After their third special election loss in a row, Republican House leaders set up a 6-member panel to figure out what Republicans were doing wrong and what they need to do better moving forward to improve their chances in November. On Thursday, House leaders met to discuss their findings.

This observation struck me as particularly, well, spot on:

While the review said the national political environment was largely to blame for the losses, it also said Republican candidates themselves were less than optimal and their campaigns were flawed.

Understatement of the year.

And then there was this:

House Republicans lost three recent elections when customary campaign themes failed to sway voters and their candidates could not overcome the "negative perception of the national party," according to an internal review that underscores the potential for widespread losses this fall.

Umm, ya think?

But what's even richer is their prescription for what ails them:

GOP candidates on the ballot in November must show "deep empathy towards the voters" and rely on local rather than national issues, according to the report, ordered by party leaders after the loss of formerly safe seats in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi that stunned the rank and file.

In other words, pretend to give a shit. But that is a particularly uphill battle when all evidence is to the contrary. After all, it's the Republicans who vote against expanding healthcare for poor children, against college benefits for returning veterans, against an increase in the minimum wage and against the extension of unemployment insurance benefits for those hardest hit by the economic downturn. They actually don't care and voters know it.

What makes this even sweeter is that Democrats chose yesterday, the day the Republicans were wallowing in their own failure, to shoot a warning shot across the bow:

House Republicans on Thursday reviewed the defeats as Democrats signaled an intention to spend heavily in three competitive seats in New York, Oregon and Colorado. Officials said the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had reserved a combined $4 million worth of television advertising time.

The races in question:

The DCCC has reserved $2.1 million for advertising for a seat in New York City in which Republican Rep. Vito Fossella intends to retire. Fossella, who is married with children, recently acknowledged fathering a child out of wedlock.

Democrats also said they will spend $1.2 million in the Portland, Ore., area, hoping to hold the seat of Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley, who is retiring.

The third target is the seat held by Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, where Democrats said they had reserved nearly $700,000 in advertising time.

Flaunting our financial advantage and kicking them while they're down. Love it.

In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms.  But so far, it's been all over the map.  I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.

First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill.  They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.

Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.

In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois's 14th district, Louisiana's 6th district, Mississippi's 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

These rankings are posted on Campaign Diaries.

Coming home from a field shoot in Manhattan yesterday, I was on the subway where I engaged in a conversation with a guy, about my age, who was working as a Democratic operative in the New York area canvassing for the party.

In the forty minutes that we talked on the A train from Broadway/Nassau Street to Rockaway Blvd, we discussed this year's campaign, from the Iraq war, to healthcare, to the eocnomy, gas prices, Congressional elections, Mississippi-01, Louisiana-06, and so on. What we never really touched, was the primary fight. Not one argument ensured over Hillary vs. Obama. It was just taken by my new friend that the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, will win.

As I got off the train at Rockaway Blvd, I asked him what he thought of the primary fight. I asked him what he thought of the people on the blogs who say they won't vote for Obama if Hillary doesn't win. His response made me think;

Well, it was looking as though NY-13 Republican Congressman Vito Fossella, who had been arrested for a DWI and subsequently was revealed to have been leading a double life, was going to defiantly run for re-election in the fall. According to Survey USA, he had the people behind him: 61% of NY-13 voters polled said he should remain in office through this term and 53% said he should run again in November. Despite this vote of confidence, however, it looks like leadership has concluded that Fossella would be more liability than asset in November and has successfully pushed him aside (no one really buys Boehner's claims on Meet The Press that no pressure was being exerted on him, do they?)

Vito writes letters:

To the Constituents of the 13th Congressional District:

After a great deal of consideration, I have made the decision not to seek re-election to the United States House of Representatives this November. This choice was an extremely difficult one, balanced between my dedication to service to our great nation and the need to concentrate on healing the wounds that I have caused to my wife and family...

After Fossella's troubles, Cook Political Report shifted NY-13 to toss-up status. The situation is slightly different now that the ethically-challenged Fossella won't be on the ballot in November, but I suspect that rating won't change since it's a D+1 district. In 2008 and in a district that encompasses parts of Brooklyn, you gotta favor an unnamed Democrat over an unnamed Republican for this seat.  

As for who is likely to run for the seat, the Republicans actually have a fairly strong potential candidate in Staten Island D.A. Dan Donovan.

From TPM:

Minority Leader John Boehner and NRCC head Tom Cole have both contacted Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan about potentially running for the seat. Donovan currently serves about four fifths of the district and was re-elected with 68% of the vote in 2007, so he could be a very strong candidate.

Donovan is playing it cool for now, though. "Obviously everyone's waiting to see what the Congressman does, so we would pretty much take it form there," Donovan communications director William J. Smith told TPM Election Central. "The D.A. hasn't decided that he would be a candidate even if there was a vacancy, so obviously he would wait for the Congressman to make a decision."

We'll know more after Thursday, once the borough Republican party has interviewed prospective candidates.

On the Democratic side, the situation is a bit murkier. While New York City Councillor Domenic Recchia has the most money, NY-13 Blog anticipates his dropping out if he has to face a primary fight. Which may leave progressive Democrat Stephen Harrison, who has less money but seems to have more organization in place. The magic date here is June 3 when ballot petitioning begins.

It's over for Vito Fossella and the NY-13 is about to be open to a special election, according to WNBC.

It can't be fun to be Tom Cole who, as chair of the NRCC, has the unenviable task of electing Republicans to the House of Representatives. Hell, already in 2008 he's lost 2 seats and it's not even November yet. On his watch so far this cycle, the committee has been plagued by recruiting failures, anemic fundraising and yes, every now and then, a good old fashioned bout of bad luck.

Enter NY-13's Vito Fossella, a moderate Republican representing NY-13, a D+1 district that encompasses Brooklyn and Staten Island, who until 2 weeks ago had been listed as likely to retain his seat by the Cook Political Report. And then, as Jonathan reported on Thursday, Vito got arrested.

The Politico picks up the story.

Fossella was arrested last Thursday in Virginia, with a blood alcohol level of 0.17 -- over twice the legal limit in the state. If found guilty, he would have to serve five days in jail, an outcome analysts said could present major political problems.

"The prospect of jail time would make it very hard for him to run again," said Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman. "The difference between serving jail time and pleading down to a lesser charge makes a huge difference in Fossella's political future."

Ah, but if only his problems stopped there. WaPo's The Sleuth:

According to May 1 police report, a copy of which was obtained by the Sleuth, Fossella told police he was on his way to pick up his sick daughter at her home in Alexandria and take her to the hospital. But the next day at a news conference, Fossella said he was driving to the suburbs in the wee hours of the morning to see friends.

Fossella was specific with the arresting officer about where he was headed. He gave a street name where he said he was picking up his daughter. That street, it turns out, is the same street where retired Lt. Col. Laura Fay lives with her three-year-old daughter. Fay, according to the New York Daily News, picked up Fossella from the police station.

The nut of Fossella's real problem here:

Fossella, who has three children with his wife, Mary Pat, changed his story a few times about why he left a Dupont Circle area bar, the Logan Tavern, and drove across the river to the Virginia suburbs.

Which is why all the buzz is that Fossella is likely to announce fairly soon that he won't run for re-election this fall.

GOP political insiders say Fossella, whose blood-alcohol content was more than twice the legal limit when he was busted at 12:15 a.m. last Thursday, stands little chance of running for reelection at this point, and their Democratic counterparts agree. Buzz on the Hill and around town Wednesday was that Fossella would be announcing sooner rather than later that he won't seek another term in what has quickly become a hotly contested seat for embattled Republicans. Fossella was not voting in the House Wednesday.

Which puts NY-13 challenger Democrat Steve Harrison, who is among those Dem challengers who have endorsed the Responsible Plan by the way, in the spotlight. We'll have to see who the Republicans nominate in Fossella's stead of course, before we have a real sense of whether Harrison is likely to translate Fossella's troubles into a Democratic victory in November, but if nothing else, this is yet another reason why we challenge everywhere.

For more on the race check out a blog named, unsubtly, NY13 blog; Retaking NY-13 From Vito Fossella. Also, hat tip to The Albany Project for Harrison's Act Blue page link. Go throw a few bones Harrison's way if you can. Virtually overnight this race has entered, at worst, toss-up territory.

From The Washington Post:

Rep. Vito J. Fossella (R-N.Y.) was arrested overnight in Alexandria and charged with driving while intoxicated, court records showed today.

Fossella is scheduled to appear in Alexandria General District Court on May 12 for an advisement hearing, the records said.

No other details were immediately available.

[...]

Fossella was elected to Congress in a special election to represent the 13th Congressional District of New York in November 1997, according to a biography on his Web site. The district includes Staten Island and the Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and the Bensonhurst and Gravesend neighborhoods of Brooklyn.

Being arrested for a DUI isn't necessarily a political death-knell for an incumbent -- but neither is it terribly good news, particularly when that incumbent is potentially vulnerable. Fossella won reelection in 2006 with about 57 percent of the vote, so he isn't necessarily in terrible shape coming into this election cycle. However, New York's 13th congressional district, which he represents, tends to lean about 1 point more Democratic than the nation as a whole in presidential elections, so this year being a presidential election year doesn't augur particularly well for Fossella's hopes. Throw in a DUI and this race may now be on the map.

At this point, there are a couple of Democrats looking at this race: 2006 nominee Steve Harrison and Brooklyn City Commissioner Domenic Recchia. Recchia, in particular, looks like a formidable candidate, having raised more than $350,000 to this point. In fact, Recchia has more in the bank than Fossella as of the last filing period. So definitely chalk this up as one to keep an eye on...