2024.5 delegates needed to nominate. That's the Obama line. It's also the current DNC line, I think. Most everyone in the Republican owned media is spouting the same line. The trouble is, that's significantly less than half the delegates that States and Territories will send to the Democratic National Convention. So, I'm wondering why anyone thinks it's such a great idea, and I hope those of you who do can clear this up for me.
I've been a Democrat for a very long time, and thus far I don't believe I've ever seen such a risky idea being pushed so hard by so many of my fellow Democrats.
As I recall (and I may be wrong about this), way back at the 1960 Democratic National Convention, John Kennedy just barely won the party nomination at the end of the third roll call when Wyoming cast its votes for him. In other words, after a very hard and prolonged fight on the floor of the convention, he was nominated by the slimmest of party majorities, just barely more than half the delegates sent to the convention. He agreed to put Lyndon Johnson on the ticket to appeal to southern Democrats and unify the party. That November, these two awesome Democratic Party candidates together managed to eke out the slimmest general election victory in history against a Republican that few Democrats thought fit to be President. And some Republicans still maintain that they won it only because Richard Daley got a fair number of dead people to vote for the brilliant, charming young Irish Catholic war hero from Massachusetts with the beautiful young wife and family. Now, just imagine how many more dead people Mayor Daley (and other mayors all around the USA) might have needed to get to vote for JFK if the Democratic Party had stupidly nominated JFK with only about 45% of its delegates voting for him at the Convention.
Main Stream Media has been grossly exaggerating Hillary Clinton's position in the race for the democratic nomination. They have oft been quoted as saying that the magic number is 2024 and that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama can reach this number without the aid of superdelegates (or automatic delegates, depending on which way you're spinning). This argument is flawed in two respects. The first: the current total delegate counts have Obama at 1571 delegates and Clinton at 1470 (according to DemConWatch, but varies slightly depending on who you choose to get your numbers from) with 599 delegates remaining. Speaking purely mathematically, it is possible for both Obama and Hillary to reach the "Magic Number" via the pledged delegates. It is not likely, as he would have to win about 76% of the remaining delegates in every state left (a large margin even by his blowout standards), and Hillary would need to win a whopping 92.5% (if Mississippi splits evenly her required margins increase to 95%). The second flaw in this argument is the fact that it is hypocritical in its composure. Both Obama and Hillary's current totals, and more importantly the ultimate goal post, already factor superdelegates into the equation: 203 and 244, respectively, and 795 for the total. The MSM is trying to frame the discussion about who can run up the majority of pledged delegates while using the superdelegate mile markers. To put this into perspective: in order to get to 2024 if superdelegates had no say whatsoever (which they technically do not) up until Denver, the victor would have to win a pinch more than 62% of the vote, which is obviously a good deal more than a simple majority. This becomes problematic when trying to describe who has won in terms of popular opinion, because the number make it seem like NEITHER candidate has. A few minutes thought can poke the holes in this presentation, seeing as there are only two candidates in this contest, and one has a significant lead, so one must be holding a majority opinion by pure logic.
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