Via Ben Smith comes new polling showing Barack Obama leading Jon McCain among Jewish voters -- though now performing as well within the group as John Kerry or Al Gore. But does that mean Obama is really destined to earn significantly fewer Jewish votes in 2008 than his most recent predecessors? First, the numbers:

The survey, commissioned by the Washington-based advocacy organization J Street, found that only 58 percent of American Jews said they would definitely vote for Obama, an Illinois senator. Another 4 percent said they were leaning toward the presumptive Democratic nominee.

In contrast, Al Gore and Bill Clinton both drew approximately 80 percent of the Jewish vote in their respective runs for the presidency, while John Kerry garnered about 76 percent in 2004.

Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), with 3 percent saying they were leaning toward the presumptive GOP nominee. That would represent a higher showing among Jews than the 24 percent President Bush drew in 2004.

First, the poll quotes incorrect numbers for George W. Bush's support among the Jewish community in 2004 -- Kerry actually beat Bush by a 78 percent to 22 percent margin (.pdf) in the two-party Jewish vote, and thus received less than 22 percent of the vote overall.

Second, the survey asked the heads up question towards the end of the poll -- and, even more problematically, just six questions after asking voters whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view towards the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. That's not the way to get accurate data.

And the numbers overall don't sound terribly on the mark. Despite the fact that Jewish voters backed Democratic House candidates by at least a 76 percent to 22 percent margin in 2004 and an 87 percent to 12 percent margin in 2006, the survey has the Democrats leading by just a 69 percent to 27 percent margin among Jewish voters in the generic congressional ballot question. Outside of some or any explanation of this, I'm just not buying it. These numbers don't really pass the smell test.

But beyond that, it's worth noting a few things about where Jewish voters were at a similar point in the 2004 cycle. Here are some numbers I noted in a post a couple months back: "[P]olling at the outset of the Democratic race in late 2003/early 2004 showed Kerry, as well as most of the other Democratic contenders at the time, beating Bush among American Jews by only about 60 percent to 30 percent margin. Even Joe Lieberman only carried the Jewish vote in a hypothetical head-to-head match up at the time by a 71 percent to 24 percent margin. And as late in the game as September 2004, polling indicated that Kerry only led Bush in this subgroup by a 69 percent to 24 percent margin even though he ended wup winning by about a net dozen points more."

So when folks trumpet polling like this to argue that Obama is uniquely weak among the Jewish community, perhaps they would be well served to look at the fuller picture -- that polling has shown similar trends in the past only to be proven wrong come election day when Jewish voters come home to the Democratic Party.

According to new polling from Gallup, American Jewish voters, who have tended to overwhelmingly support Democrats in elections going back at least about a century, are no more likely to defect from the Democratic ranks should Barack Obama be the party's nominee rather than Hillary Clinton.

Barack Obama is faring better than might be expected among Jewish voters, beating John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily general-election matchups and trailing Hillary Clinton only slightly in Jewish Democrats' preferences for the Democratic nomination.

[...]

In terms of the general election, Jewish voters nationwide are nearly as likely to say they would vote for Obama if he were the Democratic nominee running against the Republican McCain (61%), as to say they would vote for Clinton (66%).

[...]

According to Gallup's aggregated tracking data for all of April, 61% of Jewish voters would vote for Obama, much higher than the national average of 45% of all registered voters.

Rather than declining between March and April, support for Obama versus McCain among Jewish voters has increased slightly, from a 23-point margin in favor of Obama (58% to 35%) to a 29-point margin (61% to 32%).

The results are similar for Clinton, who received 66% of the vote from Jewish Democrats in April, compared with 27% for McCain -- a 39-point lead. Clinton led McCain by 29 points in March, 61% to 32%.

Gallup does not provide a margin of error for this aggregation of polling data, but doing the math it looks like the margin of error for this data is about plus or minus 3.5 percentage points -- meaning that the difference between the general election performance among American Jews between Clinton and Obama is statistically insignificant.

Now the fact that Obama beats McCain only by a 61 percent to 32 margin among Jewish voters might be a cause for concern for some. After all, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by a 78 percent to 22 percent margin (.pdf) within this demographic in the two-party vote. However, it's well worth noting that polling at the outset of the Democratic race in late 2003/early 2004 showed Kerry, as well as most of the other Democratic contenders at the time, beating Bush among American Jews by only about 60 percent to 30 percent margin. Even Joe Lieberman only carried the Jewish vote in a hypothetical head-to-head match up at the time by a 71 percent to 24 percent margin. And as late in the game as September 2004, polling indicated that Kerry only led Bush in this subgroup by a 69 percent to 24 percent margin even though he ended wup winning by about a net dozen points more.

So when you actually delve into the numbers, it becomes clear that these numbers actually bode fairly well for Obama's chances among Jewish voters in November. What's more, these numbers seriously undercut the notion that Obama has a serious problem among American Jews resulting from false smear emails or whatever else.

This is a little old, but I'm just seeing it now. According to Gallup polling (via the Jewish Review of Portland, Oregon), Democrats of the Jewish faith are fairly evenly divided on their pick for the party's presidential nominee. Take a look at these numbers released March 24:

Jewish Democratic voters show a slight preference for Hillary Clinton (48%) over Barack Obama (43%) for the party's 2008 presidential nomination. The five-point Clinton advantage is within the margin of error for this sample of Jewish Democrats.

The data are based on interviews with 348 Jewish Democratic voters conducted in Gallup Poll Daily tracking in March. So far this month, all Democratic voters regardless of religious affiliation are equally divided (46% each) in their nomination preferences between Clinton and Obama.

Obama's ability to win votes in the U.S. Jewish community has been questioned, given suggestions that he does not support Israel as strongly as other candidates. Some of Obama's supporters (including the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, former pastor of Obama's church) and foreign policy advisers are regarded as anti-Israel. Obama has met with Jewish leaders to reassure them of his commitment to Israel.

There have been some implicit arguments that Obama would not do well among American Jews, a key constituency within the Democratic base (the roughly 2 percent of the electorate voted for Democratic over Republican House candidates in 2006 by a 87 percent to 12 percent margin, for instance). However, this Gallup polling makes clear that Americans of the Jewish faith within the Democratic Party are about as evenly divided as Democrats as a whole, with the difference between the two candidates falling within the poll's margin of error.

What does this all augur for the rest of the Democratic race? Only one remaining state, Pennsylvania, has a Jewish population that is somewhat sizable in relation to the overall population. In 2006, for instance, Jews were estimated to make up about 5 percent of Pennsylvanians going to the polls on election day, 78 percent of whom backed Bob Casey Jr. and 85 percent of whom backed Ed Rendell. I can't seem to find exit polling on the 2002 gubernatorial primary in the state (which happened to be between Rendell and Casey), the last seriously contested top-of-the-ballot Democratic primary in the state, in order to figure out just what percentage of the Democratic primary electorate tends to be of the Jewish faith, though I'd suppose that it wouldn't tell us a whole lot about the upcoming presidential primary in the Keystone state given that so many more voters will likely turn out this month than have turned out in the past. Regardless, it seems unlikely that Pennsylvania Jews will significantly tip the scales towards Clinton over Obama on April 22.

Regardless, the takeaway from these numbers seems to be this: There is little evidence to support the notion that Jewish American voters are unwilling to support Obama, and in fact it appears that Jewish Americans who are Democrats are divided by about the same margin as their party as a whole when it comes to choosing between Obama and Clinton.

I've done quite a bit of research and writing on the Jewish vote in America in the past few years, both here on MyDD and for academic purposes. The one underlying theme of this research is that American Jews, who have voted for every Democratic presidential nominee in the last 70-plus years and who backed Democratic congressional candidates by about a 7-to-1 margin in 2006, aren't soon going to abandon the Democratic coaltion -- regardless of the entreaties of the Republicans. Yet that hasn't stopped Republican candidates and leaders from trying to court this Democratic constituency. Take a look, for instance, at this article from Sam Stein in The Politico:

In April Mitt Romney delivered a noteworthy but largely ignored campaign speech in midtown Manhattan.

Instead of addressing a group of Republican activists or high-end fundraisers, the presidential hopeful spoke to approximately 570 Jewish students, alumni and teachers at the graduation dinner for Yeshiva University's Sy Syms School of Business.

Romney emphasized his support for Israel. He accidentally, though to hoots and applause, called ex-President Jimmy Carter -- a critic of Israel's policies toward Palestinians -- "Jimmy Kidder." He even tried his hand at Yiddish.

"It takes chutzpah, I believe, to buy a company from somebody else," Romney said of his background in business as the sound of clanging silverware filled the room.

One might note that Orthodox Jews are more likely than others of the faith to vote Republican, which is probably true (though there isn't a whole lot of data to support this contention). As such, Romney's play for this group might have quite the potential for upside, right? Perhaps not. Back in February Ryan Grim reported, also for The Politico, that Romney was getting hit for having vetoed funding for kosher meals for Jewish Medicaid recipients while Governor of Massachusetts. Such a position certainly would not endear him to the Orthodox community, even if he was willing to deign one of the sect's places of higher learning recently.

But even getting beyond some of the admittedly less salient issues Jewish voters might have with one Republican presidential candidate, who may or may not receive his party's nomination next year, the fact still remains that American Jews aren't going to leave the Democratic coalition any time soon. It's just not going to happen, regardless of Republicans' positions on Israel. Back in October, for instance, a new survey showed that the gap between Democratic and Republican registration among American Jews was growing, and more recent polling has shown that American Jews, along with African-Americans, are about the most liberal and most allied with the Democratic Party on issues of any ethnic, racial or religious group.

I certainly don't begrudge Romney -- or other Republicans, for that matter -- trying to reach out to Jewish voters. I might correct reporters who swallow GOP spin about Republican outreach to American Jews, but I won't attack Republicans for their futile efforts. I would, however, like to end this post with a quick anecdote that I think ties in with what I have been writing here.

This month I attended an event honoring the reopening of the Jewish Community Center here in Portland. Some of the biggest names in the Jewish community were in attendence, a number of whom are quite wealthy and often back Republican candidates because of their position on Israel. Our Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, who is Jewish, delivered a speech and was greeted by strong applause. A letter from our Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski, who is not Jewish, was read and was greeted by strong applause. But when a letter from our Republican Senator Gordon Smith, who is also not Jewish, was read not a single person in the audience clapped, as best I could tell.

[X-posted with Jspot]

If you could talk to the presidential candidates, what would you tell them?

Seventeen men and one woman are seeking the nomination of their parties for President of the United States. In the coming months, they will develop and present their platforms and priorities.

Many Jewish organizations are taking advantage of this opportunity to present their agenda on behalf of the Jewish community. But is their agenda also your agenda?

As American Jews, we have a broad range of priorities.

Child Care. Civil Rights. Education. Environment. Health Care. Housing. Immigration. Katrina/Rita. Seniors. Wages.

jspot.org, Hazon, Isabella Freedman Retreat Center, Jdub Records, Jewcy.com, Jewish Student Press Service, Jews for Racial & Economic Justice, Jews United for Justice, Jewschool.com, Moishe/Kavod House Boston, Progressive Jewish Alliance, The Shalom Center, The Tribe, VelveteenRabbi.com, and Workmen's Circle/Arbiter Ring want you to be a part of creating a domestic Jewish agenda for the 2008 election that represents your priorities.

The plan is simple. Thousands of Jews come together to create a domestic agenda that represents our interests. We send this agenda to every presidential candidate and request a written response. As candidates reply we publicize their views on our websites, via email, and through the press.

If you want to see a presidential campaign where the candidates address your concerns, you have to tell them what you think.

Interested? Click here to add your vote.

Think it is about time that regular Jews had a chance to shape a Jewish agenda? Think it is about time someone told the presidential candidates that American Jews care deeply about domestic issues? Think it is about time we used the internet to make the Jewish community more representative?

Then help spread the word about this campaign. Email your friends. Place this badge on your website. Write a post for your blog.

Thanks for your support - I'll do my best to post updates daily.

During the lead up to both the 2004 election and the 2006 midterms, I spent a great deal of time trying to dispel the notion that American Jews were on the verge of renouncing their historic ties with the Democratic Party after having voted Democratic in every presidential election dating back to 1928. African-Americans were similarly said to be moving away from the Democratic Party to the GOP ahead of the 2004 election, and to this end in 2005, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman apologized for his party's "Southern strategy" in the hopes of bringing more African-Americans into his party.

Of course non of the poppycock about Jews and African-Americans switching their allegiances from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party was proved to be founded in reality. According to exit polling from 2004, John Kerry received about 88 percent of the African-American vote and 74 percent of the Jewish vote (the latter figure being estimated to be low by The Solomon Project [.pdf]). Likewise, exit polling from 2006 showed that 89 percent of African-Americans voted for Democratic House candidates nationwide while 87 percent of Jews did so. And new polling indicates that on the issue of greatest importance to the American people today -- Iraq -- African-Americans and American Jews are the most strongly opposed to the politics and policies advanced by this current Republican administration as it relates to Iraq. Gallup has the details.

An analysis of Gallup Poll data collected since the beginning of 2005 finds that among the major religious groups in the United States, Jewish Americans are the most strongly opposed to the Iraq war. Catholics and Protestants are more or less divided in their views on the war, while Mormons are the most likely to favor it. Those with no religious affiliation also oppose the war, but not to the same extent that Jewish people do. The greater opposition to the war is not simply a result of high Democratic identification among U.S. Jews, as Jews of all political persuasions are more likely to oppose the war than non-Jews who share the same political leanings.

For this analysis, Gallup combined 13 surveys from the last two-plus years that measured both support for the Iraq war (using Gallup's "mistake for the U.S. to send troops to Iraq" question) and respondent religious affiliation, for a combined sample of more than 12,000 interviews. Across the time period these 13 surveys covered, an average of 52% of Americans opposed the war by saying the United States made a mistake to invade Iraq, and 46% favored the war by saying it did not make a mistake.

Looking at the specific polling data, by a 77 percent to 21 percent margin, Jews state that they believe that going to war with Iraq was a mistake; Black Protestants say the same thing by a 78 percent to 18 percent margin. Both of these margins are significantly larger than the 52 percent to 46 percent spread among all Americans. Givent he fact that Iraq is THE cleavage within the electorate today -- polling cited here last month showed a 98 percent correlation between views on Iraq and of President Bush -- it's fairly safe to say that the data on the views towards Iraq held by African-Americans and Jews do not augur well for Republican attempts to break these groups away from the Democratic Party any time soon.

[X-posted with Jspot]

As expected, HRC announced today that she is forming an exploratory committee to, well, "explore" the idea of running for President. To kick off its coverage of the newly declared candidate, the NYTimes looks at the high stakes money race between Clinton and Obama.

Given the number of serious Jewish political donors in the "key cities" (New York, Hollywood, and Chicago) the article is in part a preview of where this elite groups of Jews are putting their treasure. Donors sited in the article include George Soros, Steven Speilberg, Roger Altman, Steven Rattner, Alan Patricof, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Orin S. Kramer, Robert Zimmerman, David Geffen, Robert Wolf, Margo Lion. In fact, almost every single donor mentioned in the article is Jewish, and many (including Kramer, Speilberg, Lion, Geffen, Patricof) are active in the Jewish community.

It's too early to tell much, except that both Clinton and Obama have their fans. As the article notes, they are also not the only game in town. Some New Yorkers are close to former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani while John Edwards, a former trial lawyer, is well connected in many of the most politically active law firms. But Edwards, at least, will need a fundraising base similar to Howard Dean's in `03 - which included oodles of small donors.

What the article doesn't investigate is what they are hoping their candidate will actually do, beyond, of course, get elected. It would be good to know, because it represents much of what politicians understand to be the Jewish agenda. Jewish orgs can proclaim a Jewish agenda (shaped increasingly by big dollar donors), but Jewish political contibuters get their say too. And best believe pols are listening.

The rest of us regular Jews can have our say too, but it can be a little more difficult. We have some money, but not big money. We are civicly engaged and politically active citizens, which helps. There are very few of us, but our votes do matter in a few key swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada). And we can speak from a Jewish place with a moral voice that resonates with others.

If we do all of those things, particularly more of the last, we can strengthen the third Jewish political voice.

[X-posted with Jspot]

We begin with the most interesting - Mitt Romney, the former Republican governor of Massachussets and an avowed Mormon. According to The Phoenix, Romney is actively moving to court the Jewish vote, and more importantly Jewish gelt:

In October, he hired Noam Neusner, former-White House liaison to the Jewish community, as an adviser. And when Romney announced his 10 national finance co-chairs last week, one was former ambassador Mel Sembler -- a mega-fundraiser from Florida and honorary chair of the Republican Jewish Coalition.

As goes the old saying, "Jews earn like Episcopalians and vote like Puerto Ricans" and Republican outreach to Jews will revolve heavily around the Israel issue and outreach to wealthy, conservative Jews. So far, Romney's mitzvah list includes Sam Fox, Lewis Eisenberg, Marc Lipschultz, Fred Zeidman, Sheldon Adelson, Dawn Arnall, Eric Tanenblatt, and Theodore Cutler.

If you have the scoop on Jewish outreach in other presidential campaigns, please let us know.