So much for the notion that Senate Republicans genuinely had a shot at putting the Democrats on the defensive anywhere in the country this cycle. Via Breaking Blue comes news of yet another survey out of South Dakota showing Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson up by a wide margin over his underwhelming GOP challenger. And earlier this week, Rasmussen Reports released new numbers out of Louisiana calling to question the Republicans' shot in Louisiana.

Senator Mary Landrieu, once viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this election year, has opened a significant lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in her bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the Louisiana Democrat attracts 53% of the vote while the Republican hopeful earns just 37% support. A month ago, Landrieu was leading Kennedy by only five percentage points, 49% to 44%.

When leaners are pushed, Mary Landrieu's lead over John N. Kennedy grows to 17 points, 56 percent to 39 percent -- not exactly the range of an endangered incumbent. Louisiana is still a tough state for the Democrats to prevail in, both because of the long term trends in the region away from the Democrats towards the Republicans and because of the demographic shifts in the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. However, the Democratic Party -- and this includes the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic National Committee, the state party, activists on the ground -- have been working overtime in recent months to identify voters across the state, particularly those that moved from New Orleans to Baton Rouge or elsewhere, an effort which has greatly increased the party's chances in the fall. Tack on the fact that the DSCC and the Landrieu campaign have been pummeling Kennedy in paid media, and you can see why this race appears to be moving back towards the Democrats.

And with the Democrats playing less and less defense between now and November, and the Republicans going on the defensive in an increasingly large number of states (who'da thunk it that Georgia and even Oklahoma would be tightening up at this juncture), the Democrats' shot at 60 seats in the Senate is becoming ever more real.

I've got a few polls backed up in the queue, so rather than write them up individually, here is a compendium of some of the latest numbers:

• Louisiana: Overly worried about Mary Landrieu's prospects? The latest numbers her campaign commissioned from the Mellman Group show her ahead of Democrat-turned-Republican John Kennedy by a 49 percent to 33 percent margin. Bottom line, I don't think Landrieu's going to win by a huge margin, but I'm fairly sure she's going to win nevertheless. If the GOP couldn't beat her with all of their might in 2002, how are they supposed to defeat her this fall?

• Alaska: The Democrats might not have won a Senate election in Alaska in more than 30 years, but that's not stopping Anchorage's Democratic mayor Mark Begich from running an impressive campaign -- impressive not only to outside observers like me but also apparently to Alaskans themselves. According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the history of the Senate, leads Begich just 46 percent to 44 percent, well within the margin of error. DSCC polling actually puts Begich on top.

• Colorado: Democratic Congressman Mark Udall is moving on up, now leading former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer by a 9-point margin, 49 percent to 40 percent, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports polling. Key sentences from the Rasmussen write up: "The Democrat has steadily pulled ahead over the past three polls, gaining three percentage points in each survey conducted. Prior to those surveys, the two candidates were essentially even." The other key from the poll is the 51 percent to 30 percent lead Udall enjoys among unaffiliated voters.

A poll conducted for Mary Landrieu's campaign by The Mellman Group shows a relatively comfortable lead for the Louisiana incumbent:

(5/17-20, 600 LVs, 12/2007 results in parens)

Mary Landrieu (D): 49 (48)
John Kennedy (R): 33 (35)

Now, a Rassmussen poll conducted May 28th showed Landrieu only up by three. But as James at SSP points out, the Mellman results track with a Southern Media & Opinion Research poll from April showing Landrieu up by 12.

And as Markos notes, there's voter registration drives going on in Louisiana that could affect Dems up and down the ticket even if McCain desides to spend serious money in the state to defend against Obama's aggressive strategy.

You know what's amusing? This is the only dem-held seat that Republican Senate chair John Ensign considers competitive.

Update [2008-6-16 17:54:3 by Josh Orton]: New numbers showing Pat Roberts' Senate seat in KANSAS(!) could be in play...

So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

The presidential primaries are heading towards a not so climactic conclusion and so the time has come to focus some attention on the congressional races. I haven't updated the  rankings since January and a lot has changed in the past 5 months, starting with the resolution of contested primaries in Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina and probably Minnesota. Both parties have gone through final recruitment pushes, with the GOP playing a tragicomedic farce in New Jersey and suffering through one more round of failures in South Dakota and Iowa.

The full rankings are available here, on my blog at Campaign Diaries.

Earlier this week Todd pointed to Rasmussen Reports polling showing Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana leading her Republican challenger, state Treasurer John Kennedy, by a healthy 55 percent to 39 percent margin -- a difference that begins to undercut the notion that Landrieu is as vulnerable as a lot of the folks inside the Beltway seem to think she is. Lest one believe that the Rasmussen survey was an aberration, an outlier, take a look at the new Southern Media & Opinion Research survey out of the state:

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu has a significant lead over the Republican challenger for her seat in this fall's election, state Treasurer John Kennedy, in the poll results. Fifty percent of those polled by Southern Media & Opinion Research picked Landrieu over Kennedy. Kennedy had 38 percent support.

Pollster Bernie Pinsonat said people still don't know Kennedy as well as Landrieu, but he said Landrieu's high approval ratings with voters -- 70 percent of those polled said they had a favorable impression of her -- make her a formidable candidate.

"It means the voters obviously have a very high regard for her as their U.S. senator," Pinsonat said. "She is going to be tough to beat because she is so well-thought of."

Pinsonat said Landrieu benefited from her prominence in Washington relief and recovery aid for the state since hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

It's clear that at this point Louisiana its as the Republicans best, and basically only, pick up opportunity in the Senate this cycle. Some, like the Rothenberg Political Report, go so far as to rate the race as a "tossup." But can a race in which a statewide elected official who is fairly well known around the state can't even crack 40 percent against a supposedly endangered incumbent -- in a state, the partisan leanings of which tend to be moving against that incumbent -- really be deemed a "tossup"? And is an incumbent with a 70 percent favorable rating really endangered?

It seems to me that folks are overstating the challenge faced by Landrieu. Does she face a difficult reelection campaign? No doubt. Is Kennedy a formidable opponent? It does seem so. However, is Landrieu anywhere near as vulnerable as a Republican incumbent like, say, John Sununu or Norm Coleman, both of whom consistently either trail or are tied with their Democratic challenger? It sure doesn't seem like it.

It used to be that Republicans had a real shot at potentially taking out two Democratic senate incumbents this cycle: Senators Tim Johnson (D-SD) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA.) Well, after Johnson's triumphant return to the senate after his recovery from a brain hemorrhage, he hasn't been seen on any top 10 most vulnerable senators list for months, leaving only Landrieu among Democrats realistically seen as beatable. But now even her status as a realistic target is looking tenuous. Early this month Landrieu dropped from 4 to 6 on the Real Clear Politics senate rankings list. As the RCP analysis put it:  

6. Louisiana (D-Landrieu): Incumbent Mary Landrieu is virtually the only Democrat on the GOP's target list. While recruits from several other states passed on their races, the GOP got the candidate they want with State Treasurer John Kennedy. Still, Republican voters in the state might not be wedded to Kennedy; he only switched from the Democratic Party last year. And Landrieu's performance after Hurricane Katrina has even won her endorsements from some Republicans. Landrieu remains the favorite in the race, but, given the state's new GOP nature, not by much. (Last: 4)

Expect Landrieu to fall even further down these lists now that a  new Rasmussen Reports survey out of Louisiana (500 LVs, April 9, MOE +/- 4.5%) confirms her solid popularity in the state with a remarkable 65/32 fav/unfav rating and a commanding lead over supposed top tier challenger John Kennedy.

Landrieu 55
Kennedy 39

At this rate it won't be long before the top 10 closest senate races will all be Republican seats. Great to see a bad year for Republicans get even worse.

So with eight months to go, I figure it's time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent's party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know.  That's because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don't follow the national races like we do.  Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.