And the flies just keep on dropping. Today, Congressman Mike Ferguson of New Jersey's 7th district (PVI R+1) announced he'll be retiring at the end of his term to spend more time with his family. Blue Jersey has his full statement.

Ferguson makes the 17th GOP retirement of the year and may be the most unexpected one yet. The Cook Political Report's Competitive House Race Chart listed the 2008 race for the seat as highly competitive (although "Leans Republican") due to the partisan make-up of the district and the close race Ferguson had against Linda Stender last year (he won by under 2%) but it was not on any potential open seat list. This had to be a heartbreaker for the NRCC.

Stender is running again this year (placeholder site is HERE) so expect this to be shifted to the "Toss-up" category, but while it's an excellent pick-up opportunity for the Democrats, Stender could very well have a top-tier challenger in Thomas Keane Jr., who ran for Senate last year.

From NJ Politicker:

Senate Minority Leader-designate Thomas Kean, Jr. becomes one of the most likely GOP candidates for the seat. Kean, the Republican U.S. Senate in 2006, was among the candidates who ran against Ferguson in the 7th district Republican primary in 2000, when Bob Franks gave up the seat to run for the Senate.

Between the retirement of Jim Saxton in NJ's 3rd and now Ferguson in the 7th, we have a real opportunity to firm up our hold on the Northeast and shift New Jersey's congressional delegation from 7D-6R to a split more in keeping with the voting habits of the state.

Cross-posted from Blue Jersey

With the announcements that neither Chris Christie or Mike Ferguson will challenge Senator Frank Lautenberg in 2008, the Republicans' chances to take that seat are very weak. This is not because Christie or Ferguson are better candidates than Senator Lautenberg -- they're not (especially Ferguson, who knows he cannot win statewide). Rather, these were the two candidates with the ability to raise the kind of money that is required for a competitive statewide contest.

Think about it: a total of $35 million went into the 2006 race between Senator Menendez and Tom Kean, Jr. Governor Corzine has spent tens of millions on his two statewide runs. The media markets are expensive and so is the field operation. Only certain people can raise this kind of money, and none of them are in this race.

Lautenberg has to be happy with this news. Just last month, Chuck Todd rated Lautenberg as the 10th most vulnerable incumbent Senator:

Despite Republicans' dismal track record over the past 30 years, they never completely punt on Senate races here. But there's a big difference between keeping a race technically "competitive" and actually winning.

Everyone thought Lautenberg would go into this race with an advantage, but who knew it'd be this big? The departures of Christie and Ferguson make his choice to seek re-election an even easier one. (Chuck Schumer basically confirmed that Lautenberg is running earlier this week.)

Still, others might find Lautenberg's good fortune to be somewhat disappointing: Reps. Rob Andrews, Frank Pallone, Rush Holt, Steve Rothman, and Bill Pascrell. It's not that they bear ill will toward their senior Senator, but they were hopeful he'd opt out of running again. They, like Menendez once did, have been building their warchests to best position themselves to move up to the Senate, and with Lautenberg's re-election, they will likely ride the bench until 2014.

But our ambitious representatives should look on the bright side: their loss can be the House Democrats' gain. If it becomes clear early on that their Republican challengers are merely nominal (as they were in 2006), the 'Use It or Lose It' campaign can be kicked into gear. In 2006, NJ candidates had less than three weeks to benefit from 'Use It or Lose It' -- this time they can have more than three months. This will bolster candidates in New Jersey's 7th, 5th, and 3rd districts. It will put Republicans on the defensive in a year they want to spend attacking Democratic freshman.

As with Republicans statewide, money is an extremely important qualification for Democratic candidates in these districts. In the 7th, Linda Stender lost by a point, so the DCCC and other national organizations will be back to help her. But for candidates in the 5th and 3rd where Democrats lost by 11 and 17 points, the DCCC will not be rushing to their aid. Early money from safe Democrats may be their best chance to succeed.

Luckily for them, Lautenberg is holding his seat down, and there should be plenty of money to go around. New Jersey's Congressional Democrats should remember that they'll have another 6 years to build their warchests, but only so much time to expand their caucus.

Twice today in Hillsborough New Jersey, Mike Ferguson refused to face his own constituents and ran when we showed up at has campaign stops.  See the extended text for images of the supporters

We're gaining steam here in NJ7, and even the Republicans are admitting that this race is tightening.  The most popular political news and gossip site in the state, PoliticsNJ.com, yesterday called the race a tossup.

Democratic and Republican sources say that internal polling from both sides show the race for Congress in New Jersey's seventh congressional district to be tightening. That confirms a Majority Watch independent poll that has GOP Congressman Michael Ferguson leading Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender by a 46%-43% margin -- a statistical dead heat. Stender, who has raised $1.8 million and has won endorsements from the Star-Ledger, the New York Times, the Courier-News and the Hunterdon County Democrat, is also touting a new endorsement from actor Michael J. Fox. According, PoliticsNJ.com has moved this race -- for at least the next 48 hours -- into the Toss Up column.

So far our campaign here has received seven newspaper endorsements and is sweeping the daily newspapers.  The Mike Ferguson (R-NJ7) campaign has, sadly, not a single endorsement.

There are a host of moderate-ish right-wingers in trouble in the Northeast, and they are for lack of a better word freaking out.  Joe Lieberman is the most prominent, and even kiss-ass columnist David Broder calls him angry in his most recent column ('Lieberman is an exhausted veteran, barely able to conceal his irritation at having to fight for a seat he feels that he owns.')  But there are others.  Connecticut Congresscritters Rob Simmons, Chris Shays, and Nancy Johnson are not just in danger of losing, they are incredibly angry that they are facing challenges from the left.  

Sue Kelly in New York's 19th, facing a stiff challenge from John Hall, is really upset, as is Randy Kuhl in the 29th of New York.    I'm sure Mike Ferguson, in New Jersey's 7th, is irritated he has to face a competitive challenge from Linda Stender, and the Pennsylvania Specter Republicans are also frustrated.  

Republicans have had a structural advantage in elections because Democrats in blue states will often cross over to vote for a Republican they like, whereas in much of the solid red South, Republicans will not support Democrats for Federal office.  That crossover vote is now dying in the Northeast, as voters are connecting the right-wing war to the increased costs of fuel, housing, education, health care, and increased income disparities.  

Moderate Republicans are used to having it both ways.  They get to be in the majority, sit on powerful committees, and yet the also are feted by groups like the Sierra Club or NARAL, depending on which issue they pretend to buck their leadership on.  Rarely do they face challenges.  They like living in Washington, they like the junkets and they like being called 'Congressman' and having their egos managed by lobbyists and staffers.  Many of them don't want to live at home in a piddly law practice or in retirement, and that's why they are still doing what they do.

That's their motivation, and why they are lashing out so viciously and belying their moderate image.  This cycle, the dynamic is so different, and these candidates are confused and irritated.  They are being made to work.  'How dare you!  The nerve!' is the operative slogan.  I don't have much to offer beyond this insight.  These aren't moderates, they are just entited, bratty childish power-worshippers.  And appealing and charismatic challengers are forcing many of them to work for the first time in a long time.  Good times.

Last week a letter to the editor ran from a 14 year old girl named Lindsey Rosenthal from Belle Mead.  Lindsey has juvenile diabetes, and tried to talk with Mike Ferguson about supporting embryonic stem cell research to find a cure.  Ferguson's staff would not let her, saying that "we cannot even discuss this issue with him because it is against 'pro life.'"

That's right.  He refused to talk with a 14 year old girl about finding a cure for her lifelong disease.  Well, Lindsey recorded a radio ad for Linda Stender, and you can listen to it right now.

After you listen, remember that Ferguson is the same man who told Tricia Riccio that her paralyzed son would never walk again and refused to discuss embryonic stem cell research with her as well.  This race is about a lot of things, but one of the biggest is that Mike Ferguson wants to prevent Lindsey Rosenthal and Carl Riccio from receiving cures to their ailments because of a theory.  When we vote him out, we bring these two young people hope and maybe a cure.

The majority of Mike Ferguson's (R-NJ7) campaign to date has been to say, "Stender is a Spender, Stender is a Spender, Stender is a Spender" over and over and over again.  His campaign manager, who we assume is actually Dr. Seuss, appears to instruct his candidate to run away from President Bush, never talk about embryonic stem cell research and for goodness sake avoid the hell out of talking about abortion, contraceptives and women's rights.

After a long night of hard work and consideration, Campaign Manager Seuss has come up with yet another way to distract the public from Ferguson's right wing record.  And we have a photo!

Last week we learned that Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-NJ7) had taken $3,000 in campaign cash from Rep. Mark Foley, a Congressman who used his power and authority to engage in cybersex with underage teenage boys.

Of course, just taking money from one sexual deviant doesn't mean anything.  I mean, Foley gave money to a lot of different people.

What if it is two?