(This is cross-posted at The Symposium and Clintonistas For Obama

(I wrote the bulk of this on June 10th and added some revisions during a Study Break)

Barack Obama, on the verge of his own premature victory celebration, had time to visit Michigan this week -- a state where he voluntarily removed his name from the ballot for political gain in Iowa, then subsequently blocked a re-vote.  But apparently he couldn't squeeze in even one visit to the Bluegrass State in advance of its primary this Tuesday.  Not to worry, though, Obama assured the people of Kentucky from afar that he'd be back before November to win them over.

In lieu of visiting Kentucky to ask voters personally for their support, Obama has spent a fortune in television and radio ads, plus handbills, that play up his Christianity.  He's also found the time to blame a bunch of people, including FOX News and political opponents, for his impending double-digit loss there.  Arriving on the heels of a humiliating 41-point defeat in neighboring West Virginia (where he spent a few hours campaigning), it would be understandable if Obama was feeling a little down about now.


Appalachia, a region rich in battleground electoral votes, is most definitely Clinton Country.  A set of maps courtesy of Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections illustrates Hillary's overwhelming Appalachian advantage.  In case the legend is hard to read, dark blue in the top map shows counties Clinton has won (light blue is Obama). In the bottom map, pink represents Republican-won counties in the general elections of both 2000 and 2004; dark blue is for counties won by Democrats in both years; and those won by Democrats in only one of the two years are light blue.

The Democratic Party should study this data carefully.  Hillary Clinton has the same populist appeal in the region as her husband, who won more than half of these states in 1992 and 1996. Remarkably, even as the mainstream media writes her obituary, in general-election surveys Clinton still out-polls "presumptive nominee" Barack Obama in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And, based on her strong primary performances, Hillary gives the Democrats tangible hope in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee for the first time since 1996.

So...while Barack Obama writes off another swing state, Hillary Clinton continues to solidify her popularity with the people of Appalachia, working like a die-hard Democrat should to build the party's base, going door-to-door stumping for votes in Kentucky.

And the people of Kentucky, like their neighbors in West Virginia, will come out in full force this Tuesday -- ignoring all the grand displays of victory by Obama -- to tell America that they want Hillary Clinton for President.

Word from the Clinton campaign is that Kentuckians are warm and hospitable hosts.  I sure hope Barack Obama has the opportunity in his lifetime to spend a bit of time in Bluegrass Country getting to know them.

Cross posted at texasdarlin and Taylor Marsh


TexasDarlin, all rights reserved
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign

It's all over the blogosphere, the cable TV shows, the newspapers, it's tonight's top talking point from Obama surrogates.

It's Obama's rationale:  Defeats in West Virginia (and Kentucky next week) are because those white folks got a problem voting for a black man.

But sorry, that's wrong.  Not only is it wrong, it's hugely offensive to fair-minded white people.  That's right, most "hillbillies" and southern folk do not discriminate. Imagine how all those white people who voted for Hillary Clinton today feel having their votes explained away due to racism.  It's not going to help in November if Obama is the nominee, that much is for sure.

I just saw a FOX News exit poll statistic that 77% of the people in West Virginia said race was NOT a factor in their vote.  I absolutely believe them.  I believe that a different African American candidate could be much more successful than Obama among some of the white segments where he's struggled.  I have been trying to shout this point from the rooftops:  It is not Obama's skin color that gives voters pause.  It is a collection of other issues, mixed together.  It's Rev. Wright damning America, plus "bitter small-towners clinging," plus friendships with guys like Rezko and Ayres, plus Michelle's patriotism gaffe, plus the flag pin problem -- all of that combined with the experience gap, the weak name recognition -- all together, there's the answer.

It's not race, so please stop.  If Obama becomes the nominee, I'd suggest that a more effective way to win votes in November is to deal head-on with the liabilities listed in that last paragraph.  Playing the race card may have had some limited use in the primary season, but it will be the kiss of death for Democrats as a general-election strategy.

Obama lost West Virginia today by whopping double digits.  Convenient as it may be to blame it on racism, that's a costly error.

I'd take it a step further (2.00 / 4)

I don't even think this victory has anything to do with Obama. It isn't a rejection of him... these people LOVE HILLARY! These people believe with all their hearts and minds that Hillary should be our next President. She connects with them, she speaks to them, she gets their enthusiastic support and votes.

Personally, I've never lived in a state that went for Obama. I've lived in RI, NY, MA, NH, CA, NM, PA. Racism doesn't explain why those votes went for Hillary. I don't know a single person that I'd ever in a million years call racist. I know literally hundreds of loyal Clinton supporters and their motivation is exactly like my own: Pro-pro-pro-pro-HILLARY! Not everything is about Obama. :)

Almost heaven...West Virginia

The beautiful state of West Virginia, a November battleground state, hasn't seen much of Barack Obama this year.  Maybe it's not part of his 57- (oops, I mean 50) state strategy. Or maybe he hopes that by ignoring West Virginia, the mainstream media will follow suit and shrug off a whopper-size win by Hillary Clinton.

If Barack is feeling a bit blue about tomorrow's election, he should be in the opinion of ABC's Jake Tapper, who explores the implications of the West Virginia primary in his post Why Shouldn't Obama Win West Virginia?

1.8 million Americans live in West Virginia, 665,234 of them are registered Democrats. It's bordered by two states Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois won -- Virginia and Maryland, and two states Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, won -- Pennsylvania and Ohio.  (Its fifth border state, Kentucky, holds its primary on May 20.)

The Mountain State ranks 50th in median household income, $31,008; 50th in persons in the state 25 years or older with a bachelor's degree or more, 15.3%; and 48th in per capita income, $23,995.

The state is 96% white and 3.5% African-American.

The idea of Democrats winning in West Virginia is perfectly sane. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one -- approximately 60% to 30%.

The state has two Democratic senators -- Bob Byrd and Jay Rockefeller -- and a Democratic governor, Joe Manchin. Two out of its three members of Congress are Democrats. The state went for Michael Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Sure, with few African-Americans or college-educated Democrats, this does not seem like an "Obama" state the way these primaries have been playing out.

But Obama needs to be able to convince voters like these that he cares about them, shares their values, and will change their lives. (emphasis added)

One would think.

For his part, Obama has taken the expectations-setting game to an absurd level by predicting a 60-point win for Clinton! Anyone else feeling bamboozled?  A more rational expectation is something like 30 points, a landslide by any measure.  And quite the embarrasment for Obama as he desperately tries to make Clinton an outcast in her own Party.

But Tapper says what millions of people who refuse to be razzle-dazzled are thinking...

If these (West Virginia) Democrats vote for Clinton, the presumptive loser, overwhelmingly -- as is predicted -- that indicates a real problem for Obama. I know the delegate math is close to dispositive for Clinton, but tomorrow's butt-stomping seems to me like it should merit some serious hand-wringing among Democrats.

Agreed.

West Virginia is a beautiful place, especially the Blue Ridge mountains.  Based on what I've heard from the Clinton camp, the people there are warm and wonderful too.  I hope that Senator Obama has the opportunity in his lifetime to spend more than a few hours getting to know them.

43 points..  The Survey was conducted on May 7 and 8, after Tuesday's elections.

Clinton 66
Obama 23
Undec. 6

The pollster, ARG:

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 57% to 27% among men (43% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 72% to 20%.

Clinton leads 70% to 19% among white voters (93% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 3% among African American voters (5% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 61% to 27% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 72% to 19% among voters age 50 and older.

13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 45% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. Source.

Question for ARG:  In the last paragraph of the above report, should "primary" read "general election?" Seems like that might be a typo. I suspect that 45% said they would never vote for Obama.

This is the second pollster in 2 days that has predicted a Clinton win in West Virginia of more than 40 points.  The other one is discussed here.  

Now, someone left a comment in my diary Desperate to Win yesterday pointing out that West Virginia has only 28 delegates.  True, but what would a 40-point defeat in a GE swing state say about Obama's electability and his ability to assemble a winning coalition for the Democrats?

Kentucky, a state with 51 delegates that votes in less than 2 weeks, also looks likely to hand Clinton a landslide victory.  Survey USA's recent poll this week predicts a 34-point win for HRC.  That's the 3rd consecutive poll for Kentucky by SUSA in April/May with a 30+ point margin.

Interestingly, RCP does not make it easy to find the poll results for these upcoming states.  They're sort of buried, but they are there if you dig.

UPDATE: In the Comments thread to this post, an Obama supporter wrote: "I wonder what turnout will be." Interesting question coming from an Obama supporter because I believe that Obama announced his plans yesterday to announce his victory on May 20 in order to keep voter turnout low in the upcoming states. He doesn't want Hillary to drive up her popular vote counts. However, I can assure you that Clinton's phone bankers are connecting with enthusiastic voters in West Virginia, Kentucky, and elsewhere who cannot wait to go to the polls. To Hillary supporters: keep up the great GOTV efforts!

Cross posted at TexasDarlin

TexasDarlin, all rights reserved
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign

In what is a respectable move of sticking to principles, conservative power brokers are meeting to talk about the possibility of backing a third party conservative bid for the White House.   With Guiliani leading in many polls, conservatives don't want to find themselves with a pro-choice candidate and instead wanting to find someone as oppressive and hate filled as themselves.  

Although no plans have been officially made, a meeting of 40 powerful right wing theocons was held this weekend to discuss the issue.  Apparently, most of them take all the credit for Bush's re-election (instead of giving credit to Diebold and the hackers who helped manipulate their machines) and are PISSED at what they see as a betrayal.

They are smart enough to realize that their candidate won't win, but see it as a way to shock the GOP establishment.  They feel like they are taken for granted and feel entitled to have a big voice within the GOP.

In analyzing this, of course, this would be the greatest thing EVER.  A fracturing of the GOP would assure us not only the White House but a MANDATE SIZE landslide victory.  Given the RW hatred of all things Hillary, I doubt they would do this if she is the nominee, preferring to go with the ABH approach; of course the reverse is that would be EXACTLY the thing to shake the GOPers leadership and show the importance of the Theocons to the GOP.  However, Edwards, Obama, Richardson and several others may be handed a strong mandate on a silver platter.  It will be interesting to watch if these people are ACTUALLY this stupid, but it would be outstanding if they did.  

Alan Keyes in 2008?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071001/ap_p o/conservatives_third_party;_ylt=AlqRbyz VWeVCNsvrofUguxqMwfIE

I thought I'd share this email I sent out to my family and friends at 2:30am last night when I got back from Tracy, California. A little context: My family has a long tradition of radical politics, communists, sixties revolutionaries, etc...This is my coming out email for going "mainstream"... :) also, much of what follows goes ditto for the netroots in a virtual sorta way...  

"Dear family and friends...

Spent all day today working out in Tracy at the Mcnerney campaign to unseat Richard Pombo (with my cousin Katie and friend Eric!) and I must say this was one of the more wonderful days of my life. It's hard to describe the feeling of tromping around all day in the beautiful weather, surrounded by SUVs, quiet neighborhoods, streets that are all named either Sycamore Way or Weeping Willow Lane, huge lines at the polling station, the ragtag band of rebels gathering at the home of Martha Gamez,  perhaps my greatest hero of all time--a woman in her sixties who hasn't slept more than 2 hours a night for a week organizing this vast army of eager but entirely clueless Bay Areans into an eager, happy bunch of door-knockers and still managing to give out hugs and laughs and wow Americans sure can be decent wonderful people sometimes. Today was the day the last smoldering coals of cynicism died in my Election-2000-encrusted-heart. As the sun went down on the vast flat aquamarine skies of the valley, and we stood at the poll watching a huge line of happy, talkative voters wait patiently for their turn and a little posse of sleazy-looking Republicans started snooping around and looking ominous and I thought "No, today, you are not going to do anything. Because we are here. For the first time, I am not watching you fuck this up on the news afterwards anymore. I am here, and so are thousands upon thousands like me. There's Jeb who sat (mostly stood) all day at the poll, that's  12 hours if you're counting, watching for problems. There's Lee who I became best friends with for a day as we got lost in the spiraling suburbs over and over, there's Carolyn who's been traveling across the country with her husband in their RV and they decided to stop here in Tracy for a month and get this election won. And more..."

From now on, anytime you hear me say anything bitter or angry about the American people, you remind me of this day. You remind of the folks in their seventies and the college kids who patiently knocked at doors and worked like their lives depended on it and shocked those little worms. The operatives who were flown in from DC by Pombo and the RNC were defeated by a mob of smiling seniors and housewives and berkeley students and painters and laborers. And then while I was standing there as the poll wrapped up and talked to my friend Eric who said it sounded like they were projecting  a 30 seat pickup for Dems a chill went through me. I thought, everywhere around the country in small towns in Nebraska and Colorado and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, there were people just like me doing this very thing and it meant something. The Democrats hardly even matter in this equation, and they will probably do their best to squander this. But it's too late. People know that working hard enough and watching enough and caring enough actually do make the little guy win every once in a while. That's a very dangerous feeling to have. I've never worked a campaign before on the street, and I will never let one go by again without knocking on some doors. I saw this short, balding, rather quiet, decent older alternative-energy consultant start with a write-in campaign and finish by defeating one of the most powerful, corrupt and poisonous people in congress. And all we did was go door to door and talk to folks. I know I'm not the only one who's gone all-in on this process now. I live here, my beautiful niece and nephew live here, my wonderful parents live here, all my amazing cousins and uncles and the spirits of our grandparents and we honor them in this work. I'm tired of being angry at this place. Time to make some things grow that (my nieces and nephews) Orion and Ivy and Sebastian and the generation before them can tend when they get old.

If you ever want to see where this war is going to be won, walk out on those streets with these people some day. You might never be able to curse or generalize again."

From Larry Johnson's No Quarter:

Military Times Throws Down the [Gauntlet]: Rumsfeld Must Go

By Brent Budowsky

[Note from Larry Johnson:  My friend and colleague, Brent Budowsky, a contributing editor to the Fighting Dems, was first out of the gate reacting to the news that the Military Times newspapers are calling for Rumsfeld to go.  Here is his piece.]

The Military Times speaks truth to power and to America with its call for Rumsfeld to go.  This is the beginning of the end for the Republican policy of failure, arrogance, corruption, dishonesty and war partisanship.

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