Marc Ambinder reports;

A rule of sorts for this blog: don't cite partisan polls. I'm going to make an exception for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's latest survey of Mississippi voters. They give former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) an eight point lead over Republican incumbent Roger Wicker. Even if the DSCC were inclined to fudge the poll (or their pollster was) -- no evidence that they have or will, but I'm just saying -- they wouldn't show their candidate in the lead by that much. Expectations are raised -- and if future polls consistently show Musgrove behind Wicker, we'll know that (a) the DSCC poll was misleading or (b) Wicker has regained a lead. The DSCC poll is consistent with Democratic energy in the state, with Republican pessimism, and with Musgrove's broad popularity.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/05/ms_sen_dscc_poll_shows_musg rov.php

   Hillary Clinton's win in West VA is a good win for her. Though I wonder now if the Clinton supporters will stop the bullshit argument that Obama victories in red states don't matter, as Hillary supporters are certainly offended at the notion that West VA is meaningless. I'm glad they don't like it so much, so hopefully that garbage won't be spouted any more.

  Now on to another Hillary argument made in recent days that has been clearly disproven. That is the argument that Obama would be a detriment to down ticket races, that Obama's ties to Jeremiah Wright will kill us in November and that Hillary is the stronger candidate for down ticket candidates.

Per NBC News, Democrat Travis Childers will win the special election in Mississippi's first congressional district!

Update [2008-5-13 22:13:44 by Jonathan Singer]: !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Update [2008-5-13 22:23:57 by Jonathan Singer]: Short, simple, to the point from the AP: "Democrat Travis Childers wins special election for Mississippi's 1st Congressional District."

Update [2008-5-13 22:33:14 by Jonathan Singer]: Two quick thoughts on this...

1. I don't want to go so far as to say that this is the end of the Republican Party, because it's not. But this is as bad news as the GOP could possibly get at this point. They lost a district that leans 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in Illinois in March. They lost a district that leans 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole earlier this month in Louisiana. Now they lost a district that leans 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in Mississippi. If they can't win in Mississippi's first congressional district, where can they win?
2. The Republicans tried to make this election about two people: Barack Obama and Reverend Jeremiah Wright. And despite running this type of campaign, they lost. While it is true that Childers distanced himself from his party (and implicitly from Obama), the fact is that the Obama/Wright smears simply DID NOT WORK. The Republicans are going to have to get a new game plan, and the establishment media are going to have to get a new meme. Sorry folks.

Update [2008-5-13 22:45:9 by Jonathan Singer]: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen have statements on this monumental victory over at The Stakeholder.

Update [2008-5-13 22:50:17 by Jonathan Singer]: Senator Ronnie Musgrove (D-MS). Make it happen.

Update [2008-5-13 23:5:45 by Jonathan Singer]: An 8-point victory for Childers. What a drubbing. I thought this could be a couple-point win for Childers, at best, but 8 points? In an R+10 district? Wow. Just wow.

Here are the results so far:

7,697-vote margin for Childers

Greg Davis (R): 49,285 votes (46 percent)
√ Travis Childers (D): 56,982 votes (54 percent)

99.8 percent of precincts reporting at 10:55 PM Eastern

Update [2008-5-13 22:16:35 by Jonathan Singer]: The AP calls it for Childers!!!

Update [2008-5-13 22:3:44 by Jonathan Singer]: Childers' lead is down to just 700 votes with a little under three-quarters of the vote in. Weirdly enough, though, this might actually be good news for the Democrat. Why? Almost all of the vote (about 95 percent) from DeSoto County, which is by far the biggest GOP stronghold in the district, has reported, so there isn't a whole lot of favorable territory left out there for Davis. What's more, while Davis won DeSoto by an 81 percent to 17 percent margin last time, he only leads 74 percent to 26 percent at this point. With none of Democratic-friendly Prentiss County reporting (though none of the last GOP county, Tate, reporting either), this one will go down to the wire.

Update [2008-5-13 21:47:56 by Jonathan Singer]: A big chunk of DeSoto County just reported, pushing Davis up closer to Childers. Tate County, which is the other key for Davis' success, has not yet begun reporting. But Prentiss County, where Childers netted about 3,500 votes in the last round of balloting, has not yet begun to report, either, so expect these numbers to continue to jump around.

Update [2008-5-13 21:36:54 by Jonathan Singer]: More than half of the vote has reported and Childers' lead is larger than it has been at any other point in the night, over 3,600 votes. It WELL worth remembering, though, that in the last round of balloting here (as well as the election a week and a half ago in Louisiana) the Republicans led for much of the night only to be overtaken by the Democrats when it counted. So stay tuned...

Previous updates below the fold...

The special election in Mississippi's first district today will likely be our final opportunity before November to turn a red seat blue. Coming on the heels of our wins in IL-14 and LA-06 earlier this year, a win by Democrat Travis Childers in MS-01 today would provide that magical third instance that proves the trend and would set in motion a whole new "GOP screwed in November" narrative. The NRCC knows this, which is why they've spent at least $1.4 million on the race; and it's why they brought out the big guns to campaign with Republican candidate Greg Davis yesterday:

Davis spent the final day before the election rallying with Cheney, Sen. Roger Wicker (R), Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant (R), whipping up voters from Tupelo to Oxford to Batesville to his base in DeSoto County, where Cheney was set to appear.

Former Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) have also helped in recent days.

Yet, despite this, Chris Cilizza reports that things are not looking good at all for Davis:

Despite the onslaught of spending, knowledgeable sources on both sides of the aisle insist little has changed in the last 21 days. Childers is believed to have a mid single digit lead over Davis with Republican strategists turning pessimistic about their chances in the last 48 hours or so.

The Thorn Papers concurs:

A little bird just informed me that the Republicans' own internal polls are showing Childers up five.

Not that that should prevent anyone from, as Jonathan urged earlier, to phonebank for Childers today. Still just under an hour of voting left.

Hat tip to Cotton Mouth Blog for the links.

Check back here for live results once polls close at 8pm EDT.

Do it now!

We need your help with a critically-important special election that could increase our Democratic House Majority on May 13th.

In Mississippi's 1st Congressional District, we are closing in on what could be our third straight special election win that turns a red seat blue. Our candidate, Travis Childers is running neck-and-neck in a special election to fill the seat vacated by Roger Wicker.

Can you spare some time today to call fellow Democrats and encourage them to vote?

Click here to start

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern, so get to it now if you can. This is a win-win situation for the Democrats. Forcing the National Republican Congressional Committee to spend money it didn't have to spend on a race in a district that leans 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole is a win in and of itself. But putting Travis Childers in Congress would be an even sweeter victory. So start making calls now.

In addition to West Virginia's presidential primary, there will also be two high-stakes elections tomorrow that we'll be following closely.

• NE-Sen The first is the Nebraska Democratic primary for senate. Voters will be choosing between netroots allstar Scott Kleeb, who made a name for himself in 2006 during his impressive run for the 3rd district congressional seat, and life-long Republican businessman Tony Raimondo who switched parties just to run for the senate. The choice is clear. Not only is Kleeb a champion of the netroots, but he is a proud Democrat in reddest of red Nebraska.

  New Nebraska Network has a rundown on the distinctions Kleeb is drawing between himself and Raimondo.

  This  editorial from the Lincoln Journal Star calls it a horserace -- it could go any way tomorrow, so go HERE to phonebank for Scott to get the vote out for him tomorrow.

  Also, here's Scott's final ad of the primary:

• MS-01 Remember the nailbiter of a special election in MS-01 from last month when Democrat Travis Childers almost beat Republican Greg Davis outright to fill out the remainder of former congressman Roger Wicker's term in congress? Since Childers came just short of the 50% threshold, tomorrow will be the runoff between Childers and Davis.

  WaPo on what's at stake tomorrow:

  With lots of help from Washington -- including more than $1.3 million in campaign cash and a last-minute visit by Vice President Cheney -- Mississippi Republicans are desperately trying to retain a congressional seat in one of the most reliably conservative districts in the nation.

  The stakes in the 1st District special election couldn't be higher, strategically or symbolically. The loss of a traditionally GOP seat to a Democrat would be the third in a special election this spring and the second in the Deep South after the May 3 victory of Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.)

  The importance of this race has not been lost on the DCCC who, to their credit, have spent $1.8 million of their considerable warchest on the race and have set up a virtual phonebank so you can help get out the vote for Travis Childers tomorrow.

  Check in with Cotton Mouth Blog for local coverage of this important race.