I hope everyone had a great 4th of July. Jacob saw his first real fireworks display and loved it at first. We were watching from the 12th floor of a building right on the waterfront, so it was spectacular. Unfortunately, he was coming down with a fever and by the end was pretty unhappy. He is fine again now.

This was a big week, both locally where my friend qualified for the ballot for NYC's Sept. 9th primary election, and nationally where Obama's surge continued even as the Democrats once again showed less spine than we would like them to. More below.

It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

Quinnipiac University, The Washington Post and The Wall St. Journal have released their new "Battleground State" polls and, well, let's just say they might need to redefine their terms. Certainly by 2004 standards, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota would be classic battleground states. Colorado went for Bush 52-47, Michigan went for Kerry 51-48, Minnesota went for Kerry 51-48 and Wisconsin barely went for Kerry 50-49.

We're not in 2004 anymore.

Colorado (1351 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.7%)

Obama 49
McCain 44

Michigan (1411 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.6%)

Obama 48
McCain 42

Minnesota (1572 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)

Obama 54
McCain 37

Wisconsin (1537 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)

Obama 52
McCain 39

Obama is overperforming Kerry in Colorado by 10%, in Michigan by 3%, in Minnesota by 14% and in Wisconsin by 12%. The keys: Obama wins independents in every single state (by double digits in three of them) and holds onto 2004 Kerry voters much better than McCain holds onto Bush voters.

If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, the least Obama will do...should do...this year is hold onto Kerry states. If pollsters want to test true battlegrounds in 08, they'd be well-advised to put polls into the field in states that went for Bush in 04 such as Virginia and Ohio, certainly moreso than some of the tight Kerry states such as Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Last month, a lot of folks became worried when they saw that freshman Republican Senator Norm Coleman of Minnesota had jumped to a 7-point lead over his Democratic challenger Al Franken. One month later, however, a survey from the same pollster that Coleman moving upward and Franken moving downward shows a statistically tied race. Here's Rasmussen Reports:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Minnesota shows Senator Norm Coleman (R) attracting 47% of the vote while challenger Al Franken earns 45% support.

A month ago, Coleman was ahead 50% to 43%. Rasmussen Reports has polled this race five times and Coleman has had at least a modest edge four times (including the last three). However, the Senator has reached the 50% level of support just once in those five polls. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is generally considered vulnerable.

[...]

Coleman earns 91% support from Republican voters while Franken gets the vote from 76% of Democrats. Those figures are little changed from a month ago. However, Coleman's lead among unaffiliated voters--down to nine percentage points--has been cut in half over the past month. Franken benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Minnesota.

There's a lot in these numbers that should have the GOP worried. To begin, Franken has not yet seen the Democratic base coalesce around him -- something that he has a relatively long time to accomplish before election day.

But more fundamentally, if the Coleman isn't able to take a lead and hold it at a time when Franken has sustained a whole lot of hits in the media, is he ever going to be able to? Had some of the stories that the right wing has trumpeted in recent weeks come up for the first time in the fall rather than in the spring, it might have been difficult for Franken to rebound. However, at least according to Rasmussen polling, Franken is already back well within striking distance.

There remains a whole lot of work to be done in this race. But at this point, with Franken still within the margin of error of Coleman, the Republicans can't be too pleased.

Obama is rock solid in Minnesota. Obama will have nothing to worry about in MN.
Even with Pawlenty on their ticket.

''A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found that Barack Obama leads John McCain 51 percent to 38 percent among the state's registered voters. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the Arizona senator 49 percent to 40 percent''.

The republicans said this week they will target MN in their strategy this fall.
Even with their convention - it is very safe for Obama.

There is a strong trend now and you can see that in Oregon.
Where Obama does exceedingly well in states that have strong German/Nordic roots.

Here is hoping the Obama surge in MN can translate as coattails for Franken's bid for the senate. He is slipping in the polls as of late. www.alfranken.com/

http://www.startribune.com/politics/nati onal/president/19043139.html?location_re fer=Art

Update [2008-5-17 18:46:16 by MissVA]: Gore Vidal: ''I knew JFK, says Gore Vidal, and believe me Obama’s the better leader'' http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/article3952774.ece

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Requiring proof-of-citizenship in order to register to vote is the latest addition to voter suppression arsenal. Spurred by Arizona's 2004 implementation of proof of citizenship requirements and the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to uphold Indiana's strict voter ID law, proof of citizenship bills - often coupled with voter ID - are gaining traction across the country. With more than 13 million Americans lacking ready access to citizenship documentation and scant evidence of voter registration fraud by non-citizens (or any voter for that matter) leading to illegal votes, proof of citizenship requirements could have a significant impact on the electorate. Wasting no time after the high court's decision, the neighboring states of Kansas and Missouri have swiftly moved forward with efforts to pass such legislation that could take effect in the November election.

I am proud to report that I have seen the future of Minnesota and his name is Ashwin Madia. Last weekend I was invited by my friend Chris to come down to Plymouth and watch the convention. I wasn't quite sure what to except; I certainly liked what I had heard about Ashwin, but I still had no experience with him.