Jonathan Singer]: Final count from the Wynn, 189 for Clinton to 187 for Obama, per Todd, who is now heading over to the media center over at UNLV.

I'll be updating this thread as I hear more from Todd. For now while we wait for some more updates and actual numbers from the caucuses, feel free to consider this an open thread... What's on your mind?

The Nevada caucuses are about as difficult a contest to poll as far as things come -- the caucuses are a new development, we have little idea what turnout will look like, etc. -- but that isn't stopping at least a handful of pollsters from making a stab at determining the current support enjoyed by each candidate. A Research 2000 poll in the field over the weekend showed Barack Obama holding a narrow 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards also within striking distance, while an American Research Group survey conducted over a similar period of time had Clinton up three on Obama, with Edwards similarly within striking range. Now a new Mason-Dixon poll, the exact details of which are still yet to come, shows Clinton leading Obama by a wider 9-point margin.

Again, it's hard to put too much faith in any Nevada survey given the difficulties entailed in polling such a contest. That said, the take away point from all of this data is this: There is very much still a race on our hands in the Silver State, one that we don't know how will turn out at this point and won't until the results come piling in Saturday afternoon.