John Edwards is helping elect D-WFP Congressional candidates Mike Arcuri, Eric Massa and Kirsten Gillibrand. John and the WFP have recorded robocalls that are going out to voters in NY-24, NY-29 and NY-20. With all the coverage of negative robocalls, I wanted to share these positive calls. Listen to all three:
New Yorkers can vote for D-WF candidates on the WFP's ballot line, Row E. Your vote still counts to elect the candidate you vote for, and you can vote your values.
A tricky blend of climatic conditions triggered almost 2 feet of heavy, wet lake effect snow Thursday and Friday, bringing Buffalo and much of western New York to a standstill.
"I've personally never seen anything this bad," said Chuck Tingley, a 60-year-old meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Buffalo.
I grew up in western / central New York. I was born in Rochester, from the age of five I was raised in a suburb of Syracuse, and virtually my entire extended family hails from small western New York towns such as Batavia and Albion. About the only time the area ever makes national news is when we are buried by large snowstorms. Such storms happen fairly frequently, although it seems like we are able to break some sort of snowfall record at least every other year.
Recently, a different type of storm is also settling into western and central New York, and this storm is colored blue. Once, this was the area of the state that produced the backbone of the Republican majority in the State Senate. It produced political figures such as Jack Kemp and George Pataki. Barry Goldwater's running mate, Bill Miller, even hailed from the region. Just two years ago, only one of our seven congressional districts, the NY-28, was held by a Democrat. For as long as I can remember, all of my family and friends have thought of the area as conservative. Of course, they all grew up in the area, and for most of their lives it has been pretty conservative. I'm sure that quite a few Democrats downstate think of central and western New York as conservative enclaves holding the rest of the state back (that is, when they think of central and western New York at all). However, that image is about to change. Consider the following electoral developments:
While New York City is producing conservative and LieberDem icons such as Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Guiliani, western and central New York is starting to produce strong progressive leaders such as Louise Slaughter.
In the 2004 cycle, only six Republican-held seats switched to Democrats. One was the NY-27 in western New York. Now that he is in Congress, the only serious challenge Brian Higgins, the new Democratic Representative, will ever face comes from redistricting due to population loss, not from Republicans.
In the NY-26, the district where both of my parents and all four of my grandparents were born, Jack Davis was ahead of Tom Reynolds, the NRCC chair, even before the Foley scandal hit. This was despite Reynolds raising thirty times the amount of money Davis raised, and despite millions of dollars in Reynolds TV ads that never once mentioned Reynolds was a Republican.
The NY-24 is the district long-held by retiring Republican moderate Sherwood Boehlert. Now, the only independent polls in the district show Democrat Michael Arcuri ahead by double digits.
That leaves only three more "red" districts in western and central New York: NY-23, NY-25 and NY-29. Both the NY-25, with Democrat Dan Maffei, and the NY-29, with Democrat Eric Massa, are under serious blue assault. Jim Walsh, whose father also represented that district, is almost certainly the last Republican the NY-25 will ever elect.
Even with the House of Representatives aside, the New York State Senate is on the brink of finally flipping as well, and one of the main reason is that no Republican incumbent is safe in western and central New York. For example, although she was a Democrat when I voted for her, the only Republican I ever voted for, turncoat Nancy Lorraine Hoffman, lost her State Senate seat in 2004. Good riddance.
There are few regions of the country turning blue as quickly as central and western New York. Luckily for me, one of those regions is the Philadelphia suburbs. This presents me with a unique opportunity.
I am about to embark on an insane adventure. Starting today, Saturday, October 14th, I will spend the next eight days traveling to the seven congressional districts where I have lived, but that are currently held by Republicans: NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (Dan Maffei), NY-26 (Jack Davis), NY-29 (Eric Massa), PA-06 (Lois Murphy), PA-07 (Joe Sestak), and PA-08 (Patrick Murphy). In addition to blogging the trip as I go, I will do anything I can to help Democrats win these seven districts. If that means phone banking, then that means I will phone bank. If that means canvassing, that means I will canvass. If that means standing outside in the snow and holding up signs for passing cars, I will do that too. Whatever it takes, I will do it. No more chit-chat--it is time to turn my homeland blue. The trip starts tonight, as I fly into Rochester on the invitation of my brother Mark. Tomorrow and Monday, Mark will be my traveling partner as we head out to volunteer and blog for Michael Arcuri, Dan Maffei, Jack Davis, and Eric Massa.
As I write on the page, I left off people who are currently behind because I wanted to give folks an easy way to reward those who are surging ahead. That doesn't mean you shouldn't help others join the blue wave! It just seemed like we should reward those who have been doing good.
The Working Families Party is knocking on doors in New York's 24th Congressional District, and we've opened phonebanks in Ithaca and Auburn as well as New York City (if you're nearby then come make calls with us).
The polls confirm what our on-the-ground experiences are telling us: Mike Arcuri is winning his race for an open Congressional seat in New York's 24th Congressional District.
For a Republican, Sherwood Boehlert wasn't that horrendous. But his voting record wasn't something to cheer about. Yes, he's definitely to the left of Vlad the Impaler (especially on abortion, the environment and on education issues) but he was usually worse than Lieberman, worse than Jim Marshall, worse than Melissa Bean... worse than the most reactionary Democrat in either House-- much worse. The last of an already dead breed, Rockefeller Republicans, Boehlert, first elected in 1982, has long been rumored to be sick of the right-wing nut cases who have taken control of his party (I mean imagine being the chairman of the House Science Committee with these kooks and religionist fanatics in charge!!) and ready to retire. Friday he did.
BELOW THE FOLD: Mike Arcuri can make this a Democratic seat!
byNonpartisan, Sun Apr 30, 2006 at 01:19:46 PM EST
This title shouldn't be perceived as an attack on Michael. I like Michael; I like his passion, and respect his analysis, and appreciate that he doesn't devolve into the namecalling that so frequently characterizes the Emanuel threads. But I think his most recent diary, which I recommended, raises a very important question. I don't agree with Michael's answer, but I think the issue deserves the kind of reasoned response that I will now attempt to provide.
What I will attempt to show in this diary is that, while I personally dislike Rahm Emanuel, he's doing a reasonably good job as DCCC head; that there are in fact circumstances in which it's appropriate for the DCCC to get involved in a primary; and that the Duckworth-Cegelis situation was a catastrophic blunder on Emanuel's part, but an anomaly, not a part of a larger trend as Michael sees it. I'll explain on the flip.
Before Christmas I wrote a diary trying to crystal ball gaze the congressional races in New York. Now that Boehlert has announced his retirement I think it is a good time to revisit New York to assess Dem chances of picking up some Repub districts.
By almost all accounts, it appears GOP Congressman Sherwood Boehlert will retire this year, potentially making his competitive upstate New York district ripe for the picking for the Dems. But Boehlert is not the only House Republican on the brink of retirement. Just ask NRCC chair Tom Reynolds.
The Hill's e-News email service reports this week that Reynolds, who heads up the GOP campaign to keep control of the U.S. House, is all but predicting more members of his party's caucus will retire rather than seek reelection this fall.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.) expects a few more GOP retirements between now the November elections.
"I want our members to stay put," Reynolds told a group of reporters Thursday during an afternoon briefing. "That being said, retirements will and do happen...I expect a couple more."
While this is far from the potential 10 to 15 additional GOP retirements reported by The Hill's Peter Savodnik earlier this month, it is nevertheless quite noteworthy for such a well-connected Republican to concede that more of his compatriots would rather give up the power and prestige of the House than have to face voters again. Just how concerned are these folks about the chances they would be sent home in ignominy were they to appear on the ballot this November?
Surely it can't be the case that all of these Republicans are retiring simply to move on to higher paying lobbying gigs. No, there's something blowing in the wind these days. Even if the well-known political handicappers don't notice, many House Republicans do, and are, as a result, running for the hills rather than for another term. So I ask once again: do the Washington insiders still actually believe that the Democrats don't have a shot at retaking the House in November?
